SAO PAULO, March 3, 2026, 10:32 (BRT) — Regular session
PETR4.SA, the preferred shares of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras, climbed 1.6% to 41.80 reais early Tuesday, pushing the oil giant’s rally into a third session. Shares surged 4.6% the previous day.
This matters for Petrobras, which finds itself at the intersection of surging crude prices and domestic fuel sales. How the company sets those prices—whether it lets global oil spikes hit local pumps or not—has a direct impact on profits. Put differently, “pass-through” refers to how fast pricier crude gets reflected at the pump.
That’s not just a local issue. Brazil’s Treasury Secretary Rogerio Ceron pointed out that rising oil prices mean more public income from royalties and Petrobras dividends. But he cautioned: if those prices stay high, inflation could flare up and force the central bank to wrap up its rate-cutting cycle sooner than planned.
Crude prices pushed higher Tuesday. Brent added $6.05, or 7.8%, to reach $83.79 a barrel by 1143 GMT, after hitting its strongest level since July 2024. Shipping steered clear of the Strait of Hormuz and freight rates surged, according to Reuters.
Petrobras is pushing back on talk of a swift change in fuel prices. CEO Magda Chambriard told Reuters on Monday that the company “historically does not pass through sudden oil prices volatility” to Brazil’s domestic market, as the group weighs the impact of the conflict. Executive director Claudio Schlosser noted Petrobras has “alternative routes outside the conflict zone,” saying most imports are sourced away from the crisis area and “the few that do exist can be redirected.” Reuters
Analysts are starting to split on what happens next: a brief jump if flows pick up again, or a more drawn-out squeeze if the disruption sticks around. Citi put Brent somewhere between $80 and $90 a barrel for the next week, but said it would likely retreat to $70 if things calm down. Wood Mackenzie flagged the risk of crude topping $100 if tankers can’t get moving through Hormuz soon enough.
Petrobras shareholders are focused less on the latest Brent number and more on timing issues. The length of the disruption matters—does it push Petrobras to rely more heavily on pricier imports, while putting off any move on local prices?
Petrobras has its own timeline to watch. The company said in a notice that it will release fourth-quarter earnings after the close on March 5, with a webcast to follow on March 6.
