NEW YORK, Jan 3, 2026, 06:53 ET — Market closed
- President Donald Trump said the United States struck Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro; two sources told Reuters that PDVSA’s oil production and refining operations were running normally.
- Phillips 66 shares rose 1.2% to $130.57 on Friday, setting the baseline before weekend headlines hit energy markets.
- MarketBeat data shows Wall Street’s average PSX price target at $147.82, but near-term direction hinges on crude’s next move and refining margins.
President Donald Trump said the United States carried out a “large scale strike” in Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro, a shock escalation that traders expect to reverberate across oil and energy shares when U.S. markets reopen. Reuters
With Wall Street shut for the weekend, Phillips 66 investors are left to handicap the first oil-price reaction and any policy follow-through before Monday’s cash session.
Why it matters now: Venezuela is a major crude producer, and conflict risk can quickly reprice supply expectations. For refiners such as Phillips 66, abrupt swings in crude can change near-term profitability even if fuel demand is steady.
Oil ended 2025 under pressure, and prices were still soft heading into the weekend. Brent settled at $60.75 a barrel on Friday and U.S. West Texas Intermediate finished at $57.32, Reuters reported.
Phillips 66 shares closed up 1.2% at $130.57 on Friday. Marathon Petroleum and Valero Energy also finished higher, up about 1.6% and 1.5%, respectively.
For PSX, the market’s first question is whether higher crude translates into weaker refining economics. Refining margins — often tracked via “crack spreads,” the difference between crude costs and the value of fuels like gasoline and diesel — can tighten if crude rises faster than products.
In Reuters reporting on the Venezuela strike, MST Marquee analyst Saul Kavonic said: “Oil prices were likely to jump on the near-term risk to supply.” Reuters
Early indications on the ground suggested limited damage to oil infrastructure. Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA’s production and refining were operating normally and key facilities had not suffered damage, two sources familiar with operations told Reuters.
That reduces the odds of an immediate supply outage, but investors will also be watching for any shift in sanctions and enforcement that could change Venezuelan flows over time. Reuters reported on Friday that the Trump administration imposed sanctions this week on four companies and associated oil tankers it said were operating in Venezuela’s oil sector.
Phillips 66 has its own near-term catalysts, but none land this weekend. The company said it will release fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Feb. 4 and host a webcast at noon ET that day.
Investors will also look for any fresh comments on capital allocation and segment performance when CEO Mark Lashier speaks at a Goldman Sachs energy conference on Jan. 6, the company said.
On valuations, the consensus view remains constructive. MarketBeat’s compilation shows a “Moderate Buy” analyst consensus for Phillips 66 and an average 12-month price target of $147.82, implying about 13% upside from Friday’s close. MarketBeat
Technically, PSX ended Friday about 10% below its 52-week high of $144.96. Traders will watch whether the stock holds near Friday’s intraday low around $128.71 if crude strength pressures refiners at the open.
Before Monday’s session, attention turns to crude’s first tradable reaction when futures resume and to any clarity from Washington and Caracas on what comes next. Oil traders also have an OPEC+ meeting on Sunday on their radar, Reuters reported, adding another potential catalyst for price direction.
