New York, Jan 14, 2026, 15:54 EST — Regular session
- Rivian shares dropped roughly 8% following UBS’s downgrade of the EV maker to “Sell”
- Analysts highlight a lack of immediate autonomy drivers and a more challenging backdrop approaching R2
- Investors are eyeing Rivian’s Feb. 12 earnings report for clues on cash flow and launch schedules
Rivian Automotive shares dropped roughly 7.6%, closing at $17.42 Wednesday afternoon, following UBS’s downgrade of the EV maker to “Sell.” 1
Investors have been banking on Rivian’s autonomy and software angle, hoping the cheaper R2 model will boost sales. But with 2025 deliveries dropping 18% and barely hitting estimates, the pressure mounts on the next product cycle and the earnings outlook. 2
UBS analyst Joseph Spak highlighted “elevated expectations” surrounding AI and the upcoming R2, adding that “most AI-related news is already reflected” in the stock. He also noted “limited near-term catalysts” from autonomous driving. A downgrade means a broker is lowering its rating, while a price target indicates where they expect the shares to trade over the next year. 3
Rivian is sharpening its go-to-market strategy. The company named Greg Revelle as chief customer officer. CEO RJ Scaringe highlighted Revelle’s “deep experience across eCommerce, marketing and automotive.” Revelle himself pointed to Rivian’s “commitment to AI and software-defined vehicles” as the key draw. 4
The bigger threat to the bull case on Rivian is all about timing—and cash on hand. Wolfe Research downgraded the stock to underperform, forecasting a 2026 EBITDA loss of $2.1 billion, a key profit measure before interest, taxes, and some non-cash expenses. They also flagged free cash flow burn could hit $4 billion or more as expenses and investments ramp up. The firm expects R2 production to push late into 2026 and delays in major autonomy rollouts. 5
Pressure wasn’t confined to one name. Tesla slid roughly 2.2%, while Lucid lost about 1.1%, dragging the broader EV sector lower.
Investors will be closely watching if Rivian can dial back expenses without jeopardizing the R2 rollout, while also laying out a clearer path to better gross margins. Any sign that demand is faltering again could weigh heavily on the stock after its recent surge.
Rivian’s next major event is set for Feb. 12, when it will release its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings after the market closes, followed by a webcast at 5 p.m. ET. 6
