Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) was higher in late-morning trading Thursday as investors digested a rapid stream of developments reshaping the retail brokerage landscape: a bigger push into sports-focused “event contracts” (prediction markets), intensifying rivalry from Coinbase’s move into stocks and event contracts, and a new round of analyst commentary that continues to reset expectations after HOOD’s breakout year.
As of 10:30 a.m. ET (15:30 UTC) on Dec. 18, 2025, Robinhood shares traded at $122.11, up $6.31 (+5.45%). The stock ranged between $118.31 and $124.21 during the session and had traded ~9.16 million shares by that time.
Below is what’s driving the move, how Wall Street is framing the next 12 months, and the biggest risks still hanging over the HOOD story.
HOOD stock today: a momentum name with real catalysts behind the tape
Robinhood’s share price action on Dec. 18 fits a pattern investors have come to expect in 2025: high-beta swings tied to product headlines, crypto-adjacent sentiment, and changing expectations for engagement-driven revenue lines (options, crypto, and now event contracts). HOOD’s market cap sat around $127 billion at the time of the mid-morning quote, with the stock trading at a P/E near 58 based on available market data.
While HOOD’s move Thursday is notable, it’s also happening in a market that’s actively repricing the “retail trading platform” category as more players converge on the same customer: active, mobile-first traders looking for one app that does everything.
The headline catalyst: Robinhood expands sports event contracts (and adds “combos”)
The most immediate narrative driver is Robinhood’s continued buildout of sports-focused event contracts, including wagers tied to individual pro football player performance (touchdowns, passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards) and new “preset combos” that bundle multiple outcomes into one contract. [1]
Reuters reported that Robinhood’s latest rollout lets users go beyond “who wins” and target more specific outcomes, while also introducing combo-style contracts that only pay out if all included predictions are correct. [2]
Barron’s characterized the push as Robinhood “going big” on sports within prediction markets—timed as interest rises heading into the NFL postseason—and noted the company has also discussed plans for custom combos. [3]
Why investors care: prediction markets are becoming a real business line
What started as a novelty product is now being treated as a potentially material revenue stream. In its reporting on Robinhood’s latest prediction-market upgrades, Reuters cited industry data suggesting the monthly value of trades in prediction markets has grown dramatically—from under $100 million in early 2024 to over $13 billion more recently—underscoring why major platforms are rushing in. [4]
Axios also reported Robinhood says more than 1 million customers have traded 11 billion contracts since its prediction markets debuted late last year, and described the category as Robinhood’s fastest-growing revenue line. [5]
That combination—fast growth, high engagement, and a product that behaves like trading—helps explain why HOOD can rally even when other parts of the fintech tape are mixed.
Competition heats up: Coinbase moves into stock trading and event contracts
Robinhood’s gains Thursday are also being interpreted through a competitive lens. On Dec. 18, Reuters reported that Coinbase said it will begin letting users trade stocks and event contracts, partnering with Kalshi, and also plans to launch tokenized stocks in coming months as it expands beyond crypto. [6]
This matters for HOOD investors for two reasons:
- Retail wallet-share is up for grabs. Coinbase’s push directly targets the “all assets under one roof” strategy that helped Robinhood scale.
- Event contracts are turning into a crowded battleground. Reuters explicitly framed Coinbase’s move as stepping onto the turf of brokerages including Robinhood and Interactive Brokers. [7]
In other words, prediction markets may be a growth engine—but they’re also becoming a competitive arena where product design, pricing, and regulatory footing could determine winners.
The regulatory overhang: are event contracts “trading” or “sports betting”?
If there’s a single factor that could most quickly change the trajectory of Robinhood’s event-contract ambitions, it’s regulation—especially at the state level.
Reuters noted that Robinhood’s expansion comes as some state regulators seek tougher oversight, arguing these contracts resemble sports betting and could encourage speculative behavior among retail investors, while industry participants maintain they fall under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). [8]
That tension is not theoretical. In a separate Reuters report, a Massachusetts judge questioned whether prediction-market operator Kalshi can legally offer sports prediction products in the state without running afoul of gaming regulators; the state argued the product amounts to unlicensed sports wagering and raised concerns about consumer protection. The judge said he planned to rule in January. [9]
The industry response: a “Coalition for Prediction Markets”
Reuters also reported that Kalshi and Crypto.com launched a national alliance—the Coalition for Prediction Markets—that includes Robinhood and Coinbase, positioning the group as a unified voice to strengthen a federal framework and push back against state-level overreach. [10]
For HOOD shareholders, the near-term takeaway is straightforward: product expansion is bullish, but regulatory outcomes could redefine what’s allowed, where, and how it must be offered.
Robinhood’s second pillar: AI tools and “Cortex” aim to deepen engagement
Robinhood’s current product story isn’t only about event contracts. It’s also about keeping users inside the app with tools that feel “pro-grade.”
Axios reported Robinhood is launching Cortex, an on-platform AI assistant intended to help users chat through trading ideas and execute orders, expected to roll out early next year for Robinhood Gold subscribers. Axios also described “Digests,” AI-generated rundowns of what’s driving a user’s portfolio. [11]
Barron’s likewise noted updates tied to Robinhood’s AI investing tool, framing it as part of a broader push to increase engagement among active traders. [12]
From a stock perspective, AI features tend to be harder to model than transactional revenue lines—but they can influence the core metrics Wall Street watches: activity, retention, and assets on platform.
Global expansion still in play: Indonesia deal targets a major crypto hub
Robinhood’s growth narrative also has an international chapter. Earlier this month, Reuters reported Robinhood agreed to acquire Indonesian brokerage Buana Capital Sekuritas and licensed digital asset trader Pedagang Aset Kripto, with the deal expected to close in the first half of 2026. [13]
Reuters cited Indonesia’s large base of capital market investors and crypto traders and noted Robinhood didn’t disclose financial terms. The company’s shares were already up sharply year-to-date by early December, according to Reuters’ reporting. [14]
For investors looking past the next quarter, the strategic implication is clear: Robinhood is trying to turn its U.S.-built product machine into a cross-border platform—especially in markets where crypto participation is high.
Analyst forecasts and HOOD stock price targets: what Wall Street is saying now
With HOOD up significantly in 2025 and repeatedly expanding into new lines (sports contracts, AI tooling, international M&A), analyst models have been moving—sometimes sharply.
1) A fresh upgrade: Truist moves to “strong-buy”
MarketBeat reported that Truist upgraded Robinhood to “strong-buy” (as covered in a Dec. 18 item), while also summarizing a broader “moderate buy” consensus and pointing to the company’s latest reported quarterly beat (per its aggregation). [15]
2) Where price targets cluster (and why numbers differ by source)
Different data vendors show different snapshots of consensus. For example:
- Benzinga’s analyst page showed a consensus price target of ~$124.54 (with a high of $180 and low of $47) based on its tracked analyst set, and noted recent actions from firms including Truist, Barclays, and Cantor Fitzgerald. [16]
- A Zacks-written analysis published on Nasdaq referenced a mean price target around $155.39 from a set of 18 short-term targets and framed that as roughly 30% upside from then-current levels, while also emphasizing the limitations of price targets as predictive tools. [17]
These differences don’t necessarily mean analysts are “contradicting” each other—often they reflect:
- different cut-off times,
- different included firms,
- and whether stale targets remain in the sample.
3) The “why” behind bullish resets: prediction markets monetization
One strain of bullish commentary focuses on event contracts as a potential new monetization layer. A Motley Fool analysis published Dec. 18 referenced Mizuho commentary estimating a prediction markets run-rate and described upward revisions to 2026–2027 revenue assumptions (as presented in that analysis). [18]
The bull case for Robinhood stock heading into 2026
Optimists argue HOOD is no longer “just a brokerage app” and now has multiple growth levers:
- Event contracts as a new asset class: Robinhood is expanding the catalog (sports, player contracts, combos), pushing frequency and engagement. [19]
- Platform convergence: Competitors moving in (Coinbase, others) validate the opportunity—suggesting event contracts could become a mainstream category. [20]
- AI-driven retention: If Cortex and portfolio digests reduce friction and increase confidence, that may translate into more activity (and more revenue opportunities). [21]
- International optionality: The Indonesia acquisition plan gives Robinhood a pathway into a high-growth, crypto-active market in Southeast Asia. [22]
- A broader market structure tailwind: Reuters reported that round-the-clock trading is gaining traction and cited examples including brokerages such as Robinhood extending trading hours; the debate is increasingly about implementation, not whether the shift happens. [23]
The bear case: regulation, product risk, and valuation sensitivity
Skeptics don’t dispute that Robinhood is innovating—they question whether the economics and regulatory durability justify the current expectations.
Key risks investors are watching:
- Regulatory whiplash for event contracts: Reuters’ reporting on state-level actions and litigation (including the Massachusetts case involving Kalshi) highlights uncertainty about where and how these products can be offered. [24]
- “Trading vs. betting” optics: Critics argue event contracts resemble sports betting and could encourage speculative behavior, raising scrutiny risks even if products are offered through CFTC-linked venues. [25]
- Crowded competition: Coinbase’s expansion plan shows how quickly rivals can replicate features and compete on distribution. [26]
- Extended-hours liquidity concerns: Reuters noted critics warn round-the-clock trading can introduce price distortions due to limited liquidity overnight—an issue that matters more for retail-heavy platforms. [27]
- Valuation compression risk: With HOOD trading at a rich multiple (based on available market data), any disappointment in activity metrics or regulatory setbacks can hit the stock harder.
What to watch next for HOOD stock
For readers tracking Robinhood into year-end and early 2026, these are the likely catalysts:
- Regulatory headlines on event contracts (state actions, court rulings, and any CFTC-related developments). [28]
- Further product expansion in prediction markets, especially custom combo functionality and new sports coverage. [29]
- Cortex rollout timing and adoption among Gold subscribers—does it increase engagement without triggering “advice” scrutiny? [30]
- Indonesia acquisition progress and any additional international moves. [31]
- Competitive responses from Coinbase and others as “all-in-one trading” becomes the new baseline. [32]
Bottom line: On Dec. 18, 2025, HOOD is trading like a company in the middle of a strategic pivot—from a commission-free brokerage into a broader retail trading ecosystem spanning sports-linked event contracts, AI tools, and potential international expansion. The upside case rests on whether prediction markets become a durable, regulated revenue line and whether Robinhood can maintain differentiation as rivals flood in. [33]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.barrons.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.axios.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.axios.com, 12. www.barrons.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.benzinga.com, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. www.fool.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.axios.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.barrons.com, 30. www.axios.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com
