DETROIT, August 19, 2026, 1:00 a.m. EDT — U.S. markets are closed.
- Rocket closed Tuesday at $13.99, down 3.52%, for a third straight decline.
- The 30-year mortgage rate eased two basis points to 6.67%, its first drop in six weeks.
- Rocket’s Q2 refinance share reached 14.3%, but refinancing still needs a larger rate move.
Rocket Companies, Inc. NYSE:RKT fell 3.52% on Tuesday even after mortgage rates edged lower. The shares closed at $13.99 and underperformed the Nasdaq Composite’s 1.33% decline. It was Rocket’s third consecutive loss.
The investor issue is the size of the rate move. The average 30-year mortgage slipped only two basis points, to 6.67%. That barely changes a borrower’s monthly payment and offers little immediate help to refinancing volumes.
| Tuesday market snapshot | Close | Daily move | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rocket Companies NYSE:RKT | $13.99 | -3.52% | Third straight decline |
| UWM Holdings NYSE:UWMC | $1.44 | -3.36% | Mortgage peer also weak |
| MGIC Investment NYSE:MTG | $31.12 | +0.03% | Mortgage insurer held flat |
| Radian Group NYSE:RDN | $36.85 | -0.54% | Mortgage insurer outperformed |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,289.71 | -1.33% | Broad risk-off session |
A standard $300,000, 30-year loan costs about $1,930 monthly at 6.67%, excluding taxes, insurance and fees. At 6.69%, the payment is roughly $1,934. The weekly decline therefore saves about $4 a month, based on a standard amortization calculation.
| Mortgage-rate comparison | Rate | Change versus current | Monthly payment on $300,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current 30-year fixed | 6.67% | — | $1,930 |
| Prior week | 6.69% | +2 bps | $1,934 |
| Year earlier | 6.58% | -9 bps | $1,912 |
| Late February 2026 | 5.98% | -69 bps | $1,795 |
The same loan at February’s 5.98% rate would cost about $1,795 monthly. That $135 gap shows why a two-basis-point dip is not yet a refinancing catalyst. The 15-year rate also fell, to 5.96% from 6.01%.
Rocket enters this rate test with greater scale. It closed $49.1 billion of mortgages in the second quarter, up 9.8% from Q1. Adjusted EBITDA rose 3.8% to $766 million even as total gain-on-sale margin narrowed by 26 basis points.
| Rocket operating comparison | Q2 2026 | Q1 2026 | Sequential change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue, net | $2.78 billion | $2.94 billion | -5.5% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $766 million | $738 million | +3.8% |
| Closed mortgage volume | $49.1 billion | $44.7 billion | +9.8% |
| Total gain-on-sale margin | 2.48% | 2.74% | -26 bps |
| Total liquidity | $11.2 billion | $9.4 billion | +19.1% |
Its second-quarter refinance market share rose to a record 14.3% from 12.2% in late 2025. Purchase share increased to 6.2% from 5.5%. The $2.0 trillion servicing portfolio covered 9.1 million loans, giving Rocket a large pool for future recapture.
Chief Executive Varun Krishna said Rocket achieved record purchase and refinance share in “one of the toughest spring housing markets in years.” He also called Q2 its most profitable quarter in four years. The margin data suggest scale helped, but pricing remained competitive. Company statement
Wall Street remains constructive, though targets moved lower after earnings. Ten of 19 tracked analysts rate Rocket a buy and nine rate it hold. The $19.87 average target implies about 42% upside from Tuesday’s close.
| Analyst recommendations | Rating | Latest target | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBC — Daniel Perlin, Aug. 12 | Sector Perform | $16 | Raised from $15 |
| KBW — Bose George, Aug. 10 | Outperform | $19 | Cut from $20 |
| JPMorgan — Richard Shane, Aug. 7 | Neutral | $14 | Cut from $15.50 |
| Benchmark — Daniel Kurnos, Aug. 7 | Buy | $19 | Cut from $21 |
| Stephens — Kyle Joseph, Aug. 7 | Overweight | $20 | Cut from $22.50 |
| 19-analyst consensus | Moderate Buy | $19.87 average | $14 low / $25 high |
The near-term hurdle is unchanged. Rocket guided to $2.5 billion to $2.7 billion of third-quarter adjusted revenue, below Q2’s $2.76 billion. Investors need either a deeper rate decline or further share gains to offset a smaller mortgage market.
Risks: Long-term Treasury yields could push mortgage rates higher again. Integration of Redfin and Mr. Cooper also raises execution risk, while aggressive pricing can pressure gain-on-sale margins. A faster rate drop would improve refinancing demand but could reduce servicing-rights values.
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Rocket Companies
$14 low · $25 high
