Riyadh, March 1, 2026, 09:35 GMT+3 — Premarket.
Saudi shares open the week under renewed pressure, rattled by U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. Analysts are watching for any sign of de-escalation, but warn oil prices could jump fast if the conflict hits supplies. “Unless de-escalation signals emerge swiftly, we expect a significant upward repricing of oil at the start of the week,” said Jorge Leon, senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy. Reuters
Why it matters now: The Saudi Exchange leans heavily on oil. A spike in crude can jolt the index—sometimes sharply—depending on whether traders see the move as a windfall or as a warning sign.
Saudi stocks lost ground Thursday, as the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) closed down 1.28% at 10,709.04. Shares of Saudi Aramco tumbled 3.03% to finish at 24.96 riyals. Al Rajhi Bank gave up 1.37%, settling at 101.00 riyals. Saudi National Bank shed 1.65% to end at 41.68, while STC eased 1.51% to 41.82.
Oil prices surged Friday, with traders factoring in Middle East supply risks. Brent finished the day 2.45% higher at $72.48 a barrel, and U.S. crude gained 2.78%, closing at $67.02, Reuters reported.
OPEC+ will be back in focus Sunday, with the group—comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies—considering a potential April production hike of 137,000 barrels per day, according to three Reuters sources. “Oil prices are bloated with a decent geopolitical risk premium,” said Norbert Rucker, who leads economics & next generation research at Julius Baer. Reuters
Aramco continues to draw attention after scrapping liquefied petroleum gas shipments from its Juaymah export terminal through March. The move, prompted by structural damage and ongoing repairs, has traders telling Reuters that the resulting supply pinch is being felt across Asia.
Right now, Gulf markets are watching the Strait of Hormuz, where about 20% of the world’s oil moves through a narrow route. Reuters reports several oil majors, tanker companies, and trading houses have put crude, fuel, and LNG shipments on hold after Tehran declared the strait closed to navigation. Shipbrokers flagged mounting disruption, and vessel trackers are picking up traffic piling up around ports like Fujairah.
Efforts to ease nuclear-safety concerns surfaced as well. The International Atomic Energy Agency reported it found no signs of radiological impact from the strikes and said it was keeping a close watch on developments.
For Saudi stocks, the downside is pretty straightforward: an escalation means shipping bogs down, risk appetite sours, and banks along with high-beta locals are likely the first to get hit—even with oil prices up. Flip side, if tensions cool quickly, that “risk premium”—the extra investors shell out for uncertainty—can come off oil just as fast, sending the trade in the opposite direction.
The focus shifts to Sunday’s open and the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting, as traders scan for clues on April supply and if Saudi Arabia will shoulder a heavier balancing load. The Saudi Exchange operates from 10:00 to 15:00 Riyadh time, after a pre-opening phase.
