Shell plc (NYSE: SHEL; LSE: SHEL) is heading into mid-December with investors focused on a familiar Big Oil question: how long can the company keep behaving like a cash-return machine and still reload its resource base for the next decade?
As of Dec. 13, 2025 (a weekend, when U.S. markets are closed), Shell’s U.S.-listed ADR last closed at $72.33.
What’s making the stock especially “watchable” right now is the collision of several storylines at once:
- a new $3.5 billion buyback cycle (and fresh daily repurchase disclosures),
- reports Shell is in advanced talks for a multi‑billion‑dollar U.S. Gulf acquisition,
- a steady drumbeat of portfolio reshaping (including Brazil),
- an intensifying LNG legal dispute and broader questions about LNG margins,
- and a wave of analyst takes that range from “still a Buy” to “no longer cheap.”
Below is a comprehensive, publication-ready roundup of the current news, the latest forecasts, and the most relevant analysis shaping Shell’s near-term narrative as of 13.12.2025.
Shell stock snapshot on Dec. 13: where the share price sits and what traders are keying on
Shell’s ADR ended the latest session at $72.33.
In practical terms, Shell’s short-term share moves tend to be less about a single headline and more about a blend of (1) oil and gas prices, (2) cash returns (dividends + buybacks), and (3) whether the company can keep its upstream and LNG engines productive without overpaying for growth.
Right now, (2) and (3) are doing most of the talking.
The shareholder-return engine: buybacks are front and center again
Shell’s $3.5 billion buyback program (and how it’s structured)
Shell launched a $3.5 billion share buyback program announced on Oct. 30, 2025, designed to run for roughly three months, with all repurchased shares intended to be cancelled. The company set it up via two non-discretionary broker contracts covering both London and Netherlands trading venues, running up to and including Jan. 30, 2026 (subject to the terms disclosed). [1]
Shell also indicated it intended to complete the program before its Q4 2025 results announcement. [2]
Fresh daily repurchases
Shell’s day-to-day buyback execution continues to generate “quiet” headlines that matter to long-horizon shareholders. A company release distributed via GlobeNewswire reports that on Dec. 12, 2025, Shell purchased shares for cancellation across trading venues as part of the ongoing program. [3]
Why it matters: buybacks can support earnings per share (EPS) over time and often signal management confidence in the durability of cash flow—especially when repeated quarter after quarter.
Dividend watch: the next payment date is near
Shell’s investor communications confirm that the Q3 2025 dividend cash payments in euros and pounds were set using exchange rates over early December, with the dividend payable on Dec. 18, 2025 to eligible shareholders on the register as of mid-November. [4]
For calendar planning, Shell’s dividend timetable also lays out key upcoming dates for announcements and ex-dividend timing across quarters. [5]
The fundamentals: what Shell reported most recently
Shell’s most recent quarterly reporting (Q3 2025) reinforced the company’s “cash-first” identity:
- Adjusted earnings:$5.4 billion
- Cash flow from operations (CFFO):$12.2 billion
- Free cash flow:$10.0 billion (as shown in the quarter materials)
- Net debt:$41.2 billion (as shown in the same reporting package)
- Another $3.5 billion buyback cycle was commenced, described as the 16th consecutive quarter of at least $3 billion in buybacks. [6]
The Q3 package also highlighted operating performance in deepwater assets, including strong production in Brazil and the Gulf, plus a standout quarter for the Marketing business. [7]
The key investor takeaway: Shell is still behaving like a disciplined allocator—prioritizing distributions while trying to keep its upstream and LNG portfolio resilient.
The biggest current news items impacting Shell stock in December 2025
1) Report: Shell in advanced talks to buy LLOG Exploration (over $3 billion)
Reuters reported Shell is in advanced talks to buy LLOG Exploration Offshore in a deal worth more than $3 billion, citing sources. The report described LLOG as producing around 30,000 boepd with expectations of significant growth by decade’s end, and framed the potential deal as a way to deepen Shell’s U.S. Gulf upstream portfolio. [8]
Why this matters for the stock:
- This would be a classic Shell move: buy long-life barrels in a region where Shell already has operational expertise.
- It also lines up with the idea—frequently raised by analysts—that Shell may lean more on M&A to maintain production rather than relying solely on exploration.
2) Brazil: Shell reportedly seeks a buyer for a 20% stake in Gato do Mato cluster
Reuters also reported Shell is seeking a buyer for a 20% stake in its Gato do Mato offshore Brazil cluster, citing a Bloomberg report. Shell had previously held 50% and acquired an additional 20% from TotalEnergies earlier in 2025, and the report described Shell as looking to raise funds while remaining operator. [9]
Why this matters:
- It’s a reminder that Shell’s “portfolio high-grading” isn’t just a slogan; the company actively tunes its ownership mix to balance funding needs and operational control.
- Brazil remains a core growth engine, but capital discipline remains the governing religion.
3) South Africa: PetroSA approval for Shell to become majority partner in Block 2C
Reuters reported that South Africa’s PetroSA approved a deal to give Shell Offshore a 60% stake in Block 2C offshore the country’s west coast, with Shell committing a $25 million signing bonus and a full cost carry estimated around $135–$150 million for three wells. [10]
Why this matters:
- The Orange Basin is an exploration hotspot, but exploration is expensive, slow, and politically/environmentally contested.
- For investors, this is a “2027+” style optionality bet—not tomorrow’s earnings.
4) Namibia: Shell prepares a new drilling campaign (April 2026 target)
Reuters reported Shell is preparing to launch a new drilling campaign in Namibia’s PEL 39 exploration block from April 2026, after awarding a rig contract. Reuters also noted Shell is revisiting the block after writing down about $400 million earlier in 2025 on a discovery deemed commercially unviable. [11]
Why this matters:
- It’s a high-risk, high-upside storyline: Shell is willing to go back into the arena, but Namibia’s timeline is long and the economics must be real, not just geologically exciting.
5) Trinidad and Tobago: Aphrodite gas project still needs government approvals
Reuters reported Trinidad is awaiting a field development plan before approving Shell’s Aphrodite offshore gas project, despite Shell having taken a positive final investment decision earlier in 2025. The report said first gas is expected in 2027 with peak production around 18,400 boepd, and noted the wider context of gas supply shortfalls affecting Atlantic LNG (where Shell holds a 45% stake). [12]
Why this matters:
- It’s a reminder that “gas growth” depends on permitting and government sign-offs—not just capital.
- The Atlantic LNG supply tightness angle matters because LNG is central to Shell’s strategy.
6) LNG Canada: Train 2 still down after initial start-up (sources)
Reuters reported that Shell-led LNG Canada’s Train 2 remained down nearly a month after its initial start-up, citing sources, and described ongoing technical issues since the facility began ramping up in 2025. [13]
Why this matters:
- LNG projects are supposed to be multi-decade cash machines. Early reliability issues can affect near-term volumes, cash generation, and confidence in ramp schedules.
7) U.S. Gulf of Mexico: temporary shut-ins at Whale and Perdido due to pipeline shutdown
Reuters reported Shell temporarily shut in output at its Whale and Perdido platforms due to a shutdown of the Hoover Offshore Oil Pipeline System, with Shell expecting production to resume shortly after the disruption. [14]
Why this matters:
- Operational interruptions are usually “noise” for a company Shell’s size—but they can influence near-term volumes and sentiment, especially when clustered with other operational headlines.
8) Russia / sanctions complexity: Shell seeks to dissolve a Rosneft JV tied to CPC stake
Reuters reported Shell wants to dissolve a joint venture with Rosneft through which it holds part of its interest in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, in a context that includes U.S. sanctions on Rosneft announced in October. Reuters said Shell’s overall CPC stake is about 7.4% via multiple entities, and Shell wants to maintain the size of its overall stake. [15]
Why this matters:
- This is about risk management: simplifying structures that became awkward—or risky—under sanctions regimes.
9) LNG legal battle: Venture Global pushes back on Shell’s fraud claims in arbitration fight
Reuters reported Venture Global rejected Shell’s fraud allegations related to LNG cargo arbitration and accused Shell of breaching arbitration confidentiality, while also describing an email suggesting Shell had interest in a commercial resolution. [16]
Why this matters:
- Contract disputes can be financially meaningful in LNG, especially when spot-vs-contract economics swing wildly.
- Legal uncertainty can also muddy forward expectations for trading and supply.
10) Shell + SLB: “agentic AI” collaboration for upstream efficiency
Reuters reported that SLB and Shell are collaborating to develop digital and AI tools aimed at improving upstream performance and efficiency, building on their existing technology relationship (including SLB’s Petrel subsurface software). [17]
SLB’s own release adds that the collaboration aims to build an open data and AI infrastructure across subsurface, well construction and production workflows using SLB’s Lumi platform. [18]
Why this matters:
- Investors tend to like anything that plausibly lowers cost, boosts uptime, and improves drilling/production decisions—especially if it scales across a global asset base.
The strategic debate: is Shell running out of “new barrels”?
A Reuters Breakingviews analysis argued that Shell faces a strategic headache: maintaining oil output over the long run as legacy production declines. The piece pointed to estimates that, on current trends, output could fall to roughly 2.4 million boed by 2035, implying a ~500,000 boed “hole” that would need filling (ascribed in the piece to UBS analysts). It also suggested this helps explain why Shell has signaled greater openness to M&A, mentioning Portugal’s Galp as a potential candidate in that strategic logic. [19]
This analysis dovetails neatly with the Reuters report about LLOG talks: even a disciplined buyback-and-dividend story eventually has to answer one question—what’s the production base you’re buying back shares from? [20]
LNG outlook: Shell is leaning hard into gas—but the market is complicated
Shell has been consistent (sometimes blunt) about the centrality of LNG to its plan.
- Reuters reported CEO Wael Sawan said LNG would be Shell’s biggest contribution to the energy industry over the next decade, and reiterated expectations for LNG demand growth through 2040. [21]
- Reuters also reported that on Oct. 30 Shell and TotalEnergies flagged uncertainty in the timing of new LNG supply, while Sawan said he sees a balanced LNG market in 2026 and remains bullish longer-term. [22]
But LNG isn’t a one-way escalator. A Reuters commodities commentary in early December highlighted how rising U.S. natural gas prices and falling benchmark prices in Europe/Asia can squeeze LNG export margins as competition intensifies. [23]
For Shell investors, the practical implication is this:
- Shell can be structurally right about LNG demand growth,
- while still facing cyclical pressure on trading and margins depending on regional price spreads.
Analyst forecasts and price targets for Shell stock: what the Street expects now
Analyst targets are not promises, but they do give a useful “map of expectations”—especially for a mega-cap that rarely surprises unless commodities surprise first.
Consensus targets suggest moderate upside from current levels
MarketBeat’s consensus snapshot (based on the analysts it tracks) lists:
- an average 12‑month target around $79.91,
- with a high target around $91 and a low around $70. [24]
With Shell near $72 on the ADR close cited above, that points to something like low double‑digit implied upside on the average target—but with a wide band depending on oil/gas assumptions and investor appetite for Big Oil risk. [25]
Investing.com’s displayed consensus estimate for the ADR similarly clusters in the low-to-mid 80s (average target shown around 83, with high/low estimates also in the 90/upper‑70s range). [26]
Recent rating moves show a market split between “valuation” and “quality”
- UBS downgraded Shell to Neutral from Buy and lowered its price target (reported by Investing.com), citing valuation concerns after a strong run. [27]
- Interactive Investor’s write-up on that downgrade notes UBS’s 3,000p target framework and emphasizes that the call was driven more by valuation than by a collapse in Shell’s underlying business quality. [28]
- On the other side of the ledger, MarketBeat reports that JPMorgan raised its target and kept an Overweight rating (per its coverage of the note). [29]
- MarketScreener also reports Goldman Sachs reiterating a Buy stance (as summarized in its analyst-note coverage). [30]
The simplest way to interpret the spread:
- Bulls see Shell as a disciplined cash-return compounder with LNG and deepwater strengths.
- Skeptics increasingly frame Shell as a high-quality operator whose stock has already priced in a lot of that discipline—meaning future upside requires either higher commodities, flawless execution, or accretive M&A that doesn’t break the balance sheet.
What could move Shell shares next: the 2026 catalyst checklist
Looking forward from Dec. 13, here are the events and narrative pivots investors are likely to watch most closely:
- Buyback completion pace
The current $3.5B buyback program is designed to run into late January 2026 under the disclosed contract structure. [31] - Q4 2025 results and guidance
Shell’s published dividend timetable shows a Feb. 5, 2026 announcement date for the fourth-quarter 2025 slot, which typically becomes a focal point for capital return expectations and outlook commentary. [32] - Whether the LLOG talks become a signed deal
A confirmed acquisition would sharpen the market’s view on Shell’s willingness to do large upstream deals—and the price discipline it applies. [33] - LNG Canada reliability and ramp clarity
Operational consistency at major LNG assets is the difference between “strategic LNG narrative” and “cash actually arriving.” [34] - Exploration optionality (Namibia / Orange Basin)
These are slow-burn catalysts—high impact if successful, but unlikely to matter quarter-to-quarter unless Shell provides major updates. [35]
Risks investors should keep in view (because physics doesn’t care about your dividend thesis)
Even for a shareholder-friendly major like Shell, the real risk list is still very real:
- Commodity volatility: Oil and gas prices can overpower company-specific execution in the short run.
- LNG margin compression: Global LNG spreads can tighten as supply grows and regional prices shift. [36]
- Project execution risk: LNG Canada’s early issues are a reminder that big projects don’t always ramp cleanly. [37]
- Regulatory and legal friction: LNG contract disputes, sanctions-related restructuring, and permitting constraints can all create financial and operational drag. [38]
- M&A integration and valuation risk: Buying barrels can solve decline problems—if the price is right. [39]
Bottom line
As of Dec. 13, 2025, Shell’s stock setup is defined by a tension investors can actually quantify:
- The company is still generating substantial cash and using it to fund a large buyback program while maintaining dividends. [40]
- At the same time, Shell is actively shaping its future production base—via reported U.S. Gulf acquisition talks, continued exploration exposure in the Orange Basin, and portfolio moves in places like Brazil. [41]
- The LNG thesis remains central, but investors have to balance Shell’s long-term confidence with the messy realities of near-term LNG market dynamics and operational execution. [42]
- Wall Street’s price targets imply moderate upside from current levels, but recent rating shifts show valuation is becoming a louder part of the debate. [43]
References
1. www.shell.com, 2. www.shell.com, 3. www.globenewswire.com, 4. www.shell.com, 5. www.shell.com, 6. www.shell.com, 7. www.shell.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.slb.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.ii.co.uk, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. www.marketscreener.com, 31. www.shell.com, 32. www.shell.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.shell.com, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. www.reuters.com, 43. www.marketbeat.com
