New York, Jan 16, 2026, 06:13 EST — Premarket
- Spot silver down about 2% near $90.8/oz after touching $93.57 this week
- Stronger U.S. data lifted the dollar and cooled near-term Fed rate-cut bets
- Heavy retail ETF inflows have raised “crowded trade” talk in silver
Spot silver — the cash price for immediate delivery — fell to $90.82 an ounce by 6:02 a.m. ET, down $1.99, trimming a blistering run that set fresh records earlier this week. 1
The pullback tracked a firmer U.S. dollar after jobless claims fell to 198,000 last week, below forecasts, keeping the dollar index near a six-week high and pressuring dollar-priced metals. “Speculative traders are keeping an eye on $100 even though it would not be sustainable,” said Carsten Menke, an analyst at Julius Baer. 2
That matters now because silver is still up more than 14% on the week, even after Friday’s dip, and the market has been trading in big, fast swings. The record cash high was $93.57 in the prior session, leaving momentum traders debating whether this is a pause or the start of a sharper unwind.
Silver has also picked up a new kind of sponsorship: retail flows. Individual investors bought $921.8 million of silver-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over the last 30 days, Vanda Research said, and the iShares Silver Trust logged $69.2 million of retail inflows on Wednesday alone. Vanda described it as structural accumulation, while Invesco’s Kathy Kriskey flagged how quickly the metal has moved through long-watched levels. 3
The ETF activity matters because it can amplify the tape on both sides. Big daily creations and redemptions force physical buying or selling in the background, and that can tighten or loosen the market fast when investors all lean the same way.
In U.S. listed trading, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) was last marked at $83.32, with a last premarket print around $82.04, according to Investing.com. 4
Rates are the other driver traders keep coming back to. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said policy is in a “good place” and any calibration should be deliberate, language markets often read as a signal the Fed is comfortable pausing. 5
But the rally has its own built-in risk: silver is also an industrial metal, not just a store of value. “At some price level, fabricators and end users simply cannot absorb higher costs,” wrote Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, noting some users are already considering substitutes. 6
If U.S. data keeps surprising to the upside, the downside case is straightforward — a stronger dollar, fewer rate cuts priced, and more profit-taking in a crowded trade. The flip side is just as clear: softer data or fresh geopolitical stress can pull money back into precious metals quickly, and silver has been moving like it’s on a hair trigger.
The next hard catalyst is the Fed’s Jan. 27-28 meeting, with traders watching every major U.S. data print before then for what it does to the dollar, yields and the durability of this silver price surge. 7
