WASHINGTON, May 25, 2026, 09:02 EDT
- Social Security is now projected to get a 3.9% cost-of-living jump in 2027, up from the 2.8% COLA paid out for 2026.
- The official figure gets decided in October. It will be based on the inflation data for July to September.
- Rising Medicare, housing, utility and grocery costs may take up most of the gain.
Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment for 2027 could rise 3.9%, according to a new projection, after April inflation figures drove up the index used to set the annual increase. The Senior Citizens League lifted its estimate from 2.8%, Yahoo Finance said Monday.
Social Security is a key income stream for tens of millions in the U.S., so inflation picking up now hits retiree budgets ahead of the next scheduled bump. Benefits for Social Security and Supplemental Security Income went up 2.8% for 75 million Americans in 2026, according to the Social Security Administration.
COLA, or cost-of-living adjustment, is a yearly increase to Social Security and SSI payments to keep up with inflation. The Social Security Administration sets the adjustment based on the CPI-W, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, using third-quarter data by law.
COLA for 2027 could hit 3.9%, according to an updated May 12 model from The Senior Citizens League. That’s 1.1 percentage points higher than this year’s COLA. At this rate, average retired workers would see monthly benefits jump to $2,162.33, up by $81.17 from $2,081.16, the group said.
April’s data offer some direction. Consumer prices went up 0.6% in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported, after rising 0.9% in March. The all-items index is 3.8% higher than a year ago. CPI-W gained 3.9% over the year, the same as the updated Social Security estimate.
Energy pushed higher in April. The energy index climbed 3.8% in the month and is now up 17.9% from a year ago. Gasoline prices are up 28.4% on the year, according to the Labor Department. Grocery prices are up 2.9% over the same period, with fruits and vegetables rising 6.1%.
The estimate is now much higher than earlier this year, when the group’s projection was mostly in the 2% to 3% range, Alex Moore, a statistician at the Senior Citizens League, told CBS News. Moore said rising oil prices could push up costs for farming, shipping, and factories.
Shannon Benton, who runs the Senior Citizens League, said a lot of older Americans aren’t seeing any relief yet. “As inflation picks back up, life still does not feel affordable,” Benton said. She pointed to healthcare, housing, utilities, and insurance as rising faster than the rest of the economy. The Senior Citizens League
Retirees could get a higher COLA, but that’s often after prices go up. Over 57% of seniors said in a prior survey they had skipped at least one medical item or service last year because it cost too much, according to .
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget put its COLA estimate at 3.8%, with a possible range from 3% to 4.5% depending on where inflation goes in the next few months, Fox Business reported. Other forecasters land in about the same range, though figures aren’t exactly the same.
There’s a budget problem too. The CRFB warned that a 3.8% COLA, if wages don’t go up as much, would add roughly $300 billion to Social Security’s deficit over ten years and bring the trust fund’s insolvency about three months closer, Fox Business and CBS News reported.
The 2027 cost-of-living adjustment won’t be set for months. Social Security typically reveals its official COLA figure in October. The next big inflation report is expected June 10, when the Labor Department puts out the May CPI numbers.
