New York—May 6, 2026, 13:40 EDT.
- SoFi hovered close to $16 on Wednesday afternoon, little moved since last week’s steep earnings-driven drop.
- Growth isn’t the sticking point for the stock. Investors zeroed in on the flat 2026 outlook, even after a blowout first quarter.
- Wall Street’s view is fractured. Recent analyst notes flag issues with valuation, expenses, and exposure to loan-platform risk.
SoFi Technologies hovered just above flat on Wednesday, with shares sitting at $16.07 in the early afternoon. The market’s focus hasn’t budged—investors are still pressing SoFi about one thing since that record quarter: why stick to the 2026 outlook instead of hiking it?
That’s become significant, as the stock no longer jumps just on rapid growth alone. Investors want to see whether SoFi can actually translate stronger loan demand, more members, and higher fee revenue into earnings momentum—rather than delivering another solid quarter and then dialing back expectations. Last week, Reuters noted the shares dropped after SoFi held its 2026 revenue outlook steady, even as it posted record results for the first quarter.
SoFi is sticking with its outlook: the company sees full-year adjusted net revenue landing near $4.655 billion, adjusted EBITDA close to $1.6 billion, and adjusted EPS around 60 cents. EBITDA, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, is a standard gauge of operating profit.
There was nothing soft about the numbers. SoFi posted GAAP net revenue of $1.10 billion for the first quarter, climbing 43% year-over-year. Net income landed at $166.7 million, with diluted earnings coming in at 12 cents per share. Adjusted net revenue increased 41% to $1.09 billion.
Lending didn’t slow down. SoFi reported record quarterly loan originations at $12.2 billion—breaking down to $8.3 billion in personal loans, $2.6 billion in student loans, and $1.2 billion tied to home loans. The company also added 1.055 million new members, another all-time high, pushing total membership to 14.7 million.
Anthony Noto, SoFi’s CEO, told Reuters the “consumer base remains strong” and highlighted record loan growth last quarter. But William Blair’s Andrew Jeffrey wasn’t impressed. In a note, he pointed out SoFi “did not flow through” first-quarter revenue and EBITDA upside, warning that “the Street will hate these results,” according to Reuters. Reuters
Noto didn’t sugarcoat the market response. “Generally, when you don’t raise guidance, you give people something to worry about,” he told American Banker. The outlet noted SoFi kept its full-year forecast on hold, shifting course after dropping its earlier call for two Federal Reserve rate cuts—now, the company sees none. American Banker
Credit and funding demand top the risk list here. If borrower quality drops, expect charge-offs — those are loans lenders don’t think they’ll get back — to climb, and simply making more loans won’t offset the issue. Analysts remain focused on SoFi’s Loan Platform Business, which underwrites loans for outside firms. American Banker reported it handled $3 billion in personal loans for third parties, a slide from $3.6 billion the previous quarter. Jeffrey summed it up: “private credit woes are hitting home.” American Banker
SoFi isn’t seeing problems crop up, according to CEO Anthony Noto. He told investors demand for the company’s loan volume actually exceeds what’s required by contract, as reported by American Banker.
Analyst opinions are all over the place. According to MarketBeat, seven analysts call SoFi a Buy, 11 say Hold, and three recommend Sell. The consensus sits at Hold, with an average price target of $23.22. Morgan Stanley isn’t budging from its Underweight stance, dropping a $16 target on the stock, Investing.com noted.
Wednesday’s action was mixed among the peers. Affirm slipped 2.1% to $65.38, while LendingClub picked up 0.6%, ending at $17.17. SoFi, for its part, isn’t trading in sync—still drifting in the fog left by its own earnings, rather than mirroring the rest of the fintech group.
Right now, SoFi’s stock comes with a straightforward—if uneasy—narrative. Growth is rapid, the bank posts profits, and new members join steadily. Even with a record quarter on the books, though, investors aren’t biting: management hasn’t raised guidance, and credit jitters persist, so the market’s watching rather than buying in.
