SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) Shares Fall After Earnings Week Despite Revenue Outlook Lift, Profit Forecast Unchanged

SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) Shares Fall After Earnings Week Despite Revenue Outlook Lift, Profit Forecast Unchanged

NEW YORK, August 1, 2026, 14:07 EDT — U.S. markets did not trade.

  • SoFi ended Friday at $16.31, registering a 0.9% decline over the week.
  • Adjusted revenue for the second quarter climbed 40%, while adjusted operating profit was up 44%.
  • The midpoint for 2026 revenue increased by 3.1%, while profit guidance remained the same.

SoFi closed at $16.31 on Friday, marking a 0.9% decline for the week. The company’s increased revenue forecast did not impact its 2026 profit outlook.

Stock chart for NASDAQ:SOFI

The difference is significant. The company raised the adjusted revenue midpoint by $145 million. Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP metric for profit, held steady at about $1.6 billion. Forecasts for adjusted net income and earnings per share were unchanged.

Last weekClosing priceDaily move
Monday, July 27$16.88up 2.55%
Tuesday, July 28$16.74down 0.83%
Wednesday, July 29$15.25fell 8.90%
Thursday, July 30$16.47rose 8.00%
Friday, July 31$16.31down 0.97%
Change from July 24 week$16.31 compared to $16.46declined 0.91%

Regular trading provides the basis for closing prices and changes. Weekly return reflects the difference between Friday closing levels.

The stock declined 8.9% on Wednesday, followed by an 8.0% rebound on Thursday. The recovery was not enough to offset the loss sustained on earnings day. In comparison, the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.6% for the week, with SoFi lagging behind by about 2.5 percentage points.

The quarter delivered strong performance. Adjusted revenue climbed 40% year-on-year to $1.206 billion. Adjusted EBITDA increased 44% to $357.8 million. GAAP net income was up 61%.

Second-quarter resultQ2 2026Q2 2025Change
GAAP net revenue$1,218.7 million$854.9 million+43%
Adjusted net revenue$1,205.6 million$858.2 million+40%
Adjusted EBITDA$357.8 million$249.1 million+44%
GAAP net income$156.6 million$97.3 million+61%
Diluted earnings per share$0.12$0.08+50%

Figures from the company; values are rounded.

Roughly 31% of each extra adjusted revenue dollar contributed to adjusted EBITDA, with SoFi reporting a 31% incremental margin. The company keeping its full-year profit guidance steady is therefore significant.

Some of the market’s caution can be traced to the arithmetic behind the guidance. With the updated revenue midpoint, the implied EBITDA margin drops to 33.3%, compared to 34.4% under the earlier projection. The implied adjusted net-income margin also declines, moving to 17.2% from 17.7%.

2026 guidanceAfter Q1After Q2Change
Adjusted net revenue$4.655 billion$4.75–$4.85 billion+$145 million at midpoint
Adjusted EBITDAAbout $1.60 billionAbout $1.60 billionNo change
Adjusted net incomeAbout $825 millionAbout $825 millionNo change
Adjusted earnings per shareAbout $0.60About $0.60No change
Implied EBITDA margin34.4%33.3% at midpoint-1.0 percentage point
Implied net-income margin17.7%17.2% at midpoint-0.5 percentage point

Margin comparisons are derived from company-provided guidance. Revenue midpoint estimates do not represent individual company projections.

The revenue breakdown introduces further worries. Lending contributed $281.3 million to the year-on-year segment revenue, accounting for about 77% of SoFi’s overall GAAP revenue growth. Technology Platform revenue declined by 23%.

Business segmentQ2 revenueAnnual changeContribution profitMargin, 2026 vs 2025
Lending$724.8 millionup 63%$399.0 million55% compared to 55%
Financial Services$466.3 millionup 29%$212.7 million46% versus 52%
Technology Platform$84.5 milliondown 23%$11.8 million14% against 30%

SoFi uses contribution profit as its non-GAAP metric at the segment level.

Financial Services saw continued growth, though its margin dropped by six percentage points. The margin for Technology Platform was cut by more than half. Lending maintained its margin and was responsible for the majority of the revenue rise.

Customer engagement increased, with 51% of new products opened by existing members, up from 35% the previous year. Product numbers climbed 42%, outpacing the 35% growth in membership. Fee-based revenue totaled $472.3 million, accounting for 39% of overall revenue.

Chief Executive Anthony Noto stated, “Spending remains strong, demand remains strong.” He noted that credit results were in line with or better than the firm’s outlook. Reuters

Opinions varied among analysts regarding the strength of the result. KBW’s Tim Switzer described it as a “lower-quality beat,” pointing to the use of the balance sheet. This worry is reflected in the revenue bridge, where lending continued to dominate. MarketWatch

The spotlight moves to credit conditions next week, away from corporate performance. On Monday, the Federal Reserve releases its bank lending survey. Reports on the labor market and consumer credit are due afterward.

Date and time, EDTScheduled releaseMain SoFi read-through
Monday, August 3, 10:00ISM manufacturing surveyTrends in business demand and interest rate forecasts
Monday, August 3, 14:00Federal Reserve bank-lending surveyCredit demand and lending conditions
Tuesday, August 4, 10:00June job openingsLabor market demand and household stability
Wednesday, August 5, 10:00ISM services surveyServices and consumer sector performance
Friday, August 7, 08:30July employment reportInterest rate outlook and credit risk
Friday, August 7, 15:00June consumer creditExpansion in household borrowing

Friday’s early Reuters consensus estimates 83,000 jobs added with unemployment at 4.3%.

A weaker jobs report may reinforce forecasts for interest rate cuts, but it might also heighten worries about consumer credit. Conversely, stronger figures would shift that outlook. Both scenarios are significant for SoFi, given its focus on lending-driven expansion.

Risks: A rise in unemployment may drive up credit losses and suppress demand for loans. Rapid balance-sheet expansion heightens vulnerability to shifts in funding and capital. Persistent weakness in the Technology Platform could postpone the transition to fee-driven income.

TS2 TECH • EXTENDED COVERAGE

Further analysis

What caused SoFi shares to drop even as it posted record second-quarter results?
Adjusted net revenue increased by 40% to $1.206 billion, and adjusted EPS came in at $0.12, topping consensus estimates by one cent. The company raised its revenue forecast but kept EBITDA at close to $1.6 billion and maintained EPS near $0.60. Revenue from the Technology Platform segment declined by 23% compared to the year before. Shares fell 8.9% on July 29, as investors reacted to concerns over profit conversion and the business mix.
How challenging are SoFi's projections for the second half?
To reach its revenue midpoint, SoFi must generate approximately $2.51 billion in adjusted revenue during the second half. The company also targets about $902 million in adjusted EBITDA, equating to a 36% margin, up from 30% in Q2. For its full-year EPS forecast, SoFi needs to deliver $0.36, following first-half adjusted EPS of $0.24. FactSet projects Q3 EPS at $0.17 and Q4 at $0.19.
Does the $16.31 price make the valuation appealing?
At the July 31 close, SoFi was valued at roughly 27 times its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance. Shares traded close to 20 times FactSet’s 2027 EPS estimate of $0.82. The stock was priced at 2.2 times tangible book value. FactSet’s consensus recommendation is Hold, and the average price target is $19.58, suggesting a 20% potential gain. The median target stands at $18, implying a 10% rise. Price targets range from $12 to $30. SoFi Technologies
Is growth increasingly reliant on lending from balance sheets?
Lending generated $725 million, accounting for 59% of net revenue in the second quarter. SoFi added $7.6 billion in personal loans to its balance sheet. Total assets increased by $7.2 billion, driven by $5.8 billion in loan growth. Deposits totaled $45.5 billion and cost 156 basis points below warehouse funding. Nonetheless, fee-based revenue was $472 million, representing 39% of overall revenue. Lending remains the primary contributor to revenue.
With originations hitting all-time highs, are credit losses being kept in check?
Quarterly originations climbed 69%, reaching a record high of $14.8 billion. The annualized personal-loan charge-off rate reported was 2.62%, a figure that incorporates $90 million in sales of late-stage delinquent loans. Without these sales, SoFi calculated an all-in rate of 3.7%. Ninety-day delinquencies on personal loans stood at 0.40%, dropping by seven basis points. The default assumption in the model increased to 4.77% from 4.57%.
What factors could expand growth outside of lending?
Cross-buy climbed to 51% of new products, up from 35% a year ago. SoFi Plus surpassed 200,000 paying subscribers and reached $24 million in annualized revenue. Technology Platform revenue increased 13% quarter-on-quarter to $84.5 million, though it was 23% lower than last year. Its contribution margin decreased to 14%, down from 30%. Ongoing improvements in both segments would boost fee-based growth. Q4 Capital

Iwona Majkowska is a financial markets journalist at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, artificial intelligence and technology. A graduate of the Warsaw School of Economics, she previously worked in equity research and financial analysis before focusing on market reporting. Her daily coverage helps investors follow major developments across U.S. and global markets. Follow Iwona Majkowska on Google News.

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