SoFi Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOFI) is back in the market’s spotlight on December 19, 2025, after unveiling a major crypto-and-payments milestone: SoFiUSD, a fully reserved, U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin issued by SoFi Bank, N.A. The announcement is fueling fresh debate about whether SoFi is “just” a high-growth fintech bank—or quietly building a next-generation financial infrastructure business that can monetize 24/7 money movement at scale. [1]
The market’s initial reaction has been upbeat. SoFi shares closed $26.29 after the announcement session, with data showing a roughly 4% daily gain and heavy trading volume. [2]
Below is what’s driving SOFI stock today, what analysts and forecasters are projecting, and the key catalysts—and risks—investors are watching heading into 2026.
What happened with SOFI stock on Dec. 19, 2025
SoFi announced on December 18, 2025 that it launched SoFiUSD, positioning itself as a stablecoin infrastructure provider for banks, fintechs, and enterprise partners—not merely a consumer crypto feature. The company says this makes SoFi the first national bank to issue a stablecoin on a public, permissionless blockchain, a detail that matters because it’s exactly where settlement speed and interoperability tend to shine. [3]
Price action followed quickly. Market data for the post-announcement session shows SOFI closing at $26.29 with elevated volume. [4]
Separately, broader 2025 performance is still doing a lot of the storytelling for investors: a Nasdaq.com column discussing 2025’s big fintech winners cited SoFi up about 69% year-to-date (alongside Robinhood’s larger gain), underscoring how sentiment has remained strongly “risk-on” for select consumer-fintech names this year. [5]
What is SoFiUSD, and why the market cares
SoFi describes SoFiUSD as:
- Issued by SoFi Bank, N.A., an OCC-regulated insured depository institution
- Fully reserved 1:1 by cash for “immediate redemption capability,” with reserves held in cash (including at its Federal bank account), which the company argues reduces liquidity and credit risk
- Designed to support near-instant settlement with “fractional-cent pricing,” targeting always-on money movement for partners [6]
The key strategic shift is that SoFi isn’t pitching SoFiUSD as “a new coin to trade.” It’s pitching a payments rail + compliance wrapper that other financial brands can plug into.
Banking Dive reported that SoFi’s stablecoin infrastructure will allow other banks and fintechs to white-label stablecoins, and that those partner-issued coins are expected to be interchangeable with SoFiUSD. It also reported SoFiUSD is launching first on Ethereum, with plans to expand cross-chain over time. [7]
That’s a big deal in plain English: SoFi is trying to be the “boring but essential” plumbing—where the money moves—rather than the casino floor.
Why SoFi is pushing stablecoins now: regulation finally caught up
Stablecoins have lived for years in a weird limbo: widely used in crypto markets, but only cautiously touched by regulated banks.
That limbo changed in 2025.
- July 18, 2025: Reuters reported that President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act, establishing a U.S. regulatory regime for stablecoins and requiring them to be backed by liquid assets with reserve disclosures. [8]
- December 16, 2025: The FDIC announced its board approved a notice of proposed rulemaking to implement application procedures under the GENIUS Act for FDIC-supervised institutions seeking to issue payment stablecoins through a subsidiary (with a public comment period after Federal Register publication). [9]
This is the “grown-up paperwork” phase of stablecoins. And when regulation becomes legible, banks tend to get curious—fast.
How SoFi is stitching crypto into its “one-stop” financial ecosystem
SoFi’s stablecoin move isn’t happening in isolation. It’s the continuation of a 2025 crypto rebuild.
On November 11, 2025, SoFi announced the launch of SoFi Crypto, calling itself the first and only nationally chartered bank to let consumers bank, borrow, invest—and buy/sell/hold crypto—inside one app. [10]
Reuters similarly covered SoFi’s crypto re-entry, framing it as a notable moment for bank-chartered firms entering consumer crypto trading under a shifting U.S. policy environment. [11]
In the SoFiUSD press release distributed via Nasdaq, the company also described SoFiUSD as something it expects to use in the settlement of its crypto trading business and potentially in broader payment contexts tied to SoFi’s platform strategy. [12]
Read that again with a builder’s mindset: SoFi is positioning itself to earn money whether customers are paying, transferring, trading, or embedding SoFi infrastructure into another fintech’s product.
The fundamental backdrop: SoFi’s growth and raised guidance
This is the part that keeps long-only investors interested: SoFi isn’t pitching future tech while its core business melts. It’s posting real growth and profit.
In its Q3 2025 earnings release, SoFi reported:
- GAAP net revenue:$961.6 million (up 38% year-over-year)
- GAAP net income:$139.4 million
- Diluted EPS:$0.11
- Members:12.6 million (up 35% year-over-year) [13]
Even more important for “forecast” conversations: SoFi raised its full-year 2025 outlook. In the same Q3 release, the company said it expects for full-year 2025 approximately:
- Adjusted net revenue:~$3.54 billion
- Adjusted EBITDA:~$1.035 billion
- Adjusted net income:~$455 million
- Adjusted EPS:~$0.37
- At least 3.5 million new members added in 2025 [14]
So the bullish thesis many traders are leaning into right now is simple: SoFi is scaling its profitable core, and layering on infrastructure products (crypto trading + stablecoin rails) that could expand margins and fee-based revenue over time.
SOFI stock forecasts today: price targets cluster in the high-$20s, but the range is wide
Forecasting SOFI is a sport, not a science—this stock has a history of violently disagreeing with consensus models. But the latest published aggregations give a useful snapshot of where expectations sit today.
- MarketBeat shows a consensus price target of $25.69, with targets ranging from $17 (low) to $38 (high). [15]
- ValueInvesting.io shows an average 12‑month forecast of $27.48, a range of $12.12 to $39.90, and a consensus “HOLD” recommendation based on a set of tracked analysts. [16]
Translation: the “middle” view is basically mid-to-high $20s, but analysts are nowhere near aligned on what SoFi should be worth if crypto infrastructure becomes meaningful (or if it fizzles).
Fresh market commentary and independent analysis (Dec. 19, 2025)
Not all “analysis” comes from sell-side banks. A Seeking Alpha article published today described a DCF-style valuation pointing to a price target around $27.10 (low single-digit upside), while flagging macro/competition/crypto integration risks. [17]
Another Seeking Alpha piece published today argued that dilution headlines may miss balance-sheet improvement, citing a higher 12‑month target near $36.87 (material upside) based on forward estimates and premium valuation assumptions. [18]
Treat these as opinions, not oracles—but they show how polarized expectations are when a company sits at the intersection of banking, lending, and crypto rails.
The dilution and capital question hasn’t gone away
While SoFi’s growth narrative is strong, investors have also been wrestling with capital strategy.
Earlier this month, MarketWatch reported that SoFi announced a $1.5 billion stock offering, stoking dilution concerns even as management framed proceeds as supporting capital position and growth opportunities. [19]
Investopedia’s coverage similarly emphasized that the share sale surprised some watchers and came with the stock near highs, while noting Street sentiment on ratings was broadly neutral and pointing to a consensus price target around the mid-$20s. [20]
This matters for today’s stablecoin excitement because stablecoin infrastructure is, at heart, a trust business. Strong capital and regulatory posture can be an advantage—yet capital raises can pressure the stock in the short run.
Competitive context: stablecoins are turning mainstream finance-curious
SoFi is not alone. Stablecoin rails are increasingly being explored by incumbents.
Barron’s recently reported that Visa expanded stablecoin settlement options for U.S. banks using USDC, part of a broader trend toward always-on settlement. [21]
Axios reported that the OCC conditionally approved several crypto firms (including major stablecoin players) for national trust bank charters, another sign that the regulatory architecture around stablecoins and crypto finance is being built out rather than torn down. [22]
In that environment, SoFi’s pitch is clear: it wants to be the regulated, bank-chartered bridge between traditional banking workflows and public-chain settlement.
Key risks investors are weighing right now
SoFi’s stablecoin narrative is exciting—but the universe charges a fee for excitement. The big risks include:
Regulatory and compliance complexity
Even with the GENIUS Act and the FDIC’s proposed pathway, stablecoin issuance and integration will remain heavily supervised and politically sensitive. [23]
Execution risk and partner adoption
SoFiUSD becomes meaningful only if partners adopt the infrastructure and transaction volumes scale. Otherwise it’s a flashy product with limited financial impact.
Crypto market volatility (and reputational risk)
A bank-backed stablecoin may be safer by design, but the broader crypto ecosystem still swings between innovation and scandal at uncomfortable speed.
Valuation and “high beta” behavior
Even many bullish forecasts imply that SOFI’s current valuation already prices in a lot of success, which can amplify drawdowns on any miss or macro shock. [24]
Dilution overhang
Recent capital-raise headlines have reminded investors that fast-growing fintech banks may still tap markets opportunistically. [25]
What to watch next for SOFI stock
The next few milestones that could move SOFI meaningfully:
- SoFiUSD rollout timing for “all SoFi members,” which the company says is coming soon [26]
- Enterprise/partner announcements (banks, fintechs, networks) using SoFi’s stablecoin infrastructure, including white-label adoption [27]
- Regulatory developments as the FDIC’s proposed rule moves through comments and toward finalization [28]
- Next earnings catalyst: multiple tracking calendars currently point to late January 2026 expectations for Q4 2025 results (with some estimates centered on Jan. 26, 2026) [29]
If SoFi can show early evidence that stablecoins are not just a product—but a revenue-generating infrastructure layer—today’s rally could start looking less like a headline pop and more like a re-rating.
References
1. investors.sofi.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. investors.sofi.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. www.nasdaq.com, 6. investors.sofi.com, 7. www.bankingdive.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.fdic.gov, 10. investors.sofi.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.nasdaq.com, 13. investors.sofi.com, 14. investors.sofi.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. valueinvesting.io, 17. seekingalpha.com, 18. seekingalpha.com, 19. www.marketwatch.com, 20. www.investopedia.com, 21. www.barrons.com, 22. www.axios.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. seekingalpha.com, 25. www.marketwatch.com, 26. investors.sofi.com, 27. www.bankingdive.com, 28. www.fdic.gov, 29. www.zacks.com
