SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares drop as 86% of capex committed to AI expansion

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares drop as 86% of capex committed to AI expansion

NEW YORK, August 5, 2026, 04:19 EDT

  • SpaceX shares dropped up to 9.8% to $113.01 during premarket hours.
  • Revenue for the quarter increased by 92%, and capital expenditures totaled $18.37 billion.
  • AI accounted for $15.83 billion, representing 86% of total quarterly capital expenditure.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. dropped by up to 9.8% in early trading on Wednesday. Premarket trade on Nasdaq was brisk, though regular market hours had not yet begun.

Stock chart for NASDAQ:SPCX

Revenue increased significantly. AI accounted for 33% of sales and represented 86% of capital expenditures. Market reports highlighted expectations for future spending.

Space and Connectivity jointly spent $2.54 billion. Their combined adjusted EBITDA reached $2.39 billion, offsetting 94% of those costs. AI incurred a significantly larger capital burden.

Second-quarter financial performance, $ billions

MetricQ2 2026Q1 2026Q2 2025Quarter-on-quarterYear-on-year
Revenue$7.81$4.69$4.07up 66.5%up 91.9%
Operating loss($0.14)($1.94)($0.97)loss reduced 92.6%loss narrowed 85.3%
Adjusted EBITDA$3.54$1.13$1.21rose 213.9%increased 191.4%
Capital expenditure$18.37$10.11$2.83up 81.7%up 550.2%

Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP metric defined by the company. Percentages derive from reported data.

SpaceX disclosed that its revenue almost doubled in its initial public quarter, while it significantly narrowed its operating loss. Capital expenditures surged even more rapidly, increasing by 550% compared with the previous year.

Connectivity continued to drive profits, contributing 73% of the group’s adjusted EBITDA while making up 55% of total revenue.

Capital requirements by business segment, Q2 2026

Business groupingRevenueAdjusted EBITDACapexCapex/revenueCapex/adjusted EBITDAShare of group capex
Space and Connectivity$5.25B$2.39B$2.54B48%1.1 times13.8%
AI$2.56B$1.15B$15.83B618%13.8 times86.2%
Total$7.81B$3.54B$18.37B235%5.2 times100%

Figures are based on segment data provided by the company. Adjusted EBITDA refers to a non-GAAP metric.

Starlink’s subscriber base reached 12 million, doubling in size. Average monthly revenue per user declined by 22% to $66, reflecting the rollout of lower-priced international plans.

Revenue from enterprise and government sectors increased by 108%, compared with a 44% rise in consumer revenue. This shift contributed to a 79% gain in Connectivity operating income, bringing it to $1.66 billion.

Connectivity performance comparison

MetricQ2 2026Q2 2025Change
Starlink subscribers12.0M6.0M+100%
Monthly ARPU$66$85-22.4%
Consumer revenue$2.49B$1.72B+44.4%
Enterprise and government revenue$1.81B$0.87B+108.3%
Operating income$1.66B$0.92B+79.4%

Company data is used to determine percentages.

AI revenue totaled $2.56 billion, with infrastructure and solutions contributing $2.19 billion. The segment recorded adjusted EBITDA of $1.15 billion but reported a GAAP loss of $1.26 billion.

AI capital expenditures amounted to 6.2 times revenue and 13.8 times adjusted EBITDA. Executives anticipate overall capex will remain at around existing levels for another two quarters. Musk said, “We’re building AI compute capacity at scale faster than anyone else.”

Brian Mulberry of Zacks Investment Management described the early monetization as a “tremendous upside surprise.” Reuters

At the end of June, SpaceX reported cash and marketable securities totaling $100 billion. Operations for the first half provided $3.47 billion. Investing activities accounted for a use of $34.49 billion, while financing contributed $100.29 billion.

SpaceX could conduct its next Starship test as soon as the end of the month, subject to regulatory clearance. The company aims to launch V3 Starlink satellites and try catching the upper stage with a tower. Musk stated that these satellites are expected to deliver tenfold the broadband capacity of the existing ones.

The supply of shares could become a factor in the near term. As of Thursday, as many as 912 million insider shares will be available for sale, representing 141% of the existing 646 million shares in public float. By mid-2027, a further 12.9 billion shares are expected to become unlocked.

Equity valuation at various share price points

Price referenceShare priceApproximate equity valueAnnualized Q2 revenue multiple
Premarket, August 5$113.01$1.49T47.7 times
Close on August 4$125.33$1.65T52.9 times
IPO offer price$135.00$1.78T56.9 times
Intraday high in June$225.64$2.97T95.2 times

Initial estimates are based on 13.18 billion total shares, including both Class A and Class B. Annualized revenue is calculated as four times the disclosed Q2 revenue.

Risks: Continued investment in AI may push back free-cash-flow prospects. Delays to Starship, decreased Starlink ARPU, regulatory challenges and lockup share sales may increase volatility.

Following the selloff, SpaceX remained valued at close to 48 times its annualized revenue for the second quarter. Expectations for rapid capital returns are still reflected in this valuation.

TS2 TECH • EXTENDED COVERAGE

Further analysis

Has the Q2 earnings outperformance strengthened SpaceX’s valuation outlook?
Revenue surpassed consensus by 14.6% and came in at $7.81 billion. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $3.54 billion, and net loss stood at $541 million. The share price was $125.33 in August 5 premarket trading, giving a market capitalization of about $1.65 trillion—equivalent to nearly 53 times annualized Q2 revenue. Shares held 7% below the $135 IPO level. Google
Does Starlink remain the main driver of profits?
Yes. Connectivity generated $4.29 billion in revenue and $1.66 billion in operating income. Revenue climbed 66%. Operating income rose 79%. Subscribers doubled to 12.0 million, while monthly ARPU declined 22.6% to $66. Enterprise and government revenue surged 108%, counterbalancing consumer pricing pressures. SEC
Is the pace of AI expansion sufficient to offset capital costs and the impact of shareholder dilution?
AI revenue climbed 247% to $2.56 billion. Adjusted EBITDA entered positive territory at $1.15 billion. However, the segment posted an operating loss of $1.26 billion. AI capital expenditures totaled $15.83 billion, accounting for 86% of total company capex. The planned $60 billion Cursor acquisition will be financed through newly issued SpaceX shares. The exact dilution will depend on the share price at closing. SEC
What factors could help management achieve its $100 billion revenue run-rate goal?
To meet targets, December revenue needs to total approximately $8.33 billion—3.2 times the monthly average recorded in Q2. SpaceX reported $14.1 billion in AI sales under contract and holds a $47.5 billion backlog. Starship Flight 13 launched 20 operational V3 satellites. Accelerating satellite deployment could increase Starlink capacity. Full and rapid Starship reusability has yet to be demonstrated. Reuters
Is the stock likely to experience pressure with the August 6 lockup expiry?
As many as 911.5 million shares held by insiders and employees could soon be available for sale. The initial wave has the potential to more than double the current public float. However, only a portion of these eligible shares are likely to be sold. Despite this, the increased supply could heavily influence short-term price trends. The impact will also depend on who is selling. Reuters
How does Wall Street view SpaceX stock prospects?
Market consensus is still positive, although estimates vary widely. According to Google Finance, there are 23 buy, seven hold, and two sell ratings. The mean price target stands at $230.17, suggesting roughly 84% potential upside. Price forecasts range from $75 to $800, highlighting an unusually broad level of valuation uncertainty. Google

Michał Rogucki is a senior markets reporter at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, technology and macroeconomic developments. A graduate of Humboldt University of Berlin, he previously worked in investment research and market analysis before transitioning to financial journalism. He covers the trends and events that matter most to investors worldwide.

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