NEW YORK, July 17, 2026, 18:08 EDT —
- Shares closed at $18.16, up 1.0% Friday but down 17.3% for the week.
- A preliminary tally puts 77% of disclosed open capacity outside New York.
- The Abernathy sale agreement implies a $250 million payment deadline on July 20.
TeraWulf Inc. NASDAQ:WULF closed Friday at $18.16, up 1.0%. The shares still lost 17.3% over the week. Regular U.S. trading had ended before publication.
The break followed New York’s July 14 order pausing incomplete state permits for large data centers. It moved the valuation debate from signed leases toward undeveloped power.
The investor question is narrower. A preliminary tally puts 482 MW of TeraWulf’s 2,082 MW open capacity in New York. That is 23%. The other 1,600 MW sits in Kentucky and Maryland.
Company disclosures show the following critical IT capacity:
| Site | State | Status | Contracted MW | Open MW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Mariner | New York | Operating | 438 | 162 |
| Justified Data | Kentucky | Development | 401 | 0 |
| Muskie Data | Kentucky | Planning and permitting | 0 | 800 |
| Lake Hawkeye | New York | Permitting | 0 | 320 |
| Chesapeake Data | Maryland | Permitting | 0 | 800 |
| Total | 839 | 2,082 |
The figures are company disclosures, not independently verified construction forecasts.
Lake Hawkeye carries the clearest permit risk. The 320 MW New York project remains in permitting and has no contracted capacity. Lake Mariner already operates. It has 438 MW contracted and 162 MW still open.
Executive Order 62 covers centers able to use at least 50 MW. It holds applications not deemed complete by July 14. Local permits are excluded. No project-specific state determination for TeraWulf was verified.
Rosenblatt analyst Chris Brendler retained a Buy rating and $30 target Wednesday. He called the development “more headline risk than structural.” His view was analyst judgment, not a regulator’s ruling. Blockspace Media
That distinction matters, but it does not remove optionality risk. New standards could add grid charges, capital needs or longer timelines. The order directs state officials to consider those tools.
The largest new lease sits outside New York. Anthropic signed for 401 MW at Justified Data in Kentucky. TeraWulf expects about $19 billion over 20 years. Delivery runs from late 2027 through early 2028.
Chief Executive Paul Prager said the lease “validates our strategy and establishes a long-duration revenue stream.” Rent starts only after each phase is delivered.
The pivot is already visible in revenue. First-quarter HPC lease revenue was $21 million. Bitcoin mining brought in $13 million. HPC supplied 62% of total revenue.
Price action remained rough. Shares fell 7.1% Tuesday and 7.2% Thursday. Friday’s gain recovered little of the weekly loss.
The week ahead brings a cash test. The Abernathy agreement requires a $250 million first installment within 14 days of July 6. That implies a July 20 deadline. Total consideration is about $530 million.
Risks remain. The New York order could delay uncontracted expansion. The Anthropic figure is gross, long-dated contract revenue, not profit. Construction, funding and credit support still shape eventual cash returns.
Next week, investors will watch the Abernathy payment and state permit guidance. Until then, execution on funded, permitted megawatts will carry more weight.
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