NEW YORK, March 27, 2026, 12:14 PM EDT
Tesla shares slipped roughly 1.4% by midday Friday following the release of an updated analyst consensus showing weaker vehicle deliveries projected for this year. The stock traded at $366.75, having dipped to $361.67 earlier in the session.
Tesla’s latest analyst consensus shows signs that the bounce in its car business is losing steam. The company now forecasts 1.689 million car deliveries for 2026, trimmed from January’s 1.723 million figure. As car sales remain the core of today’s revenue, investors are looking even more to potential upside in AI, robotaxis, and humanoid robots.
The stock slipped in a sluggish market. The Nasdaq dropped 1.33% Friday, Reuters said, with worries over Middle East conflict and rising oil prices dragging tech stocks lower. “Words alone aren’t cutting it right now,” Hargreaves Lansdown’s Matt Britzman noted. Reuters
On Thursday, Tesla reported first-quarter deliveries at 365,645 vehicles, falling short of the 418,227 it managed in the previous quarter. Analysts pointed to energy storage deployments coming in at 14.4 gigawatt-hours for the first quarter—just edging past the prior record of 14.2 GWh.
Earlier this month, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas flagged rising costs tied to autonomy, robotics, and energy as a drag on the stock. Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein put it more bluntly: “If I look at two of the three largest markets, I’m seeing a decline,” he told Reuters. Tesla investor Gene Munster struck a different note—he figures “zero growth is a win” as long as sales don’t slip further. Reuters
Europe hasn’t given Tesla much breathing space. February registrations climbed 11.8%, breaking a year-plus decline, but BYD’s sales shot up even faster—more than doubling and landing right on Tesla’s market share. Volkswagen and Stellantis posted gains as well.
Tesla’s backdrop remains tough to overlook. The company handed over 1.64 million vehicles in 2025, slipping from 1.79 million the year before. That marks a second consecutive annual drop, and Tesla ceded the global EV sales crown to BYD.
Tesla has been working to redirect investor attention. Back in January, the company announced a $2 billion investment in Elon Musk’s xAI, and stuck to its plans for Cybercab production this year, all while Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja flagged that spending on factories and equipment is set to push past $20 billion. For Thomas Monteiro at Investing.com, the main thing to watch now isn’t deliveries.
Still, Tesla makes clear it doesn’t back the analyst estimates it posts; the consensus figure is just a reference point, not company guidance. A shortfall in first-quarter deliveries—even versus that muted expectation—would leave investors sizing up a car-centric operation against a pricier wager on software and robotics that hasn’t paid off in cash flows yet.
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