NEW YORK, March 31, 2026, 17:59 (EDT)
Tesla jumped roughly 4.6% in late U.S. trading Tuesday, riding a wider Wall Street bounce. But attention quickly shifted to Tesla’s upcoming quarterly delivery numbers—a critical gauge of demand for the EV giant.
The delivery number carries more weight here than any bounce in the stock. Cars remain Tesla’s core business, even as Elon Musk steers the company further into AI, robotaxis, and humanoid bots. Last week, Tesla’s own investor-relations page showed Wall Street looking for 365,645 deliveries—higher than the 336,681 posted a year ago, when Model Y retooling paused output for weeks, but still trailing Q4’s 418,227.
Even with those plans, Tesla faces a tough road after 2025. Deliveries last year dropped to 1.64 million, handing the all-electric crown to China’s BYD. This month, Reuters found analysts slashing their 2026 delivery-growth estimate to just 3.8%, down from 8.2% back in January. Some on Wall Street now see Tesla posting a third consecutive annual decline. All this comes as the company is set to pour over $20 billion into Cybercab, Optimus, batteries, and other bets this year.
Markets got a jolt Tuesday, with the S&P 500 notching a 2.91% gain and the Nasdaq surging 3.83%—investors betting on some relief if the Iran conflict cools. Despite the upswing, Tesla wrapped up the quarter down over 20%, Reuters reported.
Europe isn’t letting up on Tesla. February car registrations were up 11.8% year-on-year—the first annual uptick since December 2024—but BYD shot past that, more than doubling its registrations and pulling nearly even with Tesla’s 1.8% share. Volkswagen and Stellantis recorded higher numbers, too.
“I’m seeing a decline,” Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein told Reuters, pointing to Tesla’s major markets and projecting deliveries will fall again this year. For Sam Fiorani at AutoForecast Solutions, tweaks to the Model 3 and Model Y haven’t been bold enough to pull buyers from more affordable, newly released competitors. Reuters
Tesla keeps steering the conversation away from its vehicle delivery numbers. Back in January, the company said Cybercab production remained on schedule for this year and revealed a $2 billion cash injection into Musk’s xAI. Revenue from energy generation and storage hit a record $3.84 billion for the fourth quarter, up 25.5%. “Tesla is entering a transition phase,” Thomas Monteiro from Investing.com told Reuters, noting that rollout figures are now taking precedence over traditional delivery stats. Reuters
If deliveries fall short—or if Tesla rolls out more discounts—the spotlight could snap right back to the company’s cash burn. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas figures Tesla might burn through over $8 billion in 2026, Reuters noted. That’s despite Tesla finishing 2025 holding $44.06 billion in cash, cash equivalents and investments.
Robotaxi execution is still on shaky ground. Back in February, Reuters reported that Tesla had logged zero self-driving test miles in California for 2025 and hadn’t even filed for the permits required to operate a commercial driverless ride-hailing service there. By contrast, Waymo, Alphabet’s autonomous vehicle arm, drove over 13 million test miles before it secured approval to start charging passengers for fully driverless trips.
Investors seem content to sit tight for the moment—as long as Tesla’s auto sales don’t worsen. Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster put it plainly to Reuters: “Zero growth would be a ‘win’ for Tesla.” If deliveries start dropping more quickly, though, Munster cautioned, “that’s a problem.” Reuters
