NEW YORK, December 30, 2025, 09:35 ET — Regular session
- Tesla shares edged higher early Tuesday after fresh forecasts pointed to a year-end delivery decline.
- Investors are bracing for Tesla’s quarterly production-and-deliveries update due Friday.
- Battery-supply headlines added to scrutiny of EV demand and Tesla’s in-house 4680 cell ramp.
Tesla shares were up about 0.3% at $461 shortly after the opening bell on Tuesday, as investors digested forecasts calling for a fourth-quarter delivery decline ahead of Tesla’s report due Friday. TSLA ended Monday at $459.64 and has traded below last week’s 52-week high of $498.83. StockAnalysis+1
The delivery update matters because it is one of the cleanest, near-term reads on demand after U.S. federal EV tax credits ended in September, a shift that has forced automakers to lean more heavily on pricing and incentives.
It also comes at a sensitive moment for Tesla’s narrative. Much of the bullish case centers on robotaxis and self-driving software, but vehicle sales still account for the bulk of current revenue, leaving the stock exposed to any disappointment in the core auto business.
Analysts polled by Visible Alpha expect Tesla to deliver 432,810 vehicles in the December quarter, down about 13% from a year earlier, while a separate consensus compiled by Tesla and released Monday put deliveries at 422,850, a 15% drop. Visible Alpha’s poll pegs 2025 deliveries at about 1.65 million vehicles, down 7.8% from 2024 and marking a second straight annual decline.
Tesla has tried to defend volume with lower-priced trims. It launched stripped-down “Standard” versions of the Model 3 and Model Y in October, pricing them about $5,000 below the prior base models, while facing intensifying competition in key markets, including new lower-cost EVs expected from Chevrolet and Ford over the next two years.
Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu said in a note that weaker sales in North America and Europe are expected to drive much of the decline, even as Tesla tries to protect share overseas where Chinese-made EVs have been gaining ground.
Separately, South Korea’s L&F said the value of its 2023 battery-material supply deal with Tesla has fallen to $7,386 from a previously projected $2.9 billion, underscoring uncertainty around battery demand and Tesla’s in-house 4680 cell push, analysts said. “There (is) anxiety about the battery sector overall,” said Cho Hyun-ryul, a senior analyst at Samsung Securities. Reuters
Sources and analysts told Reuters that L&F had planned to supply key materials for Tesla’s 4680 cells. Tesla uses 4680 batteries in its Cybertruck, and CEO Elon Musk has said scaling a “dry electrode” process for the cells remains a challenge.
Traders are also watching the broader tape. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting are due later Tuesday, and trading volumes are expected to stay thin in the holiday-shortened week, with U.S. markets closed Thursday for New Year’s Day. Reuters
That matters for TSLA because high-growth stocks tend to swing with expectations for interest rates. Any shift in rate-cut bets can quickly change the market’s appetite for richly valued names.
The next catalyst is Tesla’s production-and-deliveries release on Friday. Investors will focus on whether demand for the cheaper “Standard” trims is showing up in the mix, and whether the company’s global delivery pace is stabilizing after the tax-credit cliff.
If deliveries land near the lower end of estimates, investors will likely press for clearer answers on pricing, incentives, and regional demand in 2026. A surprise beat, by contrast, would ease near-term worries about the EV slowdown—at least until Tesla’s late-January earnings update brings margins back into view.
