Tesla, Inc. stock is back in the spotlight on Wednesday, December 17, 2025, after a powerful rally pushed shares to a fresh record close near $490 on Tuesday, the first such milestone in roughly a year. [1] Investors have been bidding up TSLA on the belief that Tesla’s autonomy strategy is finally moving from promises to visible progress—especially after Elon Musk confirmed driverless robotaxi testing in Austin, Texas. [2]
But just as the “robotaxi trade” has accelerated, the company is also confronting a new regulatory headline in its most important U.S. market: California. A state administrative case around Tesla’s “Autopilot” and “Full Self-Driving” marketing has resulted in a DMV decision that could lead to a temporary suspension of Tesla’s ability to sell vehicles in the state if the company does not address the issue within the required window. [3]
Below is a detailed, investor-focused breakdown of the latest Tesla stock news, forecasts, and analyst analysis shaping TSLA on 17.12.2025.
Tesla stock today: why TSLA is moving
Tesla shares surged to a record close around $489.88 on Tuesday, December 16, 2025—its first record close since last December. [4] The rally has been tightly linked to autonomy developments, with multiple outlets noting that optimism around Tesla’s robotaxi ambitions has re-energized a stock that had a volatile 2025. [5]
The near-term narrative is straightforward:
- Bullish catalyst: Tesla confirmed it is testing robotaxis “with no occupants” in Austin—an escalation from earlier operations that involved in-vehicle safety monitors. [6]
- Bearish counterweight: California regulators have ruled Tesla’s use of “Autopilot” and related terminology in marketing is misleading under state law, triggering a compliance clock that could culminate in penalties affecting sales in the state. [7]
- Bigger picture: Even as the stock trades like an “AI/autonomy platform,” Reuters and other observers continue to emphasize that Tesla’s current revenue and profits still come primarily from selling vehicles. [8]
Robotaxi momentum: Tesla’s Austin testing goes “driverless”
The most important positive catalyst for Tesla stock this week is the visible step-change in the company’s Austin robotaxi program.
What Tesla and Musk said
Reuters reported that Tesla shares jumped after Musk said the company was testing robotaxis without safety monitors in the front passenger seat, and that testing was underway with “no occupants in the car.” [9] Reuters also framed Tesla’s valuation as heavily tied to investor optimism around self-driving technology and humanoid robotics, even though EV sales remain the core business. [10]
What TechCrunch reported about the program’s current scale and scrutiny
TechCrunch added important detail about the operational reality in Austin: Tesla is now letting robotaxis drive around the city with no safety monitor onboard, which moves the effort closer to a fully commercial service—but also increases scrutiny. [11] The report describes the test fleet as relatively small (often estimated at roughly a few dozen vehicles), and notes prior incidents and limited public information due to redactions in reporting. [12]
The competitive benchmark: Waymo’s head start
A key point for investors: Reuters highlighted that Alphabet’s Waymo leads U.S. robotaxi commercialization, with more than 2,500 commercial robotaxis across major cities as of November, and reporting around 450,000 paid rides per week. [13]
In other words, Tesla’s autonomy story has momentum—but it is still competing against a mature, scaled rival in the same category.
California DMV decision: a real-world regulatory test for Tesla’s autonomy narrative
Just as robotaxi enthusiasm has lifted the stock, California’s DMV has delivered a high-stakes reminder that how Tesla describes autonomy can be as important as the technology itself.
What California’s DMV decided
In a December 16, 2025 news release, the California DMV said it adopted an administrative law judge’s findings that Tesla’s use of “autopilot” and “Full Self-Driving Capability” in marketing for its ADAS features was misleading and violated state law. [14] The DMV also stated Tesla had already discontinued “Full Self-Driving Capability” language and now uses “Full Self-Driving (Supervised).” [15]
Crucially for TSLA investors, the DMV decision created a compliance pathway: Tesla has 60 days to take action regarding its use of the term “autopilot,” and if it fails to address the issue, it may face a 30-day suspension of its dealer license. [16]
Reuters: sales suspension order “on hold,” but with deadlines
Reuters reported that California’s regulator deferred enforcement and put the order “on hold,” with the DMV staying the sales-related suspension for a period (Reuters reported 90 days) and staying the manufacturing license suspension indefinitely, while giving Tesla time to remedy the issue. [17] Reuters also reported Tesla may seek court review by February 14, and that the DMV’s remedy framework could require Tesla to stop using “Autopilot” or substantiate that its vehicles can operate without active human monitoring. [18]
Why this matters for TSLA stock
California is widely viewed as Tesla’s biggest U.S. market, and any restriction on sales—temporary or otherwise—would be a headline risk the market cannot ignore. [19] Even if investors believe Tesla can comply, the episode adds uncertainty at the same time the stock is pricing in an autonomy-driven upside case.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: Tesla’s “wide dispersion” is the story
If there’s a single word that captures Tesla’s Wall Street outlook right now, it’s dispersion: analysts are all looking at the same company, but arriving at radically different conclusions about what TSLA is worth.
Bull case: Mizuho lifts target to $530 on FSD progress
Investopedia reported that Mizuho raised its price target to $530 (from $475), citing research that suggests Tesla’s self-driving performance continues to improve and could enable faster robotaxi expansion and removal of safety monitors. [20] MarketBeat similarly reported a $530 target with an “outperform” rating and emphasized that the analyst consensus remains mixed, with an average target around $400. [21]
Super-bull case: Wedbush sees $600 target—and a path to $800 in 12–18 months
Investing.com summarized Wedbush analyst Dan Ives’ thesis: autonomy and robotics could “define Tesla’s future,” with Wedbush reiterating an Outperform rating and a $600 price target, and outlining a bull-case scenario that could drive Tesla stock toward $800 over the next 12–18 months if the autonomy/robotics roadmap accelerates. [22]
That same analysis argues robotaxis could expand to more than 30 U.S. cities in 2026 and frames Tesla’s AI/autonomy opportunity as potentially worth at least $1 trillion in value. [23]
Cautious case: Morgan Stanley downgrades TSLA to Equal Weight, $425 target
On the other side of the spectrum, Investing.com reported that Morgan Stanley downgraded Tesla to Equal Weight (from Overweight) while raising its price target to $425, essentially arguing that optimism around AI-driven businesses is increasingly priced in and the stock is closer to fair value. [24]
Notably, Morgan Stanley’s refreshed framework still assigns meaningful value to Tesla’s future businesses—reportedly including $60 per share for the Optimus humanoid program—and assumes 1.6 million vehicle deliveries in 2026, while also warning about a potentially “choppy” trading environment and downside risks to Street estimates. [25]
The “middle”: consensus targets cluster well below the current stock price
Investopedia cited Visible Alpha tracking that showed only about half of covered analysts rating Tesla a “buy,” with an average target around $400—implying meaningful downside from the latest record close. [26] MarketBeat reported a similar average target near $400.86 and highlighted how widely targets range across firms. [27]
For Google News readers, that’s the key takeaway: Tesla stock is not short on bullish narratives—but Wall Street, as a group, is far from unanimously convinced at these levels.
Valuation debate: Tesla is priced like an AI platform, not a carmaker
The intensity of the valuation debate is unusually high even by Tesla standards.
- Investing.com reported Tesla trading at a very high earnings multiple (citing a P/E above 300) alongside a market value around $1.6 trillion during this record-high move. [28]
- Trefis published a bearish scenario analysis arguing the stock’s valuation looks “very high” and that a downside target around $330 “may not be out of reach,” based on its multi-factor view. [29]
The market’s current logic is that robotaxis, autonomy software, network services, and humanoid robotics can transform Tesla’s earnings power. The counterargument is that these businesses are either early-stage, not yet scaled, or dependent on regulatory approvals that could take longer than the market hopes.
Fundamentals check: Tesla’s EV demand picture remains mixed globally
Even as Tesla stock hits records on robotaxi headlines, Tesla’s core vehicle business is facing real demand and competition pressures in multiple regions.
Europe: price strategy is back—Model 3 gets a cheaper variant
Reuters reported Tesla launched a lower-priced Model 3 variant in Europe in early December, aiming to boost sales amid competition and slowing demand. The new Model 3 Standard drops some premium features but targets a range above 300 miles (480 km), with deliveries expected in the first quarter of 2026. [30]
UK: registrations fell 19% in November
Reuters reported Tesla’s UK registrations (a proxy for sales) fell 19% in November, reflecting intensified competition and a crowded EV market with many models available. [31]
China: a brighter spot in November—China-made EV sales rose 9.9% YoY
Reuters reported Tesla’s China-made EV sales rose 9.9% year-on-year in November, and were up 41% month-on-month versus October, according to CPCA data. [32] That suggests Tesla can still create demand bursts in China, even amid intense competition.
The broader delivery outlook: 2025 is still expected to decline
In late November, Reuters reported that Visible Alpha data suggested Tesla’s global vehicle deliveries were expected to decline 7% in 2025, after a 1% drop in 2024, underscoring that the car business has been under pressure even as the stock’s narrative shifts toward AI. [33]
Battery and manufacturing investments: Tesla doubles down on Europe (selectively)
Tesla is also continuing to invest in manufacturing and battery capabilities that matter for long-term scale.
Reuters reported Tesla is creating conditions to produce up to 8 GWh of battery cells per year at its Grünheide gigafactory in Germany starting in 2027, with total investment in the local cell facility rising to nearly €1 billion (about $1.2 billion). [34] Tesla also noted that producing cells economically in Europe remains challenging versus China and the U.S., a reminder that cost competitiveness is still a central theme. [35]
Tesla stock forecast: what to watch next (the next 30–90 days)
For investors and readers tracking Tesla stock news closely, the next catalysts are unusually clear—and unusually high stakes.
1) The California DMV compliance window and potential legal path
The DMV decision creates an explicit timeline. The DMV’s press release describes a 60-day window tied to Tesla’s use of “autopilot,” and Reuters reported Tesla may pursue court review by February 14. [36] Any indication of Tesla’s chosen path—renaming, revised marketing disclosures, or legal escalation—could move the stock.
2) Robotaxi scaling: more cars, more cities, more scrutiny
Tesla’s driverless testing is a major sentiment driver. But scaling from a test fleet to a revenue-generating network is where the market tends to reprice risk—especially around safety, reporting transparency, and local regulatory frameworks. [37]
3) Delivery expectations vs. reality
Morgan Stanley’s framework (as reported by Investing.com) assumes 1.6 million deliveries in 2026, while Reuters has highlighted near-term delivery headwinds and intense competition. [38] The stock’s premium valuation leaves little room for disappointment in delivery trends, margins, or pricing power.
4) The 2026 “product roadmap” debate: Cybercab, Optimus, and legal constraints
Some forecasts extend into 2026 with new product expectations. The Motley Fool highlighted Tesla’s stated production ambitions for a dedicated driverless vehicle (“Cybercab”) and pointed out regulatory uncertainty for cars without steering wheels or pedals. [39] Whether or not one agrees with that framing, the underlying point is valid for TSLA: autonomy success is not purely an engineering problem—it’s also a regulatory one.
Bottom line for Dec. 17, 2025: Tesla stock is trading on autonomy—while regulation sets the tempo
Tesla stock’s record run is being powered by a renewed autonomy narrative: driverless robotaxi testing, analyst target raises, and the idea that Tesla could evolve into an AI-and-robotics platform at massive scale. [40]
At the same time, California’s DMV action underscores the market’s biggest risk in one headline: Tesla’s autonomy story can be amplified—or constrained—by regulators, and the company must navigate that carefully while its valuation reflects extraordinary future expectations. [41]
References
1. www.investopedia.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.dmv.ca.gov, 4. www.investopedia.com, 5. www.investopedia.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.dmv.ca.gov, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. techcrunch.com, 12. techcrunch.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.dmv.ca.gov, 15. www.dmv.ca.gov, 16. www.dmv.ca.gov, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.investopedia.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.investopedia.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. www.trefis.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.dmv.ca.gov, 37. techcrunch.com, 38. www.investing.com, 39. www.fool.com, 40. www.investopedia.com, 41. www.dmv.ca.gov
