December 26, 2025 — Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is ending the holiday week in a familiar place: right at the intersection of cars, code, and controversy. Shares hovered around $485 in early Friday trading as U.S. markets reopened after Christmas, with price action relatively muted compared with the drama in the headlines. [1]
The calmer tape doesn’t mean the story is quiet. Tesla stock is being pulled by two forces that rarely agree: near-term delivery math versus long-term autonomy expectations. And this week, investors got fresh fuel for both sides—new regulatory scrutiny on vehicle safety, plus a steady drumbeat of robotaxi optimism heading into 2026. [2]
Tesla stock today: why TSLA is trading “boring” while the narrative stays loud
U.S. markets were closed on Christmas Day after an early close on Christmas Eve, and Friday’s session is arriving with thin holiday liquidity—a setup that often amplifies headlines but can also produce oddly restrained trading. [3]
That context matters for Tesla because TSLA has become a stock where the story can move faster than the fundamentals. On the one hand: a mainstream Wall Street focus on deliveries, pricing, and margins. On the other: a market that increasingly treats Tesla like a platform bet on autonomy, robotics, and AI infrastructure. [4]
Headline 1: U.S. regulators open a probe into Tesla Model 3 emergency door releases
The most concrete, here-and-now catalyst is regulatory. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has opened a defect investigation into Model Year 2022 Tesla Model 3 vehicles—about 179,071 cars—after a defect petition raised concerns that the manual emergency door release may be hidden, unlabeled, or difficult to locate in an emergency. [5]
A key nuance investors are weighing: this is not automatically a recall. It’s the start of a review process that could escalate if the agency finds a safety-related defect that warrants action. [6]
Why it matters for TSLA holders:
- Regulatory investigations can turn into software/UI changes, labeling requirements, or—in worst cases—hardware modifications that carry cost and reputational impact.
- The story also lands in a sensitive area for Tesla: the company’s heavy use of electronic door latches, with manual releases intended as backups. [7]
Headline 2: Q4 deliveries are the next “scoreboard moment”—and some forecasts are below consensus
Tesla’s next major scheduled catalyst is fourth-quarter deliveries, and several analysts expect a softer print than the market’s baseline.
According to an Investing.com roundup of analyst notes, New Street Research projected 415,000–435,000 Q4 deliveries versus a consensus around 440,000, while UBS forecast 415,000 (roughly 5% below Visible Alpha consensus in that report). The same report said Tesla is expected to release Q4 deliveries on January 2. [8]
The demand logic in those notes is blunt: analysts pointed to a post-incentive “hangover” in the U.S. following the expiration of the $7,500 consumer EV tax credit (as referenced in the analysts’ commentary), pressuring quarter-on-quarter U.S. volumes in their models. [9]
The bigger backdrop: Tesla’s EV business is still fighting gravity in key regions
Even as Tesla’s autonomy narrative has gained altitude, the company’s core EV business has faced real competitive and demand pressure in 2025.
A Reuters deep dive published in late November described Tesla facing sales pressure in Europe, China, and the U.S., noting steep European weakness in October and citing expectations (via Visible Alpha in that report) that Tesla’s global deliveries could decline about 7% in 2025, following a decline in 2024. [10]
This is the uncomfortable truth underneath the market’s optimism: most of Tesla’s current revenue and profit still comes from selling cars, even if a large share of its valuation is increasingly tied to autonomy and robotics expectations. [11]
Headline 3: Robotaxi momentum keeps pulling attention away from deliveries
If you want to understand why TSLA can shrug at delivery worries, you have to look at what investors believe Tesla could become.
Reuters: Tesla testing robotaxis without safety monitors (and the market loved it)
Earlier in December, Reuters reported that Tesla shares jumped after CEO Elon Musk said Tesla was testing robotaxis without safety monitors in the front passenger seat, a milestone investors interpreted as tangible forward motion toward broader autonomy deployment and the planned Cybercab push. [12]
Reuters also highlighted competitive reality: Waymo (Alphabet) already operates a large commercial robotaxi footprint, and Reuters cited reporting that Waymo was delivering roughly 450,000 paid rides per week and running 2,500+ commercial robotaxis across major U.S. cities. [13]
Business Insider: Tesla’s “Robotaxi” service in California is scaling—but not as a driverless AV program
Two Business Insider reports this month add important texture that often gets lost in the “Tesla will flip a switch and go fully autonomous” storyline.
Business Insider reported that Tesla has registered 1,655 vehicles and 798 drivers for its California ride-hailing service with the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC)—a sharp ramp from 28 vehicles and 128 drivers at launch in August, per the CPUC spokesperson. However, the report emphasized Tesla’s service is not registered as an autonomous vehicle program under California’s AV rules and that Tesla had not applied for a driverless testing permit, according to a DMV representative. [14]
Business Insider also described Tesla recruiting factory and sales staff into “AI operator” roles—humans in the driver’s seat monitoring Full Self-Driving while the system is engaged—underscoring how operationally intensive the current phase is. [15]
In other words: Tesla may be scaling a ride-hailing footprint, but the regulatory and operational pathway to fully driverless service still looks like a staircase, not a trapdoor.
Dan Ives’ 2026 prediction: robotaxis in 30+ cities (and big upside scenarios)
On the bullish end of the spectrum, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has argued Tesla could successfully launch robotaxis in 30+ cities in 2026 and scale Cybercab production, describing upside cases that extend well beyond today’s levels. [16]
That’s the gravity well Tesla bulls keep orbiting: if autonomy scales faster than skeptics expect, valuation frameworks change dramatically.
Headline 4: Musk’s pay package is back—governance matters again
Tesla’s governance story returned to center stage after the Delaware Supreme Court reinstated Musk’s 2018 Tesla pay package—now valued at about $139 billion in Reuters’ reporting—overturning a lower court decision that had voided it. Reuters also noted Tesla shareholders had already approved a separate new pay plan that could reach $878 billion if targets are met, and that Tesla has since incorporated in Texas. [17]
A day later, Reuters reported Musk’s net worth surged to $749 billion following the ruling, and highlighted how investors have endorsed Musk’s vision of turning Tesla into an AI and robotics powerhouse. [18]
For TSLA investors, this matters less as a “wow” headline and more because it speaks to:
- Control and strategic continuity (Musk’s influence and incentives)
- Litigation and governance risk (the rules of the game for shareholder challenges)
- Perception (whether Tesla is run like an automaker—or like a founder-led moonshot lab with a car division) [19]
Analyst forecasts: price targets lag the stock—an unusual tension
Here’s a spicy contradiction that TSLA watchers can’t ignore: many consensus price targets imply downside, even while the stock holds near the high-$400s.
- TipRanks reported a Hold consensus rating (11 Buys, 12 Holds, 9 Sells in the last three months) with an average price target of $385.34, implying about 20% downside from the level cited in that article. [20]
- A Nasdaq/Fintel summary reported an average one-year price target of $389.25, also implying downside from a roughly $485 reference price, while showing a very wide forecast range. [21]
- MarketBeat’s Tesla filing write-ups echoed the “mixed” stance, citing a consensus rating of Hold and an average target around $414.50 in their compilation. [22]
What this usually signals: analysts are mostly valuing Tesla with today’s visible revenue streams, while the market is pricing a bigger slice of the company as an autonomy/AI option.
Or, in plainer English: Wall Street models are building a sensible house; the stock price is buying the right to build a space elevator.
Fresh December 26 signals: institutional repositioning (13F season drip‑feeds sentiment)
Several Tesla-related items dated December 26, 2025 are less about product headlines and more about capital flows and positioning.
MarketBeat published multiple updates tied to institutional filings:
- One noted Norden Group LLC increased its TSLA stake in Q3 and summarized mixed analyst targets and near-term risks including the NHTSA petition and demand softness. [23]
- Another described Stephens Consulting LLC reducing its TSLA stake in Q3, while summarizing broader institutional ownership levels and citing insider sales in its roundup. [24]
No single 13F move is destiny. But taken together, these updates reinforce the current Tesla regime: big, sophisticated money is not monolithic on TSLA—some are adding, some trimming, and many are likely expressing views through options rather than outright stock.
So… what’s the real TSLA debate going into 2026?
Tesla stock is effectively a referendum on one question:
Does Tesla become a scaled autonomy + robotics platform soon enough to justify today’s valuation—before EV competition and regulatory drag compress the legacy business?
The near-term “bear” case (or at least the caution case) is built from tangible items investors can measure right now:
- Delivery forecasts that risk disappointment versus consensus [25]
- Ongoing sales pressure and intense competition in major markets [26]
- Regulatory scrutiny like the NHTSA door-release investigation [27]
The bull case is fundamentally about pace:
- Evidence Tesla is pushing toward fewer human safety constraints in testing [28]
- Expansion of ride-hailing footprints and operational staffing, even if still supervised [29]
- Analyst visions of multi-city robotaxi rollout and Cybercab scaling [30]
In a market mood that remains broadly supportive of AI-linked leaders, Tesla’s narrative advantage is simple: it’s one of the few mega-cap names where “AI” is not just software—it’s supposed to drive a car. [31]
What to watch next for Tesla stock
A practical TSLA checklist for the next few trading weeks:
- Q4 deliveries (expected Jan. 2) — The first hard-number catalyst that can either validate or challenge the “deliveries don’t matter” thesis. [32]
- NHTSA door-release probe developments — Any escalation, data requests, or indications of remedy scope can move sentiment quickly. [33]
- Robotaxi regulatory milestones — Especially California permitting, where Business Insider’s reporting suggests Tesla still lacks the driverless testing permissions required for true AV operations there. [34]
- Execution signals on Cybercab/robotaxi scaling — Whether Tesla can translate testing headlines into repeatable operations across cities in 2026. [35]
- Governance and incentive structure — With Musk’s pay package reinstated, how Tesla frames targets and accountability will remain part of the valuation discussion. [36]
Tesla stock on December 26, 2025 looks calm on the surface—but underneath, it’s a live argument between two timelines. The next one is measured in deliveries and investigations. The other is measured in permits, autonomy reliability, and robotaxi scaling. TSLA is priced as if the second timeline wins—and soon. [37]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.tipranks.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.businessinsider.com, 15. www.businessinsider.com, 16. www.businessinsider.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. www.nasdaq.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.businessinsider.com, 30. www.businessinsider.com, 31. www.nasdaq.com, 32. www.investing.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.businessinsider.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.investing.com
