As of 7:08 p.m. ET on Friday, December 26, 2025, Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) was last trading around $475, down roughly 2% from the prior close in late Friday trading.
Tesla’s move came as U.S. equities logged a quiet, post‑Christmas session marked by light volume and few catalysts, with the major indices finishing only slightly lower while remaining near record territory. [1]
With the regular U.S. stock market session already closed (and weekend trading hours ahead), Tesla investors are shifting into a “what matters next” mindset: near‑term catalysts around robotaxi execution, the market’s focus on Q4 delivery expectations, and a fresh federal safety investigation that could keep headline risk elevated into the new year. [2]
Tesla stock price action: where TSLA stands after Friday’s session
Tesla ended Friday lower, with late‑day trading showing TSLA around $475 and a session range that dipped into the mid‑$470s after opening above $485.
The broader market backdrop matters for TSLA right now because the final stretch of December often brings thinner liquidity, which can amplify moves in high‑beta, headline‑driven names like Tesla—especially as investors position for year‑end and the first trading days of January. Reuters described Friday’s tape as a “light‑volume” pause after a strong stretch, while also noting that market participants continue watching the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” window that runs into early January. [3]
What moved Tesla stock this week: autonomy optimism meets safety headlines
1) Federal safety scrutiny: NHTSA opens a probe into Model 3 emergency door releases
One key weight on sentiment is a new federal safety investigation.
Reuters reported that the U.S. auto safety regulator opened a defect investigation into approximately 179,071model‑year 2022 Tesla Model 3 vehicles over concerns that emergency door release controls may not be easily accessible or clearly identifiable in an emergency. Reuters noted the probe follows a defect petition alleging the mechanical release is hidden and unlabeled, and emphasized that an investigation does not automatically mean a recall will occur. [4]
Why this matters for TSLA stock: even when financial impact is uncertain, safety investigations can create headline volatility, raise questions about design choices, and influence how investors handicap regulatory pathways—particularly as Tesla pushes harder into autonomy and robotaxi narratives.
2) The robotaxi narrative: Musk confirms testing without safety monitors
On the bullish side of the ledger, Tesla’s autonomy story remains the stock’s most powerful catalyst.
Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla shares jumped after CEO Elon Musk said Tesla was testing robotaxis without safety monitors in the front passenger seat. Reuters also highlighted how much of Tesla’s valuation is tied to investor optimism around self‑driving and humanoid robotics, even though the company’s core revenue still largely comes from vehicle sales. [5]
Importantly, Reuters included commentary from Morningstar senior equity analyst Seth Goldstein, who said the development aligned with expectations that Tesla is making progress consistent with management’s prior statements, and that the market was reacting positively to that progress. [6]
At the same time, Reuters pointed to competitive context: Alphabet’s Waymo has scaled commercial robotaxi operations, which investors often use as a benchmark when debating Tesla’s timeline, safety validation, and regulatory readiness. [7]
3) The market’s near‑term “numbers” focus: Q4 deliveries expectations are sliding
Even as autonomy dominates long‑term valuation debates, Tesla’s next immediate fundamental catalyst is still the same as it has been for years: deliveries.
Multiple analyst notes and market commentary heading into year‑end point to softening expectations for Tesla’s Q4 global delivery total. For example:
- Investors.com reported Tesla is expected to report Q4 deliveries around January 2, with some analysts forecasting a year‑over‑year decline and citing pressure across major EV markets. [8]
- Investing.com summarized commentary from New Street Research’s Pierre Ferragu, who expects Q4 deliveries in a 415,000–435,000 range versus a broader consensus around ~440,000, framing the weakness as a U.S. demand “air‑pocket” after prior subsidy‑related pull‑forward. The same report also referenced UBS analyst Joseph Spak forecasting Q4 deliveries around 415,000, below a Visible Alpha consensus estimate. [9]
In plain English: Tesla bulls may be underwriting robotaxis and AI, but the next big “print” the market will grade is still vehicle volume—and estimates have been drifting down.
The demand debate: EV incentives, U.S. sales signals, and why Q4 is complicated
A critical piece of context for late‑2025 Tesla demand is the changing incentive environment.
Reuters reported in October that Tesla adjusted U.S. pricing after a $7,500 federal EV tax credit expired, noting the shift followed the end of tax incentives under legislation that eliminated credits effective September 30. [10]
Reuters also covered the market consequence: a burst of U.S. buying activity ahead of the incentive deadline, followed by tougher comparisons afterward—exactly the type of pattern that can distort quarter‑to‑quarter delivery trends. [11]
More recently, Reuters published an exclusive citing estimates from Cox Automotive indicating Tesla’s U.S. sales fell to a near multi‑year low in November, despite the rollout of cheaper versions of its best‑selling models—another data point feeding the “near‑term demand is still under pressure” narrative. [12]
And on the international side, Reuters has described Tesla as facing pressure across Europe, China, and the U.S., with a Visible Alpha view that Tesla’s global deliveries could decline year‑over‑year in 2025. [13]
Wall Street forecast check: price targets are wide, and Tesla trades like an “option on autonomy”
One reason Tesla stock remains so volatile is that analysts and investors are effectively valuing different companies:
- A carmaker with cyclical demand and margin risk
- An AI/autonomy platform with robotaxi economics
- A robotics and energy storage growth story
That “multiple narratives at once” dynamic shows up clearly in Wall Street targets.
Current analyst targets (and what they imply)
MarketWatch’s published analyst estimate snapshot for TSLA shows a high target of $600, a median target around $470.65, and a low target of $120, underscoring just how dispersed Tesla valuation views remain. [14]
Tesla’s late‑Friday trading around the mid‑$470s puts the stock near the median target in that dataset—meaning investors aren’t simply betting on a small rebound. Many are already paying for a scenario in which Tesla’s autonomy roadmap proves credible and monetizable.
Notable bear case: JPMorgan’s low target earlier in 2025
On the more cautious end of the spectrum, Reuters reported earlier this year that J.P. Morgan cut its Tesla price target to $120, citing expectations for weaker deliveries and a shift in sentiment among customers and prospective buyers. Reuters also noted the median target across the analyst universe it referenced was materially higher (reported as $370 in that March item), highlighting the debate between pessimists focused on near‑term fundamentals and optimists focused on optionality. [15]
Bull case framing: autonomy execution as the swing factor for 2026
Some of the most prominent bullish framing into year‑end has centered on 2026 as an “execution year” for autonomy. Investors.com highlighted Wedbush analyst Dan Ives as viewing 2026 as pivotal, with Tesla’s AI and autonomy ambitions driving a potentially much larger valuation over time. [16]
MarketWatch, meanwhile, has reported that Wall Street’s attention is increasingly fixed on robotaxis and AI even as EV sales weaken—an important clue to how TSLA is trading: less like a traditional automaker and more like a high‑beta AI proxy with company‑specific catalysts. [17]
Governance and headline risk: another factor investors are watching
Beyond products and deliveries, governance headlines can affect sentiment—especially for mega‑caps with large retail followings and high options activity.
Reuters reported that Tesla’s board of directors earned more than $3 billion through stock awards, based on analysis by compensation and governance specialist Equilar, and that Tesla has said its director compensation is not excessive and is tied to shareholder value creation. [18]
This doesn’t necessarily change next quarter’s earnings, but it can influence the market’s “risk premium” for a stock where narrative and trust play an outsized role.
If the market is closed: what Tesla investors should know before the next regular session
Because it’s after the regular U.S. market close and heading into the weekend, the most practical question becomes: what can realistically move TSLA when the next session begins?
Here are the main items investors are watching:
1) Next trading session timing and the New Year holiday
The next regular session is the next U.S. trading day (Monday), and the calendar matters around year‑end. The NYSE’s official holiday schedule shows U.S. markets are closed on New Year’s Day (Thursday, January 1, 2026). [19]
That holiday can compress positioning into fewer sessions—often increasing sensitivity to headlines.
2) Macro catalysts next week that can move growth stocks like Tesla
Even for a company‑specific story like Tesla, rates and macro expectations still matter because TSLA’s valuation is sensitive to discount rates.
Scotiabank’s economic calendar highlights several U.S. releases in the days ahead, including:
- Monday, Dec. 29: Pending Home Sales (10:00 a.m. ET)
- Tuesday, Dec. 30: S&P/Case‑Shiller Home Price Index (9:00 a.m. ET) and Chicago PMI (9:45 a.m. ET)
- Wednesday, Dec. 31: FOMC Meeting Minutes (2:00 p.m. ET)
- Friday, Jan. 2: Construction Spending (10:00 a.m. ET) [20]
For TSLA holders, the key isn’t housing per se—it’s whether the data and Fed messaging push market pricing toward easier or tighter financial conditions, which can quickly reprice high‑multiple stocks.
3) Tesla-specific catalysts: autonomy headlines and the Q4 deliveries report
Two Tesla‑specific items are likely to dominate the next few sessions:
Robotaxi/autonomy progress: Tesla’s ongoing testing and messaging around Full Self‑Driving and robotaxi efforts remains a primary narrative driver, as Reuters and MarketWatch have both underscored. [21]
Q4 deliveries timing: Tesla has historically released quarterly production and deliveries early in January (for example, publishing its Q4 2024 production/delivery release on Jan. 2, 2025). [22]
Market commentary heading into the turn of the year points to a similar early‑January window for Q4 2025 deliveries, with expectations under pressure. [23]
4) Regulatory updates: will the NHTSA probe expand?
Safety‑related news flow can move quickly. Investors will be monitoring whether the Model 3 emergency release investigation develops into additional requests, broader scope, or other actions.
For now, Reuters’ reporting is clear on two points: the investigation covers roughly 179,071 vehicles, and opening a probe does not automatically imply a recall—but it is a formal step that can keep attention on vehicle design and safety. [24]
The bottom line for Tesla stock (TSLA)
Tesla stock is entering the final days of 2025 trading in a familiar tension:
- The long-term upside case is still being priced through the lens of robotaxis, AI, and robotics, with each incremental sign of autonomy progress capable of moving the stock. [25]
- The near-term reality check is coming from deliveries expectations and a demand environment complicated by shifting incentives and uneven regional trends. [26]
- Headline risk remains elevated, with federal safety scrutiny now part of the narrative alongside autonomy enthusiasm. [27]
For investors heading into the next regular session, the actionable focus is straightforward: watch the macro tape (especially Fed minutes), track any autonomy-related updates, and be prepared for volatility around Q4 delivery expectations and regulatory headlines as liquidity remains seasonally thin. [28]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.investors.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.marketwatch.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.investors.com, 17. www.marketwatch.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.nyse.com, 20. www.scotiabank.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. ir.tesla.com, 23. www.investors.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com
