Taipei, July 13, 2026, 19:08 (GMT+8)
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co TPE:2330, or TSMC, reported second-quarter revenue of NT$1.270 trillion, up 36.0% year on year. June revenue jumped 67.9%, but the key figure is the quarter-on-quarter lift—up 12.0% from Q1 2026.
This is worth noting because with the NT$31.7-per-dollar rate TSMC used back in April, its Q2 revenue works out to about $40.08 billion—just $125 million under the high end of its $39.0 billion to $40.2 billion forecast. So most of the revenue number is already locked in ahead of Thursday’s earnings. Margins and guidance for the rest of the year will get more attention.
June’s headline growth gets a boost from the base effect, since last year’s number was soft. Revenue for June 2025 dropped 17.7% versus May; this June, revenue rose 6.2% from May. Solid growth, but far from a 68% true month-to-month run rate.
| Period | Revenue, NT$ billion | Year-on-year | Change from previous period | Share of Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | 410.7 | 17.5% | Down 1.1% from March | 32.3% |
| May 2026 | 417.0 | 30.1% | Up 1.5% from April | 32.8% |
| June 2026 | 442.7 | 67.9% | Rose 6.2% from May | 34.8% |
| Q2 2026 | 1,270.4 | 36.0% | Up 12.0% from Q1 | 100% |
Back in April, CEO C.C. Wei lifted the 2026 dollar-revenue forecast to more than 30% and described AI demand as “extremely robust.” Ben Barringer, who leads tech research at Quilter Cheviot, said TSMC’s chip plants were “running hot.” That outlook, tied to $122.42 billion in 2025 sales and the company’s second-half numbers, sets a new hurdle for investors. Reuters
| Full-year growth test | US$ billion |
|---|---|
| 2025 revenue | 122.42 |
| Revenue if growth hits 30% | 159.15 |
| Q1 2026 actual | 35.90 |
| Projected Q2 2026 | 40.08 |
| Estimated H1 2026 | 75.98 |
| H2 revenue needed for 30% | 83.17 |
| H2 2025 actual | 66.83 |
| Needed H2 growth vs year ago | 24.5% |
TSMC bases its Q2 and H1 estimates on its planning exchange rate, so actual dollar revenue could be different.
This means second-half sales need to come in about 9.5% higher than the estimated first half and have to be at least 24.5% above last year’s second-half just to hit 30% annual growth. That could allow for some slowdown, but orders for artificial-intelligence chips can’t just drop off. The exact bar will shift with the exchange rate TSMC reports.
Capacity ties the sales numbers to the next phase of growth. Taiwan’s science minister Wu Cheng-wen said TSMC will build a third and fourth advanced-packaging plant in Chiayi. The first plant is already running mass production, and the second should start up soon. Advanced packaging puts processors and memory together in a single module. TSMC is making more of its chip-on-wafer-on-substrate, or CoWoS, format as Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA demand keeps outpacing supply.
The capacity gap shapes how TSMC stacks up against Samsung Electronics KRX:005930 and Intel NASDAQ:INTC. In April, Wei called Intel a “formidable competitor.” He also said, “there are no shortcuts”—a new fab takes two to three years to build, then another one to two years before it’s at full run. That leaves TSMC’s lead intact for now, but rivals can grab orders when customers face shortages. TSMC
TSMC shares finished up 1% in Taipei on Monday, adding to a 57% gain for the year. The company’s quarter topped the LSEG SmartEstimate by just 0.5%. Analysts are looking for net profit to jump 58.8%. But with revenue just barely beating, focus is shifting to Thursday’s forecast to drive the next move.
But TSMC faces a tough bar. The company set its gross margin forecast at 65.5%-67.5%. If results miss that range, if second-half guidance falls short of the $83.2 billion mark, or if CoWoS growth slows, the growth story takes a hit. Currency also matters since the $40.08 billion estimate is based on a planning rate and not the actual average for the quarter.
