NEW YORK, August 4, 2026, 04:22 EDT — Nasdaq premarket activity was underway, while standard trading hours had yet to begin.
- Early Q2 projections expect revenue to reach $6.93 billion, with an anticipated operating loss of $1.55 billion.
- Starlink is forecast to post an operating profit of $1.42 billion, while anticipated capital expenditures on AI reach $10.2 billion.
- Roughly 911.5 million shares will become eligible for sale on Thursday, representing a value of $104.4 billion based on Monday’s closing price.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. NASDAQ:SPCX encounters a dual market hurdle on Tuesday. Starlink’s forecast operational profit accounts for just 13.9% of anticipated AI-related capex. In two days, 911.5 million shares owned by employees and early investors will be unlocked for trading.
The timing increases expectations for SpaceX’s initial public disclosure. Surpassing revenue targets could be secondary to proof that expenses can be covered internally. Additional available shares introduce an extra challenge.
The previous regular session ended at $114.53 following a 5.68% rebound on Monday. Shares stayed well under both the initial public offering price and the high reached in June.
| Price reference | Level | Monday close versus reference |
|---|---|---|
| Monday close | $114.53 | — |
| IPO price | $135.00 | -15.2% |
| June 16 record high | $225.64 | -49.2% |
| August 3 record low | $104.83 | +9.3% |
SpaceX dropped 5.8% over the last week from Friday to Friday. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 advanced 1.05% and the Nasdaq climbed 1.59%. The market bounced back on Monday amid widespread gains.
Initial Q2 consensus indicates swift sales growth alongside a further operating loss. The comparison is based on LSEG and Visible Alpha forecasts provided by Reuters.
| $ billions | Q1 actual | Q2 preliminary consensus | Sequential change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | 4.69 | 6.93 | up 47.8% |
| Operating result | -1.94 | -1.55 | Loss reduced by 20.1% |
| Capital expenditure | 10.10 | 14.05 | up 39.1% |
| Starlink operating profit | 1.19 | 1.42 | increase of 19.3% |
| AI revenue | 0.818 | 2.33 | jumped 184.8% |
| Launch revenue | 0.619 | 0.871 | up 40.8% |
Starlink played a leading role during the first quarter. Analysts estimate second-quarter connectivity revenue at $3.82 billion, reflecting an expected operating margin of 37.2%. In March, Starlink recorded 10.3 million subscribers, but average revenue per user declined by almost 25%.
AI is expanding at a much quicker pace. It is likewise absorbing the bulk of capital. The ratios given below are based on estimates from initial consensus, rather than projections of free-cash-flow.
| Funding comparison | Calculated ratio |
|---|---|
| Starlink operating profit as a percentage of AI capex | 13.9% |
| Starlink operating profit as a percentage of total capex | 10.1% |
| AI revenue as a percentage of AI capex | 22.8% |
| Total revenue as a percentage of total capex | 49.3% |
| AI capex as a share of total capex | 72.6% |
GraniteShares CEO Will Rhind stated that Starlink “cannot single-handedly fund a $30 billion annualized AI capex program.” Portfolio manager Michael Monaghan noted the main issue is the speed at which third-party compute revenue could balance out those expenses. Reuters
The upcoming stock unlock is expected to have a significant impact on short-term price movements. Under SEC guidelines, 20% of qualifying shares can be transferred beginning on the second trading day after the Q2 report is released. Reuters identified the initial eligible tranche as 911.5 million shares.
| Supply comparison | Amount |
|---|---|
| Initial IPO shares | 555.6 million |
| Total IPO shares with greenshoe option | 638.9 million |
| First lockup expiration shares | 911.5 million |
| Lockup shares relative to max IPO shares | 1.43 times |
| Total value at close of Monday | $104.4 billion |
| Shares traded Monday | 70.5 million shares |
| Lockup block relative to Monday volume | 12.9 times |
Qualifying to sell does not ensure immediate selling. Workers and initial backers can opt to retain their holdings. However, the block amounts to nearly 13 sessions’ worth of Monday trading volume, so even limited sales could be significant.
Operational performance continues to serve as a balancing factor. On July 24, Starship’s 13th mission carried out a short deployment of enhanced Starlink satellites. The booster did not achieve its intended controlled splashdown. SpaceX spokesperson Dan Huot stated the team had aimed for “a softer splashdown.” Reuters
Falcon maintained a rapid launch rate. SpaceX completed its 90th orbital mission of 2026 with the July 31 Starlink launch. Upcoming Starlink missions are set for August 8 from California and August 10 from Florida, according to its schedule.
The coming week will be shortened. Earnings will be released after the market closes on Tuesday, with a webcast set for 4:30 p.m. EDT. The stock unlock will begin Thursday, and two launches are planned for the weekend that follows.
SpaceX was valued at nearly $1.51 trillion at Monday’s price. According to Reuters, the stock traded at 77 times projected revenue. That ratio offers little margin for weaker Starlink growth or higher spending.
Risks: Reduced capital expenditure or improved compute bookings may prompt short covering. Continued decline could result from weaker Starlink pricing, insider share sales, or a further setback for Starship.
The main number to watch is not overall revenue. Instead, it is how much Starlink can contribute to funding AI and Starship projects. Tuesday’s report will indicate if that shortfall is closing.
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