New York, March 3, 2026, 13:42 (ET) — Regular session
- The average price for regular gas in the U.S. rose to $3.109 a gallon, according to AAA — that’s an increase of roughly 11 cents in just one day.
- Wholesale gasoline and diesel prices surged, tracking crude’s rally as concerns over Middle East supply disruptions intensified.
- Shares of U.S. refiners climbed, with investors now turning their focus to upcoming inventory numbers and any fresh policy cues.
Gasoline at U.S. pumps climbed back over $3 a gallon on Tuesday, tracking a sharp rise in crude and wholesale fuel prices triggered by deepening tensions in the Middle East.
Refiner stocks climbed in the afternoon, with investors drawn to the boost in fuel margins.
Gasoline at the pump pushed past $3 a gallon on Monday, OPIS data showed—the first time since November. Analysts figure each $10 jump in crude tacks on roughly 25 cents to gas prices, and some are bracing for $3.25 this week. Nearly 50% of respondents in a Reuters/Ipsos poll said rising oil and gas would make them less likely to back President Donald Trump’s Iran approach. Mark Malek of Siebert Financial described pump prices as “psychologically powerful,” calling them “the inflation number that consumers see every single day.” Reuters
Margins are the other piece traders are watching. Crack spreads, basically the difference between crude and refined products such as gasoline and diesel, offer a rough read on what refiners pocket from turning oil into fuel.
AAA pegged the national average for regular gas at $3.109 per gallon on Tuesday, an 11-cent jump from Monday. That average is just above the $3.097 seen this time last year, and up sharply from $2.883 a month earlier, according to AAA data.
Brent surged $6.07, or 7.8%, to $83.81 a barrel by late morning, with U.S. crude not far behind — up $6, or 8.4%, at $77.23. Both benchmarks hovered close to their highest marks since mid-2024. On the products side, NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures saw almost a 5% climb to roughly $2.48 per gallon; diesel futures jumped close to 14%. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has thinned, following the withdrawal of insurance coverage. “A greater risk to the market would be Iran targeting additional energy infrastructure in the region, leading to more prolonged outages,” ING warned. Reuters
Valero Energy climbed 2.3% in U.S. afternoon trading, while Marathon Petroleum advanced 1.5%. Phillips 66 edged 0.4% higher. Those stocks tend to follow crack spreads more tightly than the wider energy group whenever gasoline and diesel prices swing.
Still, any jump at the pump could stall out if crude prices slip or if Washington releases emergency reserves. Patrick De Haan at GasBuddy pointed out that “oil will move first” and gasoline prices “but gradually,” since refineries are already switching over to pricier summer-grade blends ahead of the travel season. Tom Kloza, a Gulf adviser, expects pump prices to move up fast—“We’ll now get there very quickly” to $3.10-$3.25 a gallon. For now, U.S. gasoline inventories sit at 254.8 million barrels as of Feb. 20, enough for about 30 days, and a signal from the White House for a Strategic Petroleum Reserve release remains possible. Reuters
Eyes are on the American Petroleum Institute’s weekly inventory numbers, expected at 4:30 p.m. ET. The U.S. Energy Information Administration follows up with its own report Wednesday morning at 10:30 a.m. ET, both watched closely for any indication that gasoline supplies are getting tighter.
Gasoline prices and refiner shares will probably keep reacting to crude news for now, as traders watch to see if the shipping and insurance bottleneck in the Gulf shows any sign of easing.
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