CHICAGO, March 21, 2026, 10:03 AM CDT
United Airlines Holdings tumbled 4.46% to $89.95 on Friday, posting the steepest decline among big U.S. airline stocks. Shares of Delta slipped 2.4%, while American was down 3.2% and Southwest lost 3.6%.
Shares slipped as United flagged new fuel headwinds and announced deeper flight reductions. The carrier warned employees it was bracing for crude to hit $175 a barrel—and to stay above $100 through 2027—a scenario CEO Scott Kirby said could tack on roughly $11 billion to United’s yearly fuel costs. United is planning to cut about five points from its scheduled flying this year, mainly trimming off-peak routes and service out of Chicago O’Hare, with Tel Aviv and Dubai routes still on hold. Still, Kirby told staff there’s “a good chance it won’t be that bad.” Reuters
The fuel shock is hitting home: jet fuel soared past $200 a barrel on Thursday, according to Reuters. That’s nearly double the ~$105 level seen before the conflict started. Most large U.S. airlines aren’t hedged—they haven’t secured fuel prices in advance.
It’s a tough moment for this move. Just days before, Delta and American bumped up their first-quarter revenue outlooks, while United pointed out the first 10 weeks of 2026 set a new bookings record for the airline. “The story for us in this quarter is about revenue demand,” Delta CEO Ed Bastian said, noting fuel prices have “almost doubled since the start of the year.” Reuters
Kirby’s message has echoed that line. Speaking at a J.P. Morgan event, he described the revenue environment as “really strong,” adding that United is aiming to completely counteract higher fuel costs this year. According to Kirby, fares booked in the last week jumped 15% to 20%. Reuters
Back in January, United set a 2026 adjusted earnings target of $12 to $14 per share, handing investors a reference point as fuel prices start to surge once more.
Concerns go beyond a single stock. International Air Transport Association chief Willie Walsh warned the Middle East conflict brings “no winners” for the aviation industry and may prompt carriers to revisit capacity plans should fuel supplies tighten. Reuters
Still, it all comes down to demand. According to Reuters, major U.S. airlines are betting on premium and corporate travelers to pick up the slack and shoulder fare hikes. That strategy could falter, though, if rising energy prices begin to pinch consumer wallets or chip away at business travel.
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