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Under Armour’s Selloff Shows Investors Still Don’t Trust the Turnaround Math
12 May 2026
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Under Armour’s Selloff Shows Investors Still Don’t Trust the Turnaround Math

New York, May 12, 2026, 13:45 EDT

  • Under Armour’s Class A stock tumbled nearly 19.7% Tuesday afternoon, trading around $4.87. Class C? Also down—off about 19.5%. This wasn’t a sector-wide slide; the drop was specific to the company.
  • Shares tumbled after the company projected fiscal 2027 adjusted earnings per share of just 8 to 12 cents, sharply missing the 23-cent consensus from analysts. Revenue, too, is seen slipping a bit.
  • Bulls have some ammo with international expansion, rising direct-to-consumer sales, and a margin comeback on the roadmap. Bears? Their case is straightforward: North America contracts again, restructuring costs are up, and profits get a lift mostly from tariff refunds.

Under Armour shares slid sharply Tuesday, with investors unimpressed by the latest turnaround update. UAA hovered around $4.87 by early afternoon, off 19.7%. The stock opened the day at $5.01 and earlier hit a session low of $4.81.

The drop wasn’t really about the three-cent adjusted loss for the quarter. What rattled investors was Under Armour’s fiscal 2027 forecast. Kevin Plank’s turnaround plan is still burning through more cash than it’s generating. For the new year, the company projected a modest dip in revenue and adjusted EPS of 8 to 12 cents—nowhere near the 23 cents Wall Street was looking for.

This quarter handed sellers plenty to work with. Revenue slipped 1% to $1.17 billion. North America sales took a harder hit, sliding 7% to $641 million. Gross margin, which tracks the percentage left after factoring out product costs, narrowed by 470 basis points to 42.0%. That’s a hefty move—since a basis point is just a hundredth of a percent.

Under Armour pointed to climbing tariffs, steeper product expenses, pricing headwinds, and a softer mix across regions. Revenue for fiscal 2026 dropped 4%, landing at roughly $5.0 billion. Footwear—a major driver in sportswear—sank 11%. That’s a problem for any brand seeking a real comeback: it’s tough to spark a revival without fresh product demand, not just trimming costs.

Since stepping back in as CEO in 2024, Plank has made it clear he wants a leaner, more disciplined Under Armour, with fewer discounts. Reuters has reported that the company’s plan calls for slashing roughly 25% of its product lines and pivoting harder toward pricier performance gear—think training, running, and team sports. On the latest earnings call, Plank pointed to a tighter focus on the lineup, marketing budgets, internal processes, and the company’s cost base.

But the overhaul is dragging on, and expenses keep climbing. Under Armour has so far booked $261 million in restructuring and transformation charges, upping its total estimate for the program to roughly $305 million. The company now expects to wrap up most of the work by December 31, 2026. For investors, it means another year of sorting things out before they’ll see what the earnings really look like.

Management kept things measured—no victory laps. Plank framed fiscal 2026 as the result of “intentional steps” aimed at resetting operations and tightening discipline. Modern marketing, he added, is now Under Armour’s “highest priority.” But here’s the wrinkle: the company’s planning to put roughly $30 million more into marketing in fiscal 2027, aiming to drum up demand well before revenue shows any rebound. UA Newsroom

There’s still an argument for the bulls. International revenue climbed 10% last quarter; direct-to-consumer was up 5%. Owned-and-operated stores posted an 8% gain, while inventory dropped by 3%. Under Armour projects a 220 to 270 basis-point increase in gross margin by fiscal 2027, citing pricing, channel mix, and around 150 basis points from expected tariff-cost reversals.

Bears point to the weak link: North America. The company is guiding for North America revenue to dip in the low single digits for fiscal 2027. That adjusted operating income forecast? It bakes in a $70 million lift from tariff refunds, but also a roughly $35 million hit from Middle East-related headwinds. There isn’t much room for error—if either figure slips, the earnings range gets tight.

Third Bridge’s Patrick Ricciardi summed it up to Reuters: Under Armour wants to cut back on discounting and push prices higher, but “tariffs, aggressive promotions and increasingly price-sensitive consumers” are making that a tall order. That’s the bear thesis, stripped to its essentials. Reuters

Prediction-market bets were leaning hard toward optimism—right up until the numbers hit. Polymarket’s Under Armour earnings market was pricing in a 61.5% chance UAA would top its non-GAAP EPS estimate. When the dust settled, though, the answer came back “No.” The stock’s drop doesn’t scream shock; rather, it looks like the air coming out of too-rosy expectations. Polymarket

The move lands harder given the competition. Nike shares dipped only slightly by Tuesday afternoon; Lululemon slipped less than 1%. Meanwhile, On hiked its 2026 margin target on the back of a 26.4% jump in first-quarter sales. The sportswear market isn’t a walk in the park. But brands that deliver—demand, margins, and a straightforward growth story—still find favor with investors.

Under Armour’s stock is stuck in prove-it mode, with each quarter needing to show the bleeding in North America is under control. Bulls want to see margin gains from something sturdier than tariff reimbursements, and marketing dollars actually lifting revenue instead of piling up as costs. For now, that chart on Tuesday sums it up—this turnaround exists, but investors aren’t handing out early rewards.

Stock Market Today

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