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Upstart Stock Falls After $1.25 Billion Fortress Deal: Why Investors Are Still Wary
29 April 2026
2 mins read

Upstart Stock Falls After $1.25 Billion Fortress Deal: Why Investors Are Still Wary

SAN MATEO, California, April 29, 2026, 11:05 PDT

Upstart Holdings shares dropped Wednesday after the AI-driven lending platform announced affiliates of Fortress Investment Group will purchase up to $1.25 billion in consumer loans through its network over a 15-month period. The stock recently traded at $30.77, down $2.09. “Resilient and stable foundation,” is how Sanjay Datta, president of capital and enterprise at Upstart, described the agreement. Fortress Managing Director Matt Biczak pointed to “efficient access to scaled origination” as a key draw. Upstart Network, Inc.

How the market responds is key here—Upstart’s model leans heavily on funding, not just loan appetite. In 2025, institutional investors snapped up 64% of the total principal for loans originated through Upstart’s marketplace. Lending partners kept or bought another 26%, while Upstart itself held onto 10% on its books, according to a filing.

Fortress’s commitment arrives just as Upstart pushes to prove it can back its loan growth with solid capital. March originations hit $1.263 billion—up 60% from the same month last year, according to unaudited, preliminary figures released monthly by Upstart.

A forward-flow agreement locks in an investor to purchase loans as they’re issued. Last week, Upstart rolled out a new deal: funds managed by Centerbridge Partners will buy as much as $1.2 billion in consumer loans over a span of 24 months. This follows a first transaction between the two companies in 2024.

Those commitments matter for a lender built around the promise of faster approvals via artificial intelligence—and, at least in theory, sharper credit pricing. Upstart claims over 90% of loans on its platform go through entirely automated processing, without any human touch from the company.

Upstart’s new annual report offered a more straightforward growth narrative than previous years. Revenue for 2025 jumped 64% to $1.0 billion. Total originations climbed 86%, reaching roughly $11.0 billion. Net income swung to $53.6 million, a turnaround from the $129 million loss posted in 2024.

Even so, lenders are feeling the pressure from consumer-finance investors. SoFi Technologies dropped Wednesday after sticking to its 2026 revenue outlook, despite hitting a record for first-quarter loan originations. William Blair’s Andrew Jeffrey noted the absence of a guidance bump would disappoint investors, though he also flagged that downside risk looks minimal.

Upstart is looking to shake up how it funds itself. Back in March, the company announced plans to seek approval from the OCC and FDIC to set up Upstart Bank, N.A., and would also go to the Federal Reserve to become a bank holding company. The move, according to Upstart, could open the door to deposit funding and help simplify both regulatory and operational hurdles.

There’s a catch: committed capital doesn’t shield Upstart from the credit cycle. In its annual report, Upstart flagged that investor capital is sensitive to swings in the economy, interest rates, market liquidity, and regulatory changes. The company also noted it could be on the hook to compensate investors if either loan performance or committed loan-sale volumes miss the mark under certain deals.

The next official word from Upstart lands soon. The company has locked in May 5 for its first-quarter 2026 results, dropping them after the bell, with a conference call set for 4:30 p.m. ET.

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