After a blockbuster Thanksgiving rally, the US stock market heads into the first full week of December with major indices hovering near record highs and the S&P 500 up more than 16% year‑to‑date. [1]
Yet behind the cheerful holiday headlines, investors face a strange mix of delayed government data, a looming Federal Reserve decision, and a wave of high‑profile AI and retail earnings that could jolt sentiment before year‑end.
Below is a detailed, SEO‑friendly guide to the key US stock market events for December 1–5, 2025 — economic reports, Fed dynamics, earnings, and what they could mean for Wall Street.
Market backdrop: strong rally, fragile mood
US equities just logged their best Thanksgiving week gains in more than a decade, with Black Friday trading extending the rally. [2] The S&P 500 is up over 16% in 2025, while the Nasdaq has gained more than 20%, powered largely by mega‑cap tech and artificial intelligence plays. [3]
Recent coverage from Reuters and others highlights three overlapping forces:
- AI euphoria vs. valuation worries – Chipmakers and cloud giants have surged on hopes that AI spending will stay explosive into 2026, but there is growing unease about whether profits will catch up with capital spending. [4]
- Government shutdown aftershocks – A 43‑day federal shutdown from October 1 to November 12, the longest in US history, has canceled or delayed key economic releases, leaving markets flying partly blind. [5]
- Fed rate‑cut speculation – Traders now price roughly an 80–85% chance that the Federal Reserve cuts rates at its December 9–10 FOMC meeting, with J.P. Morgan and other major banks publicly shifting to a “December cut” call. [6]
That combination sets the stage for a week where every datapoint and earnings call could nudge expectations for the Fed and for 2026 growth.
Theme 1: Post‑shutdown data dump – and a rare “jobs‑report‑free” Friday
Normally, the first Friday of December would feature the Employment Situation report (nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate) for November. But because of the shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has pushed that release to December 16, and completely canceled the October jobs report. [7]
Key shutdown effects relevant to December 1–5:
- November jobs report delayed:
- Originally: December 5
- New date: December 16, 8:30 a.m. ET [8]
- Several inflation and labor releases canceled or moved:
At the same time, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will finally deliver the September Personal Income and Outlays report — including the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index and core PCE — on Friday, December 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET. [11]
Taken together, that means:
- No official jobs report this Friday, an unusual break from the normal pattern.
- Instead, delayed inflation and price data (PCE, import prices) plus private surveys (ADP, PMIs, Michigan sentiment) will do much of the heavy lifting in shaping Fed expectations.
For traders, this “data fog” heightens the importance of every alternative signal about growth and inflation.
Theme 2: Fed quiet period before the December 9–10 meeting
The Fed’s December policy meeting on December 9–10 is one of the most closely watched events of the year, accompanied by a fresh Summary of Economic Projections. [12]
- Fed communications blackout:
The central bank has entered its pre‑meeting quiet period, running roughly from Saturday, November 29 through December 11, limiting policymakers’ public commentary on interest rates and the economy. [13] - Why it matters for this week:
- With little new “Fedspeak”, markets will lean heavily on data such as PCE, PMIs, jobless claims, and consumer sentiment to refine their expectations.
- A recent Barron’s piece notes that with September wholesale inflation (PPI) now released and PCE arriving before the meeting, the Fed will finally have a more complete inflation picture after weeks of shutdown‑related gaps. [14]
- J.P. Morgan and other banks now publicly expect a 25‑bp cut in December, echoing futures markets where odds for a cut hover above 80%. [15]
In short, this is the last full trading week before the Fed decides, and it comes with maximum data‑dependence but minimal Fed guidance – a recipe for volatility if numbers surprise.
Theme 3: AI, cybersecurity and retail earnings in the spotlight
While macro data get the headlines, earnings could drive sector‑level swings, particularly in tech and retail.
Across the week, widely watched names scheduled to report include: [16]
- AI & cloud / software:
- Salesforce (CRM)
- Snowflake (SNOW)
- MongoDB (MDB)
- Marvell Technology (MRVL)
- C3.ai (AI)
- UiPath (PATH)
- GitLab (GTLB)
- Okta (OKTA)
- Cybersecurity:
- CrowdStrike (CRWD)
- US and discount retail:
- Dollar Tree (DLTR)
- Dollar General (DG)
- Macy’s (M)
- Kroger (KR)
- Victoria’s Secret (VSCO)
A popular earnings calendar highlighted this set as among the “most anticipated” releases for the week of December 1, underscoring their perceived impact on AI, cloud, and consumer‑spending narratives. [17]
Given that AI‑linked megacaps have powered a huge share of 2025’s gains, analysts will scrutinize guidance and AI monetization commentary from these companies for any sign of slowing demand or margin pressure. [18]
Day‑by‑day US stock market calendar: December 1–5, 2025
Below is a trader‑friendly breakdown of the biggest scheduled events each day (all times Eastern). Exact times and participants can still change; always confirm with official sources.
Monday, December 1 – Manufacturing data and Cyber Monday consumer clues
Key economic releases
- S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (final, November) – 9:45 a.m.
- The flash reading showed manufacturing growth still modestly expansionary at 51.9, down from 52.5 in October. [19]
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (November) – 10:00 a.m.
- October’s ISM manufacturing index printed 48.7, the eighth straight month below 50, signaling contraction. [20]
- Investors will look for any move back toward 50 that might confirm the more upbeat S&P Global survey.
- Construction Spending (October) – 10:00 a.m. [21]
These data matter for cyclical sectors like industrials, materials, and small‑caps that tend to respond to changes in factory activity and construction.
Holiday sales focus: Cyber Monday
- Adobe and Salesforce data show record online holiday spending, with recent estimates pointing to double‑digit growth and Cyber Monday sales that could surpass $14 billion in the US alone. [22]
- Stronger‑than‑expected e‑commerce trends would be a tailwind for retail, logistics, and BNPL stocks, but might also reinforce the narrative that consumers are relying more on credit heading into 2026.
Notable earnings
- MongoDB (MDB) – A key read‑through on cloud‑native databases and developer demand for AI‑ready data platforms. [23]
Market angle:
If manufacturing PMIs look soft while online sales boom, investors may rotate toward services, software, and consumer‑facing winners and away from old‑economy cyclicals.
Tuesday, December 2 – Quiet macro day, busy AI & cybersecurity earnings
Macro backdrop
Kiplinger’s economic calendar notes no major nationwide data releases for Tuesday, reflecting the post‑shutdown reshuffling of BLS reports. [24]
There is a delayed state‑level JOLTS release, but markets tend to focus on the national series (now coming December 9), so equity traders will mostly treat Tuesday as a data‑light session. [25]
Earnings in focus
This “quiet” macro day is packed with tech and cybersecurity results, including: [26]
- CrowdStrike (CRWD) – A bellwether for cloud‑native security and AI‑driven threat detection.
- Marvell Technology (MRVL) – Important for data‑center, networking, and AI chip infrastructure demand.
- Pure Storage (PSTG) – High‑performance storage used in AI and analytics workloads.
- Okta (OKTA) and GitLab (GTLB) – Identity security and DevOps platforms that reveal how enterprise IT budgets are holding up.
- Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) – Offers a read on North American credit quality and global growth.
Market angle:
With little data to distract, post‑earnings moves in AI‑adjacent and cybersecurity names could dominate flows, spilling over into broader tech ETFs and the Nasdaq.
Wednesday, December 3 – ADP jobs report, delayed import prices and services PMIs
Key economic releases
- ADP National Employment Report (November) – 8:15 a.m.
- Normally overshadowed by the official jobs report, ADP takes on outsized importance this month because the November Employment Situation won’t arrive until December 16. [27]
- US Import and Export Price Indexes (September, delayed) – 8:30 a.m.
- Originally scheduled for October, these indexes are now being released on December 3 due to the shutdown. They help track imported inflation and tariff pass‑through to prices. [28]
- S&P Global US Services PMI (final, November) – 9:45 a.m.
- ISM Services PMI (November) – 10:00 a.m. [29]
Services PMIs are crucial because services inflation has been the stickiest component in the Fed’s fight to get price growth back to its 2% target. [30]
Notable earnings
- Salesforce (CRM) – The headline event for many traders this week. Salesforce’s comments on AI‑powered tools, cloud spending, and enterprise demand will influence sentiment in large‑cap software broadly. [31]
- Snowflake (SNOW) – Another key gauge of data‑warehouse and AI analytics demand.
- Dollar Tree (DLTR) – Discount store earnings are closely watched for trade‑down behavior as consumers feel the pinch of high prices and low confidence. [32]
- Royal Bank of Canada (RY) – Regional and credit‑cycle implications for North America.
Market angle:
If ADP shows soft hiring while services PMIs stay resilient, markets may lean toward a “softening labor, steady growth” narrative that reinforces expectations for a December Fed cut without panicking about an imminent recession.
Thursday, December 4 – Jobless claims, trade deficit and big retailers
Key economic releases
- Weekly initial jobless claims (week ending November 29) – 8:30 a.m.
- The Fed’s latest Beige Book already flags cooling labor demand and softer consumer spending, even as claims remain historically low. [33]
- Any uptick here will be parsed as early evidence that the labor market is catching down to gloomy sentiment surveys.
- US Trade Balance (October) – 8:30 a.m. [34]
Notable earnings
- Kroger (KR) – A major grocery chain, crucial for understanding food inflation, private‑label trends, and low‑ to middle‑income consumer health. [35]
- Dollar General (DG) – Along with Dollar Tree, a key trade‑down indicator in rural and small‑town America. [36]
- Ulta Beauty (ULTA) – A high‑end discretionary readout: beauty spending often proves resilient, but can crack when real incomes are squeezed. [37]
- Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) – Enterprise IT and server spending, including workloads linked to AI and hybrid cloud. [38]
- Canadian banks TD and BMO, plus CIBC, also report, giving further clues on credit quality and North American loan growth. [39]
Market angle:
Thursday combines labor, trade and consumer‑spending signals with heavyweight retail earnings, making it a potentially pivotal day for both rate expectations and consumer‑stock positioning.
Friday, December 5 – PCE inflation, consumer sentiment and credit
Friday is the macro centerpiece of the week.
1. September Personal Income & Outlays (includes PCE) – 10:00 a.m.
- BEA will finally release the September 2025 Personal Income and Outlays report, including: [40]
- Headline PCE price index
- Core PCE (excluding food & energy) – the Fed’s preferred inflation measure
- Economists at Barclays, cited by Kiplinger, expect roughly 0.2–0.3% month‑over‑month gains and sub‑3% year‑over‑year readings for core PCE, consistent with gradually cooling inflation but still slightly above the Fed’s 2% target. [41]
For markets, the question is whether the data reinforces the case for a December cut or raises worries that inflation is re‑accelerating under the surface.
2. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary December) – 10:00 a.m.
- The University of Michigan will publish its preliminary December consumer sentiment index, with the next release explicitly scheduled for Friday, December 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET. [42]
- Recent surveys show sentiment stuck near extremely low levels (around 51, well below pre‑pandemic norms), reflecting concerns about inflation, tariffs and the shutdown. [43]
Weak sentiment paired with strong holiday spending would highlight the “miserable but still spending” consumer — a dynamic that can’t last forever if incomes and job growth slow.
3. Federal Reserve G.19 Consumer Credit (October) – afternoon
- The Fed’s calendar shows the G.19 Consumer Credit report scheduled for Friday, December 5, updating data on revolving (credit cards) and non‑revolving (auto, student, personal) loans. [44]
- September data showed consumer credit growing at about a 2.7% annual rate, with card balances rising more slowly than installment loans. [45]
This release will help investors gauge whether households are leaning more heavily on credit to finance spending just as rates remain high.
4. Other Friday reports
- Factory orders & manufacturing shipments (October) – a check on capital‑goods demand. [46]
- New York Fed Staff Nowcast update – a timely model‑based estimate of near‑term GDP growth. [47]
What’s not coming Friday
- No November Employment Situation report – the jobs data that usually dominates the first Friday will instead arrive December 16, giving the Fed no fresh employment report before it meets. [48]
That absence puts extra emphasis on ADP, jobless claims and PMIs earlier in the week.
Notable earnings
- Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) – A niche but closely watched marker of mall traffic and discretionary apparel demand. [49]
Other global and market‑structure stories to keep in mind
Even though this article focuses on US events, a few global stories could spill into US equities during the December 1–5 window:
- OPEC+ meeting (Sunday, November 30):
The oil cartel and its allies are widely expected to keep output policy unchanged, maintaining existing cuts into early 2026 amid oversupply worries. [50]- A surprise move on quotas could quickly feed into energy stocks, inflation expectations and rate‑cut odds.
- CME outage aftershock:
A major outage at CME Group halted trading in US futures and options for more than 11 hours on November 28 before markets reopened, raising questions about the resilience of trading infrastructure. [51]- While systems are back up, any further glitches could rattle confidence just as volatility risk rises.
What this week could mean for the US stock market
Put together, December 1–5 is less about a single blockbuster event and more about how a cluster of signals line up:
- If PCE comes in benign and services PMIs cool without collapsing…
- Markets are likely to lean into the “soft‑landing plus December cut” narrative, supportive for equities overall and especially rate‑sensitive sectors like small‑caps, utilities and REITs.
- If PCE or import‑price data hint at re‑accelerating inflation…
- That could chip away at rate‑cut odds and pressure high‑valuation segments, particularly AI‑rich megacaps and long‑duration growth stocks.
- If AI and cloud earnings disappoint on guidance or margins…
- Given the heavy concentration of 2025 gains in a handful of tech names, any wobble from Salesforce, Snowflake, CrowdStrike or Marvell could trigger a broader tech de‑risking, even if macro data look benign. [52]
- If consumer sentiment stays depressed while retail earnings stay solid…
- Investors may continue to bet on resilient consumer spending, but will worry about how much is being financed by credit — especially if Friday’s G.19 report shows card balances picking up. [53]
How investors might approach the week
This isn’t personalized advice, but some general ways market participants are likely to frame the week:
- Watch Monday’s manufacturing PMIs and Wednesday’s services PMIs and ADP as early tests of the soft‑landing narrative.
- Treat Friday’s PCE release as the macro climax: it’s the last big inflation print before the Fed meets.
- Pay close attention to Salesforce, Snowflake, CrowdStrike, Marvell, Dollar Tree and Dollar General as sector bellwethers for AI/enterprise IT and the lower‑income consumer. [54]
- Remember that headline volatility may be amplified by the Fed’s quiet period and by thinner liquidity as the year winds down.
If nothing else, the week of December 1–5, 2025 will go a long way toward answering two big questions hanging over Wall Street:
Is inflation truly tame enough for a December rate cut — and is the AI‑driven bull market built on earnings reality or just hopeful narratives?
References
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