NEW YORK, March 27, 2026, 04:59 EDT
U.S. stock futures ticked up early Friday, with President Donald Trump’s decision to give a 10-day extension on his deadline for Iranian power plant strikes providing Wall Street with a modest premarket lift. Thursday’s rout had already shoved the Nasdaq into correction territory. Brent crude slipped roughly 0.7% to near $107 a barrel, still elevated enough for traders to remain cautious.
Why is this front and center? Crude swings and war news are calling the shots—domestic data isn’t. Reuters flagged that traders have assigned about a 50% probability to a Fed rate hike in September, but now the Bureau of Economic Analysis has delayed the February personal income and outlays report, which includes the PCE price index, to April 9 instead of March 27. So, Friday’s market mood will hinge on oil, fresh comments from Fed’s Thomas Barkin, Anna Paulson, Mary Daly, and any updates out of the Strait of Hormuz.
Thursday saw the Dow tumble 469.38 points to 45,960.11, with the S&P 500 dropping 114.74 points to 6,477.16. The Nasdaq gave up 521.74 points, landing at 21,408.08. That leaves the Nasdaq down 10.7% from its Oct. 29 close—a correction, by definition, after sliding more than 10% from its recent high. Energy and utilities alone managed to post gains among S&P sectors. Meta Platforms finished down almost 8%, Alphabet lost over 3%, and Nvidia slipped more than 4%, driving communication services and tech lower.
Steve Sosnick, market strategist at Interactive Brokers, described the decline as a “meaningful wakeup call” for those eyeing stock-market risk. Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel, remarked that a 10%-20% pullback wouldn’t be out of the ordinary after three robust years. He noted, however, that with technical indicators looking soft, buyers might hesitate for the time being. Reuters
Markets have swung sharply throughout the week. Just one day prior, the Dow climbed 0.66%, with the S&P 500 up 0.54% and the Nasdaq advancing 0.77%—oil slipped and traders jumped on signs of a potential de-escalation. “Frayed nerves” are showing up, Michael James at Rosenblatt Securities noted. Gene Goldman over at Cetera Investment Management expects volatility to persist until there’s more certainty around how the war concludes. Reuters
Still, the earnings story remains intact. According to LSEG figures cited by Reuters, S&P 500 companies are on track for roughly 14% first-quarter profit growth—about where estimates stood at the year’s outset. Krishna Chintalapalli, portfolio manager at Parnassus Investments, noted that U.S. firms have grown more robust in the face of geopolitical shocks.
The risks are hard to miss. According to Reuters, Macquarie has flagged the chance oil could hit $200 a barrel if the conflict stretches past June. Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva points out crude is now moving on “war longevity, not just headlines.” Should Brent start climbing again, equities would have to factor in a tougher combo: sluggish growth paired with more persistent inflation. Reuters
Thursday’s jobs numbers barely moved the needle. Initial claims ticked up by 5,000 to 210,000, yet continuing claims slipped to 1.819 million—layoffs are still muted, but hiring isn’t exactly picking up. Heading into Thursday, the Dow held a 0.8% gain for the week, while the S&P 500 had fallen 0.5% and the Nasdaq lost 1.1%. Even a modest uptick in futures Friday hasn’t put much of a dent in those declines.
