US Stock Market Today: Wall Street Extends Black Friday Rally as CME Outage, Fed Cut Bets and AI Jitters Shape November

Wall Street wrapped up Thanksgiving week with a surprisingly eventful Black Friday: stocks climbed for a fifth straight session, futures trading suffered one of its biggest outages in years, and investors closed a volatile November still obsessed with artificial intelligence, Federal Reserve policy and the strength of the US consumer. ^[1]

Below is a detailed rundown of what happened in the US stock market on Friday–Saturday, November 28–29, 2025, and what it means heading into December.

Key takeaways

Black Friday bounce: In a shortened session on Friday, November 28, the Dow Jones gained about 0.6%, the S&P 500 rose roughly 0.5% and the Nasdaq added about 0.7%, marking a fifth straight day of gains. ^[2]
Mixed month for major indexes: For November 2025, the S&P 500 and Dow finished slightly higher (around +0.1%), while the Nasdaq lost about 1.5%, its first monthly decline since March and an end to a seven‑month winning streak. ^[3]
CME futures outage: Friday’s trade was overshadowed by an 11‑hour disruption at CME Group, which froze key futures markets worldwide due to a cooling failure at a Chicago‑area data center run by CyrusOne. Trading eventually resumed, but the episode raised fresh concerns about market plumbing. ^[4]
AI and tech repricing: The AI trade remains under pressure: Nvidia ended November with a double‑digit percentage loss, Oracle fell about 23%, and Palantir dropped roughly 16%, even as Alphabet surged nearly 14% on enthusiasm around its Gemini AI model. ^[5]
Fed cut expectations firm up: Futures markets now assign around 80–87% odds that the Federal Reserve will cut rates again at its December 9–10 meeting, after two cuts earlier this year, even though inflation is still elevated and the job market is cooling. ^[6]
Cautious positioning under the surface: Despite the rally, US equity funds saw about $4.6 billion of net outflows in the week to November 26, while bond funds and money‑market funds took in cash, signaling more caution than index levels alone might suggest. ^[7]

1. Black Friday recap: a quiet session that mattered

Shortened trading, solid gains

The US stock market opened for a half‑day session on Black Friday, closing at 1 p.m. Eastern after being shut on Thanksgiving Day. ^[8]

In that abbreviated window, all three major indexes extended their winning streak:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: up 0.61% to around 47,716
S&P 500: up 0.54% to roughly 6,849
Nasdaq Composite: up 0.65% to about 23,366 ^[9]

Volumes were lower than usual — typical for the post‑Thanksgiving session — but gains were broad, with every major S&P 500 sector higher except healthcare. ^[10]

How November 2025 ended on Wall Street

Friday’s move was small, but it changed the story for the month:

The S&P 500 finished November up about 0.1%, just scraping into positive territory after spending much of the month in the red. ^[11]
The Dow also ended modestly higher for the month, supported by value and dividend‑oriented names. ^[12]
The Nasdaq, by contrast, fell roughly 1.5% in November – its first monthly loss since March and a clear sign that the market is reassessing how much it is willing to pay for high‑growth, AI‑linked tech stocks. ^[13]

On a weekly basis, though, the picture looked much brighter:

S&P 500: +3.7%
Nasdaq: +4.9%
Dow: +3.2%

It was the strongest Thanksgiving week for US stocks since mid‑2025, helped by renewed optimism about rate cuts and bargain‑hunting after a sharp mid‑month sell‑off. ^[14]

2. CME outage: futures markets’ Black Friday shock

What happened

While the cash equity session looked calm, the plumbing of global markets was under stress.

In the early hours of Friday (late Thursday US time), CME Group — the world’s largest derivatives exchange — suffered a major outage that halted trading in:

US stock index futures (including contracts tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100)
Treasury and other bond futures
Major currency pairs on CME’s EBS platform
Key commodities benchmarks such as WTI crude and gold ^[15]

According to CME and its data‑center provider CyrusOne, the disruption was caused by a failure in a chiller plant that knocked multiple cooling units offline at a Chicago‑area facility, impacting the servers that host CME’s primary trading systems. ^[16]

Futures trading was effectively frozen for more than 11 hours before CME gradually restored markets by early afternoon London time, ahead of the US cash open. ^[17]

Why it mattered for stocks

Futures are the early warning system for the stock market — traders use them to gauge sentiment before the opening bell, hedge portfolios, and manage risk around the clock.

With futures prices unavailable:

Many brokers and trading desks were “flying blind,” reluctant to quote prices without real‑time hedging tools. ^[18]
Liquidity was thinner than usual on a day that is already quiet, heightening the risk of outsized moves if any big news hit. ^[19]

In practice, the impact on the US stock market was limited because:

The outage happened during the slowest trading period of the week, and
The cash session was shortened, giving less time for any volatility to snowball. ^[20]

However, regulators including the CFTC and SEC are monitoring the incident, and strategists warn it is a “black eye” for market infrastructure that could prompt exchanges and data‑center operators to harden their systems. ^[21]

3. AI and tech stocks: a November reality check

From AI euphoria to valuation anxiety

If 2025 has been the year of AI on Wall Street, November was the month that investors started to question the price tag.

AP and Reuters both highlight that mid‑month declines in AI‑linked names drove much of the volatility:

Nvidia fell 1.8% on Friday and ended the month with a double‑digit percentage decline, despite still being up strongly year‑to‑date. ^[22]
Oracle slid about 23% in November.
Palantir Technologies lost roughly 16% over the month. ^[23]

Several strategists quoted in recent coverage argue that investors are re‑examining how quickly massive AI spending will translate into profits, and whether current valuations already assume too much perfection. ^[24]

Alphabet emerges as an AI winner (for now)

AI isn’t out of favor across the board. One big exception in November was Alphabet:

The Google parent’s shares rose nearly 14% during the month, helped by strong early reactions to its Gemini AI model and reports that Meta may use Google’s custom AI chips. ^[25]

Alphabet’s surge helped partially offset weakness in other megacap tech names and kept the broader AI narrative alive, even as investors became more selective.

Flows confirm a cautious tilt

The re‑rating of tech is also showing up in fund flows:

US equity funds recorded about $4.56 billion in outflows in the week through November 26, the first weekly withdrawal in six weeks, according to LSEG Lipper data cited by Reuters. ^[26]
At the same time, US bond funds pulled in roughly $8.6 billion, and money‑market funds attracted more than $25 billion, suggesting many investors are parking cash in safer assets while volatility in growth stocks plays out. ^[27]

4. Big stock and sector moves on November 28

Intel’s double‑digit jump

One of the most eye‑catching moves on Black Friday came from Intel:

The stock jumped about 10% after an analyst report suggested Intel could start supplying Apple with a lower‑end “M” series processor as early as 2027, strengthening its position in data‑center and AI‑related chips. ^[28]

The rally underscores how quickly sentiment can swing within the chip sector, even as the broader AI complex digests November’s shake‑out.

Healthcare lags, but pharma still a monthly winner

Healthcare was the only S&P 500 sector that didn’t finish the day higher:

Eli Lilly fell about 2.6% on Friday, dragging the sector index slightly lower. ^[29]

That said, Lilly and Merck were still among November’s standout winners, with both pharmaceutical majors up more than 20% for the month as investors rotated into more defensive, cash‑generative names. ^[30]

Retail, travel and the US consumer

With Black Friday marking the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season, traders watched retail closely:

Individual retailers were mixed on the day — for example Macy’s slipped slightly, while Kohl’s and several specialty chains advanced — but sector‑wide, fiscal‑year earnings and foot‑traffic data remain the bigger drivers. ^[31]
Analysts note that travel and leisure stocks such as Marriott and Expedia posted strong gains for the month, reflecting resilient demand for experiences even as overall economic growth slows. ^[32]

The National Retail Federation expects a record 186.9 million shoppers between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, another signal that consumer spending remains surprisingly robust, albeit more value‑conscious. ^[33]

5. Fed rate‑cut bets and the “data fog” around the economy

Markets are leaning toward a December rate cut

Under the surface of stock moves, the Federal Reserve remains the dominant force.

Traders using CME’s FedWatch tool now see an approximately 80–87% probability that the Fed will:

Deliver a third quarter‑point rate cut of 2025 at the December 9–10 FOMC meeting. ^[34]

The Fed has already cut rates twice this year to support a labour market that is showing signs of cooling. But inflation is still uncomfortably high, and policymakers remain split over how much more easing is appropriate. ^[35]

Data delays complicate the outlook

The picture is further muddied by the recent 43‑day US government shutdown, which has delayed or disrupted several key economic reports. Investors are still waiting for a full set of updated numbers on:

Manufacturing and services activity
Labour market conditions
Consumer sentiment and spending ^[36]

Until that data arrives — some of it not expected until January — strategists say markets are trading in a kind of “data fog”, leaning heavily on Fed communication and high‑frequency indicators.

Risk appetite and bitcoin as a “proxy”

One interesting subplot: Bitcoin has dropped below $90,000 from peaks above $125,000 in early October, a move some wealth managers see as a barometer of risk appetite for speculative assets more broadly. ^[37]

If risk sentiment continues to wobble in crypto and high‑beta tech, it could temper the year‑end rally in equities, even if the Fed does deliver another cut.

6. Weekend coverage (November 29): how analysts are framing the rally

With markets closed on Saturday, November 29, weekend articles and notes focused on digesting the month and looking ahead:

Wall Street Journal and others emphasised that the S&P 500 and Dow have now risen for seven consecutive months, even though the Nasdaq just posted its first monthly loss since March, highlighting a rotation away from the most richly valued growth names. ^[38]
Investopedia’s Friday wrap framed the week as the best for US indexes since June, but stressed that the break in the Nasdaq’s winning streak reflects growing skepticism about the durability of the AI boom. ^[39]
A Reuters “Wall St Week Ahead” piece argued that AI profitability and fresh economic data will be key to stabilizing the market in December, particularly as investors scrutinize earnings from cloud software and big‑box retailers and assess early holiday‑spending trends. ^[40]
Kiplinger and other outlets echoed the theme that stocks have extended their win streak, but urged caution about stretched valuations and the potential for an AI “air pocket” if earnings don’t keep pace with expectations. ^[41]

Taken together, the tone of weekend commentary is constructive but wary: the US stock market is still in an upward trend, yet the drivers have shifted from “AI at any price” toward a more balanced mix of quality, cash flow and interest‑rate sensitivity.

7. What to watch in the week ahead

Looking beyond the 28–29 November news cycle, several catalysts could steer the US stock market in early December:

Economic data releases
- The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, as well as data on personal income, spending, and factory orders, will help clarify whether inflation is easing quickly enough to justify another rate cut. ^[42]
- Labour indicators like ADP private payrolls and job‑cuts data will shape expectations for growth and corporate earnings in 2026. ^[43]
Corporate earnings and guidance
- Reports from Salesforce, Kroger, Dollar Tree, Dollar General, Macy’s and other retailers will offer fresh color on enterprise software demand and consumer spending. ^[44]
AI and chip headlines
- Any new announcements around AI infrastructure spending, chip supply deals, or regulatory scrutinycould quickly move stocks like Nvidia, Alphabet, Intel and their peers.
Follow‑through after the CME outage
- Regulators’ response and CME’s own remediation steps may influence how investors view operational riskin exchanges and data‑center infrastructure.

Bottom line

From a headline perspective, US stocks ended November on a high note: the Dow and S&P 500 eked out monthly gains, and Thanksgiving week delivered the strongest rally since mid‑year, supported by rising expectations of a December Fed rate cut and a resilient US consumer. ^[45]

Under the surface, though, the market is rebalancing:

The AI trade is maturing, with investors differentiating between long‑term winners and over‑extended stories.
Flows into bonds and cash show that many portfolios are becoming more defensive.
The CME outage was a stark reminder that market‑structure risk can surface even on supposedly quiet days. ^[46]

As December begins, Wall Street enters the final stretch of 2025 optimistic but on edge — betting on a gentle policy pivot from the Fed, solid holiday spending, and a more sustainable pace for AI‑driven growth.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security.

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