NEW YORK, March 29, 2026, 13:10 EDT
The Dow tumbled into correction territory Friday, following the Nasdaq’s earlier slide and marking a 10% pullback from its recent peak. The S&P 500 notched its fifth consecutive weekly loss. Investors now turn to Friday’s March payrolls release, but with the NYSE shut for Good Friday, markets won’t get to react until trading resumes Monday.
Tuesday wraps up a tough quarter, with the S&P 500 off roughly 7% so far in 2026. Oil has pushed back up near $100 a barrel, and the 10-year Treasury yield broke past 4.4%, making it pricier for investors looking ahead to future earnings. “Headline-driven” trading is the name of the game until there’s more clarity on Iran, according to Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors. Reuters
Investors will see new data on both consumers and manufacturing ahead of payrolls. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence numbers arrive Tuesday. Then, on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, the Census Bureau plans to release the delayed February retail sales report. ISM’s March manufacturing data is expected at 10 a.m. ISM’s services survey, pushed by the exchange holiday, moves to Monday, April 6.
Conditions are softening but haven’t cracked. The University of Michigan’s sentiment reading slipped to 53.3 in March, and one-year inflation expectations ticked up to 3.8%. S&P Global’s flash purchasing managers’ index dropped to its lowest level in 11 months. On the jobs front, though, weekly claims still suggest what economists describe as a low-hire, low-fire environment. Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial, cautioned that consumers might “throw in the towel” if gas prices keep climbing and stocks continue to fall. Reuters
The Federal Reserve doesn’t have much leeway to calm stocks right now. According to a Reuters poll, most economists are still betting on at least one rate cut this year—but not before September. Markets, though, have mostly written off the chance of easing, with traders assigning almost a 30% probability to a rate hike instead. Jonathan Millar, senior U.S. economist at Barclays, called it “entirely plausible” that the Fed holds off on cuts until next year, while Vice Chair Philip Jefferson flagged that persistently higher energy prices could drive inflation higher and crimp consumer spending. Reuters
Bonds are starting to weigh on stocks, too. On Sunday, a Reuters Morning Bid podcast pointed to lackluster Treasury auctions and fatter trading spreads—both hinting at thinner liquidity. The Mortgage Bankers Association also reported the average 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 6.43%, its highest mark since October, after a leap in the 10-year Treasury yield from 3.96% to 4.39% since the war broke out.
Earnings have to take on a bigger role now. Nike will post results after the bell Tuesday, with investors listening closely: will executives echo the upbeat demand commentary from Delta Air Lines and United Airlines, or strike a more cautious note? According to LSEG figures cited by Reuters, S&P 500 earnings growth for the first quarter is still tracking close to 14%. “So much is happening, yet nothing is happening,” said Krishna Chintalapalli, portfolio manager at Parnassus Investments. Reuters
Diplomacy remains the optimal route here. On Sunday, Pakistan brought together Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia for talks centered on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Still, Fed Governor Lisa Cook flagged this week that war has tilted risks toward inflation. So, a solid jobs print could reinforce expectations that rates aren’t coming down soon. On the flip side, a soft number might reignite recession worries as Q2 gets underway.
