NEW YORK, June 21, 2026, 13:03 (EDT)
- Stocks in the U.S. start trading again on Monday following the NYSE Juneteenth holiday break Friday. Last week, the S&P 500 gained 0.93%. The Nasdaq added 2.43%. The Dow rose 0.71%.
- May PCE inflation data comes Thursday and Micron reports Wednesday, two tests for investors watching Fed-rate odds and the AI trade.
- Risks are still out there. Talks between the U.S. and Iran, trouble with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and more oil volatility could all hit inflation hopes pretty fast.
Stocks go into the last full week of June with AI leaders still leading, but there’s less margin for error now as investors look ahead to an important inflation print and Micron Technology’s results. Last week was shortened by the Juneteenth holiday—NYSE closed on Friday, June 19. Thursday’s session was the last cash close.
The rally is back near records just as the Federal Reserve sounds less supportive. The S&P 500 jumped 1.08% Thursday to close at 7,500.58. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.91% to 26,517.93. The Dow edged up 0.14% to finish at 51,564.70, according to Reuters. For the week, the Nasdaq did best.
Stocks bounced after a steeper drop Wednesday, when the Fed kept its target rate at 3.50%-3.75% and called inflation elevated. In a short statement, the central bank said, “The Committee will deliver price stability.” Markets saw that as a sign rate cuts are still a ways off. Federal Reserve
PCE price index on Thursday is the big macro number. The gauge tracks what U.S. consumers pay, and the Fed pays close attention. Core PCE leaves out food and energy. In April, the PCE price index was up 3.8% from a year ago, and core PCE climbed 3.3%. May’s PCE comes out June 25.
Micron is on deck to report the day before. Reuters noted that investors look to the memory-chip maker’s June 24 earnings as a test for AI demand. Micron stock is up 298% in 2024. Andy Pratt, director of investment strategy at Burney Company, said the AI trade still has “a lot of juice.” Steve Kolano, chief investment officer at Integrated Partners, called it a “classic positive feedback loop.” Reuters
Semis rallied hard Thursday. The Philadelphia semiconductor index popped 6.4%, Intel surged 10.6% on news from President Donald Trump that Apple plans to partner with Intel on U.S. chip design and manufacturing, according to Reuters. Micron’s results will land right after that, with the market watching demand for high-bandwidth memory used in AI on Nvidia-centric systems.
Flows are in focus too. Scott Rubner, who runs equity and equity derivatives at Citadel Securities, said the end of June is “one of the most technically important periods of the year.” He pointed to retail trading, index reshuffling, and pension fund adjustments moving markets. Options—contracts that let traders buy or sell at set prices—can make those moves bigger when big positions roll off or get rebuilt. Business Insider
Labor numbers stayed on track for bulls. Initial jobless claims dropped 4,000 to 226,000 for the week ended June 13, Reuters reported. Continuing claims edged up to 1.810 million. Nancy Vanden Houten at Oxford Economics said the claims fit with a job market that’s better but not overheating, which could let the Fed pause on inflation.
Still, risks are easy to spot. A hotter PCE print would firm up bets on higher rates. Fresh tensions near the Strait of Hormuz could drive oil higher just when investors want relief on energy. On Sunday, Reuters said Vance met with Iranian officials in Switzerland. Iran claimed the strait was closed, but U.S. officials pushed back. U.S. Central Command said 55 merchant ships passed through Saturday.
The market isn’t looking tired so far, but it is picking its spots. AI, chips, and a handful of big growth stocks are still setting the pace, while policy worries and oil keep pushing at the margins. A softer inflation print and solid Micron numbers could push stocks up through quarter-end. A miss would make last week’s bounce look more like a squeeze than a verified move.
