New York, Jan 9, 2026, 15:36 EST — Regular session
Valero Energy Corp (NYSE: VLO) shares were down $5.82, or about 3%, at $185.50 in mid-afternoon trade, after swinging between $182.70 and $194.50. Marathon Petroleum was little changed and Phillips 66 fell about 1.2%, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust rose 0.8%.
The move matters now because refiners are trying to price a fast-shifting crude story into near-term earnings. Crack spreads — the gap between crude costs and fuel prices — can swing quickly when geopolitics hits supply, and investors have been quick to fade the latest headlines.
U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in December, with payrolls up 50,000 and the unemployment rate dipping to 4.4%, a report showed. The data reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at its Jan. 27-28 meeting, keeping the focus on commodity moves and margins rather than cuts. 1
Oil climbed again on Friday as supply risks came back into view. Brent settled up 2.18% at $63.34 a barrel and WTI closed up 2.35% at $59.12; “The uprising in Iran is keeping the market on edge,” Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, said. 2
On the stock, Piper Sandler analyst Ryan Todd trimmed his price target to $217 from $223 and kept an “overweight” rating. He flagged “a bearish crude outlook” that he said could make it harder for the sector to beat the broader market. 3
Washington’s Venezuela push is still the bigger swing factor sitting behind refining names. The White House was convening a meeting on Friday with oil companies, traders and drillers — including Valero and Marathon — to discuss potential investment in Venezuela’s energy sector, a White House official said. 4
Valero also has a California issue in play. The company has said it will keep importing gasoline into Northern California after its Benicia refinery ceases operations in April 2026, with the idling set to roll out in phases starting in February for mandatory state inspections; Valero said it would keep supplying the market and remain in touch with state officials. 5
The next hard date is earnings. Valero Energy Corporation said it will release fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Jan. 29 before the market opens, with a conference call set for 10:00 a.m. ET. 6
But the Venezuela upside case is still a headline trade, not a settled pipeline. Traders and oil executives have voiced skepticism about how fast new barrels could move given degraded infrastructure and political risk, even as firms jockey for U.S. government deals tied to exports of up to 50 million barrels of oil PDVSA has accumulated in inventories, Reuters reported. 7
For Valero, investors are watching for any read-through from the White House meeting on Venezuela, day-to-day moves in crude and crack spreads, and how management frames margins and runs when it reports on Jan. 29.
