NEW YORK, Jan 9, 2026, 20:45 EST — Market closed.
- Valero shares fell on Friday as refiners tracked Venezuela-related crude supply headlines
- Fresh analyst notes kept focus on valuation and 2026 margin sensitivity
- Next catalyst is Valero’s Jan. 29 earnings report and conference call
Valero Energy Corp shares fell 3.2% on Friday as investors weighed fresh analyst tweaks and fast-moving Venezuela headlines that could reshape heavy crude flows. The stock last traded down $6.04 at $185.28, after swinging between $182.70 and $194.50.
The move matters because refinery earnings can turn quickly when feedstock costs or fuel prices shift. A key yardstick is the crack spread — the gap between crude costs and the value of products such as gasoline and diesel — and it has become the market’s shorthand for whether a refiner is printing cash or just keeping lights on.
Washington’s Venezuela push has landed on refiners’ screens because it could change crude “differentials”, the price gaps between grades. The White House asked trading houses Trafigura and Vitol to provide logistic and marketing services for sales of Venezuelan oil, executives said, a step aimed at steering exports; “We’re here to ensure that you’re going to be able to move all of this oil all around the world,” Vitol executive John Addison told an online meeting. 1
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Chevron saw “a pathway to grow their production by 50% in the next 18-24 months,” adding that what Washington could do amounted to “permissions, approvals.” For refiners like Valero, a bigger stream of Venezuelan heavy barrels could become a margin variable in 2026, especially if it alters the discounts on heavier crude. 2
On the Street, Mizuho analyst Nitin Kumar raised his price target on Valero to $197 from $192 but kept a Neutral rating, saying he expects a “strong quarter.” Piper Sandler analyst Ryan Todd cut his target to $217 from $223 and kept an Overweight rating, writing that “the song remains similar” even as he sees refining markets “even better than 2025” on tighter supply and demand and crude-differential tailwinds. 3
Valero and other Gulf Coast operators have spent decades tuning plants for heavy, sour crude — oil that carries more sulfur and needs more processing. Reuters reported this week that large refineries from Corpus Christi, Texas to Pascagoula, Mississippi can squeeze about 25% more gasoline and diesel from heavy barrels than from light sweet crude, boosting profits by about $5 a barrel in the right market. 4
But the trade cuts both ways. If Venezuela barrels do not show up in size, or if product demand softens and crack spreads narrow, the group can give back gains fast; a fat crude discount only helps if fuel prices hold up.
Before markets reopen on Monday, traders will watch heavy-crude differentials and any fresh U.S. decisions on Venezuela that could ripple through refinery feedstock costs. Valero, which runs 15 refineries with combined throughput capacity of about 3.2 million barrels per day, is due to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Jan. 29 before the market opens, with a conference call at 10 a.m. ET. 5
