NEW YORK, March 4, 2026, 08:36 (EST)
- Venture Global shares surged after a New York court turned down Shell’s attempt to overturn an LNG arbitration award.
- The move lands just as the U.S. LNG market faces pressure from a Qatar outage and limited supply worldwide.
- Venture Global has been increasing Plaquemines output while also signing new mid-term LNG sales contracts.
Venture Global, Inc. surged over 8% on Tuesday, rallying after a New York court tossed out Shell’s attempt to overturn an arbitration win for the U.S. LNG company. UBS analyst Manav Gupta weighed in: “We believe the stock price remains depressed due to arbitration overhang. This news will likely be seen as a positive.” Venture Global touched its highest level since Oct. 10, bringing gains this year to more than 87%. BP, Edison, Repsol, and Galp are also in arbitration, with a damages decision still pending in BP’s case. Reuters
This ruling hits right at a recurring issue for Venture Global: can the company really convert those start-up cargoes into deliveries under contract, or will it face years tangled in disputes? Arbitration happens behind closed doors. The spot market, on the other hand, covers short-term LNG sold at going rates.
Venture Global posted a 191% jump in adjusted core profit to $2.0 billion for the fourth quarter on Monday, while net income increased roughly 23% to $1.07 billion, driven by greater LNG sales from its Plaquemines facility in Louisiana. CEO Mike Sabel told analysts all 36 production trains are operating, and the target is to get Phase 1 into commercial service by the fourth quarter. The first phase of the planned CP2 export project remains on track, with a final investment decision on CP2 Phase 2 still expected in the first half of 2026, he said. Reuters
Justice Joel Cohen determined the court should give “substantial deference” to the arbitration outcome, seeing no grounds to dig up additional evidence. He dismissed Shell’s allegations of misrepresentations as “pure speculation,” finding the company failed to offer “clear and convincing evidence” backing fraud or misconduct claims. Shell said it was “disappointed in the outcome.” Venture Global, for its part, said it was pleased with the court’s “complete denial” of Shell’s bid to overturn the decision. Calcasieu Pass began commercial operations in April 2025, having previously targeted an October 2022 start. Reuters
Venture Global has signed a deal to supply Trafigura with roughly 0.5 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of U.S. LNG over a five-year stretch beginning in 2026, according to both firms. Sabel described the move as a way to “diversify the tenor of our LNG portfolio,” saying it builds out their lineup of mid-term contracts. Reuters
Igor Marin, Trafigura’s global head of gas, power and renewables, described the agreement as something that “strengthens and diversifies” Trafigura’s portfolio. He also pointed out the rising importance of U.S. LNG supply, calling it “increasingly critical to global energy security.” Venture Global LNG
U.S. LNG plants are already pushing close to their limits, with Qatar’s production stoppage on Monday shrinking global spare supply, Reuters figures and analysts show. “There is no massive capacity on the sidelines,” said Alex Munton, director of global gas and LNG at Rapidan Energy Group. The U.S. is shipping out almost 19 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) right now. Venture Global, the nation’s No. 2 LNG producer, stands out for its ability to move as much as 4 bcfd of commissioning volumes — that’s LNG made during start-up testing — from Plaquemines directly into the spot market. Cheniere Energy’s new output, on the other hand, is mostly tied up under contract. Reuters
Just two days ago, Sabel claimed Venture Global holds the largest stash of uncontracted LNG cargoes globally and stands ready to step in as Qatar’s production halt sends shockwaves into winter demand. According to him, markets “have not yet reflected” the price fallout—he called it a “challenging time.” Meanwhile, a source familiar with the situation said QatarEnergy was getting ready to trigger force majeure, the contract clause reserved for major disruptions. Reuters
Venture Global on Tuesday announced a cash dividend of $0.018 per share, set to be paid out March 31 to shareholders registered by March 16. Venture Global LNG
Still, Shell’s legal battles aren’t over yet. The risk of a negative damages ruling in other pending arbitrations remains, and if the company struggles to move volumes from commissioning to regular contract shipments, the shares could stay under pressure.
Venture Global stands out from competitors like Cheniere, largely because it leans more on the spot market. Cheniere, with its longer-term deals, typically misses out on abrupt run-ups in prices—yet those contracts also help head off conflicts with buyers. Traders are eyeing U.S. regulators for any moves on Plaquemines output, and whether Venture Global can stick to its planned expansion schedule.
