NEW YORK, March 12, 2026, 09:11 EDT
American Airlines Group shares slipped to $11.04 early Thursday, off 0.6% from Wednesday’s finish. Oil temporarily topped $100 a barrel after new Gulf shipping attacks, adding to the drag on airline stocks.
The shift is significant: fuel ranks just behind labor in airline expenses, and the cost of the fuel burned is outpacing crude. Since the Iran conflict kicked off, jet fuel prices have soared—doubling, according to Reuters. Crude’s only up about a third in that span, so margins are getting squeezed before airlines can even think about raising ticket prices.
American faces a bigger hit here. Most big U.S. airlines backed away from fuel hedging years back—ditching contracts that would’ve locked in prices. According to Reuters, per recent regulatory filings, every penny uptick in jet fuel tacks roughly $50 million onto American’s yearly fuel tab. Delta, though, isn’t as exposed, thanks to its Pennsylvania refinery.
It’s been a rough stretch for the sector. On March 9, American shares dropped 3.44%; U.S. airline names across the board lost ground, sliding anywhere from 1% to 5%. TD Cowen’s Tom Fitzgerald didn’t mince words, saying margin expansion this year is a tough ask unless energy prices come down fast.
Nicolas Owens, equity analyst at Morningstar, flagged that a surge in fuel prices will squeeze U.S. airlines’ March profits. Here’s the rub: ticket sales are locked in far in advance, meaning airlines get stuck with higher fuel bills before they can raise fares.
American kicked off 2026 sounding more upbeat to investors. Back in January, it projected full-year adjusted earnings of $1.70 to $2.70 per share—topping what analysts were expecting then. The company highlighted robust demand for premium seats, steadier corporate travel, and a boost in loyalty revenue.
But American doesn’t have much margin for missteps compared to competitors. Back in February, Reuters noted its adjusted pretax profit for 2025 stood at $352 million—far behind Delta’s $5 billion and United’s $4.6 billion. That wide profit gap isn’t lost on management, which is facing mounting pressure to catch up.
Comments from industry peers haven’t done much to lift the mood. United CEO Scott Kirby warned last week that rising fuel costs were likely to have a “meaningful” impact on first-quarter numbers. Shares of other big airlines—American, Delta, and Southwest—were already off between 3% and 5% that day, according to Reuters. Reuters
Things could still go south. Even with the recent wave of strategic oil releases, traders remain jittery. Goldman Sachs warned Thursday that daily oil prices might punch through the 2008 peak if the Strait of Hormuz disruptions drag on into March. For U.S. consumers, that spells bigger fuel bills landing before any price relief.
There’s a new date on the docket for investors. American is slated to speak at J.P. Morgan’s Industrials Conference on March 17, a setting that might shed light on fuel costs, ticket prices and how spring bookings are shaping up.
