NEW YORK, March 11, 2026, 09:17 EDT
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) shares pointed roughly 3% lower to $11.11 just ahead of the New York open, with investors dumping airline stocks vulnerable to rising fuel bills. Oil prices remained volatile after crude markets were rattled earlier this week. Reuters
The latest selloff is hitting American at a rougher spot than Delta Air Lines or United Airlines, with less room to maneuver if fuel costs bite. American posted just $352 million in adjusted pretax profit for 2025 — a far cry from Delta’s $5 billion and United’s $4.6 billion. Now, analysts are watching for big U.S. airlines to possibly rethink their guidance ahead of an industry conference set for next week. Reuters
Selling hit most carriers, but American lagged noticeably. Delta shares dropped roughly 2.2% premarket, with United off 3.6%, and Southwest Airlines edging 0.5% lower. Tuesday saw American, Delta, United, and Alaska each settle between 2% and 4% lower, despite a short-lived dip in oil prices. Reuters
Oil held its pivot role. Brent hovered near $91 a barrel by 1159 GMT on Wednesday, bouncing back even as the International Energy Agency moved ahead with a record emergency stock release. Just a day before, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected Brent could remain above $95 for the next two months if the Iran war keeps choking supply. Reuters
That shakes up airline business models dependent on stable fuel costs. Jet fuel, running at $85 to $90 a barrel before Iran was hit, has now leapt to $150–$200, according to Air New Zealand. European and Asian airlines still regularly hedge fuel with contracts that secure pricing, a strategy most major U.S. carriers typically avoid. Reuters
American faces a steeper climb when jet fuel prices tick up. According to regulatory filings cited by Reuters, each additional cent per gallon tacks on around $50 million to its yearly fuel bill. That’s notably higher than Delta’s $40 million impact and nearly double Southwest’s $22 million. Reuters
“Hard to envision margin expansion this year barring a rapid decline in energy prices,” TD Cowen’s Tom Fitzgerald wrote. Back in January, American had told investors it was targeting 2026 adjusted earnings per share between $1.70 and $2.70, and free cash flow over $2 billion. Reuters
American flagged a bit more cushion on March 9. The company bumped its total revolving commitments up to $3.11 billion from $3.0 billion and pushed out main maturity dates to March 2031—moves that beef up its liquidity in case fuel costs bite or bookings cool. SEC
The risk side is pretty clear. American wrapped up 2025 carrying $36.5 billion in total debt, still aiming to get that under $35 billion by year-end. That target could get shaky if jet fuel prices remain elevated through the second quarter and fare increases don’t hold. The challenge grows, considering the carrier’s heavy reliance on price-sensitive leisure travelers and short flights. SEC
The outlook isn’t closed off just yet. According to Reuters this week, passenger numbers are climbing faster than available seats, and a few airlines are logging all-time highs for spring-break bookings—factors that could give carriers enough leverage to raise prices. Investors will be watching American’s appearance at the J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference on March 17 for any signal on management’s stance. Last month, CEO Robert Isom stressed that “2026 can’t just feel different. It has to be different.” Reuters
