S&P 500 Near Record High on December 5, 2025 as Fed Rate Cut Bets Rise

Published: December 6, 2025 | Market data as of close on Friday, December 5, 2025

The S&P 500 inched closer to a fresh all‑time high on Friday, December 5, 2025, as Wall Street doubled down on expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its meeting next week. The benchmark index gained 0.2%, closing at 6,870.40 — about 1% below its record — and logging a second straight week of gains. ^[1]

Beneath that modest move, the story was bigger: delayed inflation data, a historic government shutdown, AI-driven market concentration, and an upcoming index reshuffle are all shaping how investors are positioning into year‑end.

S&P 500 Today: How the Market Closed on December 5, 2025

At Friday’s close:

S&P 500: 6,870.40, up 13.28 points (+0.19%)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 47,954.99, up 104.05 points (+0.22%)
Nasdaq Composite: 23,578.13, up 72.99 points (+0.31%) ^[2]

For the week:

S&P 500: +0.31% (second straight weekly gain) ^[3]
Dow: +0.5%
Nasdaq: +0.91% ^[4]

For the year to date, the S&P 500 is now up 16.8% in 2025, while the Nasdaq has surged 22.1% and the Dow has gained 12.7%, according to Associated Press figures. ^[5]

Market breadth remains constructive: on Friday the S&P 500 posted 33 new 52‑week highs and just 7 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 116 new highs and 61 new lows. Trading volume reached 16.2 billion shares, slightly below the 20‑day average of 17.7 billion, suggesting a firm but not frantic bid into the weekend. ^[6]

Why the S&P 500 Rose: Inflation Data, Consumer Spending and Fed Hopes

Friday’s move was driven less by any spectacular headline and more by a steady drip of data that reinforced the same narrative: inflation is cooling just enough for the Fed to ease, but not so quickly that it screams “recession.”

Delayed but important inflation data

Because of a 43‑day U.S. government shutdown, key economic releases have been delayed and are now arriving in a batch. Investors spent Friday dissecting:

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – which
- rose 0.3% month‑on‑month in September, matching August’s pace
- climbed 2.8% year‑on‑year, up slightly from 2.7%, and in line with forecasts ^[7]
Consumer spending, which grew 0.3% in September, exactly matching economist expectations after a downwardly revised 0.5% gain in August. ^[8]

Separately, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index ticked up to 53.3 in early December, beating expectations of 52 and hinting that households remain cautious but not panicked. ^[9]

Fed futures: Pricing in a December rate cut

Traders responded by increasing their bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting:

Fed funds futures now imply about an 87% probability of a quarter‑point cut, up dramatically from below 30% just two weeks ago. ^[10]
Several Fed officials have publicly signaled support for a reduction, reinforcing that shift in expectations. ^[11]

As one portfolio manager quoted by Reuters put it, the market is now squarely focused on “what they say following the meeting” — in other words, not just whether the Fed cuts, but how many cuts might follow in 2026. ^[12]

“Bad news is good news” still in play

Earlier in the week, ADP payroll data showed private employers shedding 32,000 jobs in November, a surprisingly weak reading that actually pushed stocks higher by strengthening the case for easier monetary policy. ^[13]

At the same time, jobless claims dropped to a three‑year low, while corporate layoff announcements jumped 24% from a year earlier, underscoring how noisy the labor data has become. ^[14]

That mix — softer job growth, low headline unemployment, and steady consumer spending — has sustained the “Goldilocks” narrative that gives the S&P 500 room to climb without forcing the Fed to stay too hawkish.

Inside the S&P 500: Sector Winners, Laggards and Breadth

Under the surface, Friday’s action had a clear profile.

Communication services at a record high

The Communication Services sector was the standout, gaining nearly 1% and closing at a record high within the S&P 500. ^[15]

A big part of that move came from media and streaming names:

Warner Bros Discovery jumped 6.3% after Netflix agreed to buy its TV, film studios and streaming division in a $72 billion deal, ending a weeks‑long bidding war.
Netflix itself fell 2.9%, as investors weighed the price tag and integration risks.
Paramount Skydance — a rival bidder — slumped 9.8%. ^[16]

Healthcare slips on vaccine policy shock

On the flip side, healthcare stocks lagged after vaccine advisers moved to scrap the longstanding recommendation that all U.S. newborns receive the hepatitis B vaccine at birth. That policy pivot weighed on sentiment toward parts of the healthcare sector and helped drag the S&P 500 Healthcare index into the red for the session. ^[17]

Retail standout: Ulta Beauty

Among individual names, Ulta Beauty surged 12.7% after the beauty retailer raised its annual sales and profit forecasts, offering a bright spot for the broader consumer sector and suggesting that mid‑to‑high‑income shoppers are still willing to spend on discretionary items. ^[18]

Small caps and market breadth

While the S&P 500 is the headline index, small‑cap stocks have quietly staged a powerful rebound:

The Russell 2000 is up 0.8% this week after a 5.5% jump last week, as investors rotate into names that are seen as bigger beneficiaries of lower interest rates. ^[19]

Analysts note that:

The mega‑cap tech and AI leaders are still dominating returns, but
Both the equal‑weighted S&P 500 and the small‑cap complex are now within striking distance of their own record highs, suggesting broadening participation rather than a narrow, fragile rally. ^[20]

The Bigger Picture: AI, Concentration Risk and a Broadening Rally

Even as the index hovers near records, strategists are wrestling with two big, somewhat conflicting themes:

Extreme concentration in the largest S&P 500 names
Signs that leadership is gradually broadening beyond the “AI trade”

Mega caps vs the rest of the S&P 500

Research from RBC Wealth Management highlights how unbalanced this bull market has become:

Since the current bull run began on October 12, 2022,
- the 10 largest S&P 500 stocks have gained about 175%,
- the overall S&P 500 is up roughly 100%, and
- the equal‑weighted S&P 500 has risen just 58% on a total‑return basis. ^[21]
Looking back to 2016, by December 2, 2025, the S&P 500 Top 10 Index had risen more than 600%, versus almost 300% for the standard S&P 500 and close to 200% for the equal‑weight version. ^[22]

Eight of those ten mega caps are heavily involved in AI (NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom, Meta Platforms and Tesla), with Berkshire Hathaway and JPMorgan also getting a tailwind from AI‑driven activity. ^[23]

RBC argues that this isn’t purely “AI hype”: tech sector earnings have outgrown the broader market by a wide margin since early 2023, and consensus forecasts still expect the Information Technology sector to deliver faster earnings growth than the rest of the S&P 500 through at least Q1 2027. ^[24]

However, RBC also warns that after such a huge run, investors should review concentrated positions and consider rebalancing if single names have drifted far above their normal portfolio weights. ^[25]

From “AI 1.0” to “AI 2.0”

RBC frames the current phase of the AI boom as “AI 1.0” — a capital‑spending wave focused on building data centers and training models. The next phase, “AI 2.0”, would need to deliver visible productivity and profit gains well beyond the tech sector, spreading benefits to more traditional industries. ^[26]

That shift is also echoed in Madison Investments’ December 2025 monthly update, which notes that:

The S&P 500 gained just 0.25% in November, yet volatility spiked as expectations for a December rate cut swung wildly before settling back toward a cut.
The market broadened beneath the surface, with Health Care and higher‑quality “steady earner” stocks taking the lead while “unbridled enthusiasm for anything AI” cooled. ^[27]

Madison highlights mounting concerns about:

AI leaders moving from cash‑funded spending to heavy debt issuance
Rising chip competition challenging NVIDIA’s earlier dominance
A “show me” phase, where investors want clear financial returns on massive AI infrastructure investments. ^[28]

Competing S&P 500 Forecasts for 2026 and Beyond

With the index already up nearly 17% this year and trading near all‑time highs, Wall Street is sharply divided on what comes next.

Bank of America: Cautious on an “AI air pocket”

A recent Bank of America outlook, highlighted by Business Insider, takes a more conservative view than many peers:

BofA sees only about 4% upside for the S&P 500 through 2026, making it one of the least bullish major banks.
Strategists warn of an “AI air pocket” — a phase where valuations cool and liquidity fades, even if this falls short of a full‑blown bubble.
They argue that market liquidity is “maxed out”, pointing to fewer share buybacks, rising capital expenditure, and a limited runway for further rate cuts.
They also flag a “mountain of AI debt issuance” undertaken before monetization is fully proven, suggesting that a valuation “de‑rating may be warranted in the months ahead.” ^[29]

BofA’s year‑end S&P 500 target of 7,100 for 2026 is still higher than today’s level but well below the more optimistic forecasts from rival firms. ^[30]

Goldman Sachs: Solid but not spectacular long‑term returns

At the other end of the time horizon, Goldman Sachs projects that the S&P 500 can deliver around 6.5% annualized returns over the next decade, a figure that implies respectable gains but nothing like the breakneck returns of the 2010s and early 2020s. ^[31]

Ultra‑bullish scenarios: S&P 10,000 by 2026?

Some independent analysts remain unabashedly bullish. One high‑profile 2026 outlook published on Seeking Alpha argues that the S&P 500 could reach 10,000 by 2026, attributing that surge less to earnings growth and more to the devaluation of fiat currencies and expanded central‑bank balance sheets. ^[32]

That’s very much an outlier view — but it underscores how wide the forecast range has become, from cautious single‑digit gains to hyper‑bullish calls.

Index Reshuffle: CRH, Carvana and Comfort Systems to Join the S&P 500

Beyond price action, December 5 also brought big news for the construction, auto retail and industrial services spaces.

In a press release, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that, effective before the open on Monday, December 22, 2025, the following companies will join the S&P 500 as part of the quarterly rebalance: ^[33]

CRH plc (CRH) – Materials
Carvana (CVNA) – Consumer Discretionary
Comfort Systems USA (FIX) – Industrials

To make room, the index will remove:

LKQ (LKQ) – moving to the S&P SmallCap 600
Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS)
Mohawk Industries (MHK) ^[34]

Why it matters:

Passive flows: S&P 500 index funds and ETFs will need to buy the new entrants and sell the deletions, often creating significant trading volumes and potential short‑term volatility around the effective date.
Sector exposure: The changes slightly boost Materials, Consumer Discretionary and Industrials weightings in the index, while trimming exposure to some more cyclical consumer and materials names that are being shifted down to small‑cap territory. ^[35]

This reshuffle also reflects a broader theme of re‑rating and migration across market‑cap tiers as some former mid‑caps graduate into large‑cap status after outsized share‑price performance.

How the Government Shutdown and Data Backlog Fit In

Friday’s data dump also carried a macro footnote: the longest government shutdown in U.S. history has distorted the economic picture.

Madison Investments points out that:

The shutdown disrupted data collection, causing important releases like the PCE report to arrive late and in clumps.
That delay has heightened uncertainty around the true pace of growth and inflation, even as the job market seems to be softening and inflation remains “sticky.” ^[36]

Combined with evolving tariff policy and a mixed consumer backdrop — where higher‑income households are buoyed by wealth effects while lower‑income households remain under pressure — the result is a high‑noise, low‑clarity environment. ^[37]

Markets, for now, are choosing to look through the noise and focus on the near‑term catalyst: the Fed’s December decision.

What This Means for Investors Watching the S&P 500

Every investor’s situation is different, but several themes stand out from the latest S&P 500 news, forecasts and analyses:

The trend is still up, but the easy money may be behind us
- The index is up nearly 17% year‑to‑date and sits just shy of record levels. ^[38]
- Several major houses (like BofA) are calling for only modest further upside over the next year or two, warning of an “AI air pocket” and stretched liquidity. ^[39]
AI remains central — but the story is evolving
- Mega‑cap AI leaders have massively outperformed, driving a big chunk of S&P 500 gains. ^[40]
- Analysts now emphasize AI 2.0, where productivity gains must show up in actual earnings across more sectors, not just in lofty capex plans. ^[41]
Market breadth is improving, which is usually a healthy sign
- Equal‑weight indices and small caps are closer to their own highs, and sectors like Health Care and high‑quality “steady earners” have gained traction as AI enthusiasm cools a bit. ^[42]
Rate‑cut expectations are doing a lot of heavy lifting
- The market is heavily priced for a quarter‑point Fed cut next week, and more easing into 2026. ^[43]
- Any surprise in Fed messaging — fewer cuts, tougher language on inflation — could trigger volatility.
Index changes will create winners and losers at the margin
- CRH, Carvana and Comfort Systems USA will likely see increased demand from passive funds, while deleting names could face selling pressure as they leave the S&P 500. ^[44]

Bottom Line

On December 5, 2025, the S&P 500 quietly edged higher, closing at 6,870.40 and inching toward a fresh record as investors embraced a familiar story: cooling (but not collapsing) inflation, resilient consumer spending, and an imminent Fed rate cut. ^[45]

Yet under the surface, the picture is more nuanced. The rally still leans heavily on a handful of AI‑linked mega caps even as breadth improves. Strategists are split between cautious calls for single‑digit gains and bold predictions of S&P 10,000. And a historic shutdown has injected more uncertainty into the data just as the Fed prepares its next move. ^[46]

For now, Wall Street seems content to give this bull market the benefit of the doubt — but the Fed’s December meeting, the evolution of the AI earnings story, and the year‑end index reshuffle will be key tests of just how durable this near‑record S&P 500 really is.

References

S&P 500 Near Record High on December 5, 2025 as Fed Rate Cut Bets Rise – Latest News, Forecasts and Analysis