Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) finished Wednesday’s session little changed and stayed essentially flat in early after-hours trading as investors digested a fast-moving corporate drama that’s becoming one of the biggest media stories of 2025: Warner Bros. Discovery’s board formally rejecting Paramount Skydance’s hostile bid and reaffirming support for Netflix’s proposed acquisition. [1]
Netflix stock price after the bell: where NFLX stands tonight
As of early after-hours (4:11 p.m. ET), Netflix shares were quoted at about $94.74, down roughly $0.02 from the regular-session close. [2]
During the regular session, NFLX ended around $94.76 after trading in a wide band of roughly $94.5 to $97.3, with volume around 50 million shares. [3]
That resilience stood out against a broader market pullback: U.S. stocks slid Wednesday, with the S&P 500 down 1.2% and the Nasdaq down 1.8%, reflecting renewed pressure in tech and growth shares. [4]
The main catalyst moving headlines today: Warner’s board chooses Netflix’s deal over Paramount’s hostile bid
The biggest NFLX-linked development Wednesday wasn’t a Netflix earnings update — it was the next escalation in the Warner Bros. Discovery takeover contest.
Warner Bros. Discovery’s board urged shareholders to reject Paramount Skydance’s offer and stick with the previously announced Netflix transaction, calling Paramount’s proposal “illusory” and criticizing the financing structure and risks. [5]
Key points investors are focusing on tonight:
- Two rival offers, two very different structures. Reports described Netflix’s offer as a cash-and-stock proposal, while Paramount Skydance’s approach has been framed as a hostile, all-cash tender. [6]
- The decision raises the odds Netflix stays in the driver’s seat — but it doesn’t end the story. Analysts cited by Reuters expect an intense shareholder battle to play out as Paramount considers whether to improve its offer and Warner defends its recommendation. [7]
- Timing matters. The process extends well beyond tomorrow’s open. Reuters reported that a shareholder vote on the Netflix deal is anticipated in spring or early summer 2026, while the Paramount tender timeline remains a nearer-term pressure point on headlines. [8]
For Netflix shareholders, this matters because the market is trying to price two things at once: (1) the strategic upside of potentially pairing Netflix with major studio/streaming assets, and (2) the regulatory, financing, and integration risk that comes with a mega-deal in a politically sensitive industry. [9]
Netflix’s message tonight: financing certainty, regulators already engaged, 12–18 month timeline
In statements carried Wednesday, Netflix emphasized that it believes its structure offers cleaner execution and fewer financing complications.
Netflix said it expects to close the transaction in 12–18 months, noted it has submitted its HSR filing, and said it is engaging with competition authorities including the U.S. DOJ and the EU Commission. Netflix also highlighted that its financing structure is not subject to CFIUS review and pointed to a $5.8 billion reverse termination fee as a signal of confidence in obtaining regulatory approvals. [10]
That framing is important for Thursday because it suggests Netflix is trying to shift the debate away from “who bids higher” and toward “who can actually close.”
But the market is also aware the regulatory path could still be complicated. Reuters reported that analysts see potential for significant scrutiny and, depending on regulators’ posture, possible remedies could become part of the discussion. [11]
Reuters analysis: why Netflix could still feel pressure to improve terms
A key risk for NFLX holders is that “winning” can get expensive.
Reuters Breakingviews highlighted the possibility that Netflix’s leadership could be pressured to sweeten its offer, even as Paramount’s side faces constraints tied to its financing and market conditions. [12]
Translation for investors watching after-hours tonight: tomorrow’s price action may be less about Netflix’s core streaming fundamentals and more about M&A chess moves — any leak, filing, or public comment can move sentiment quickly.
Other Netflix headlines today: gaming expansion and a Barstool video podcast deal
While the Warner/Paramount situation dominated market chatter, Netflix also released other news Wednesday that reinforces a broader strategic theme: expanding beyond “just TV and film” into adjacent engagement formats.
Netflix and FIFA: a World Cup-linked soccer game for 2026
Netflix announced it will release a soccer simulation game timed to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, developed by Delphi Interactive in association with FIFA — another step in Netflix’s push into games. [13]
FIFA’s own release described the partnership and included comments from Netflix’s games leadership about bringing the experience to fans through Netflix Games. [14]
Investors typically view gaming initiatives through two lenses:
- Bull case: more engagement, retention, and optionality — especially if Netflix can link games to major entertainment events and franchises. [15]
- Bear case: execution risk and uncertain economics (games cost money; it’s not always clear they drive subscriber growth).
Netflix + Barstool Sports: exclusive video podcasts (U.S. launch expected in early 2026)
Netflix also confirmed an exclusive video partnership with Barstool Sports covering video episodes of Pardon My Take, The Ryen Russillo Podcast, and Spittin’ Chiclets. Netflix said audio will remain available on major podcast platforms, while video will stream exclusively on Netflix when the shows launch on the service in early 2026 (U.S. first, more markets later). [16]
Business Insider characterized this as part of Netflix’s effort to compete more directly with YouTube in video-led formats and to broaden its content mix beyond traditional series and films. [17]
For tomorrow’s open, the practical takeaway is that these announcements add to the narrative that Netflix is building a wider “engagement bundle” — but the stock’s near-term direction is still likely to be dominated by the Warner deal headlines and macro data.
Analyst forecasts tonight: where Wall Street’s targets cluster
Even with today’s volatility and deal uncertainty, the sell-side consensus remains constructive in many tracking models.
MarketScreener’s consensus snapshot lists a mean rating of “Outperform” with an average target price around $126.98, based on 43 analysts, with targets ranging from roughly $77 (low) to $152.50 (high). [18]
Two important caveats for readers heading into Thursday:
- Targets move slower than headlines. If the Warner deal thesis changes (price changes, remedies required, timeline shifts), targets can lag and then get revised quickly.
- The spread between low and high targets is wide, which signals unusually high uncertainty — consistent with a stock trading under a large M&A and regulatory narrative.
What to know before the market opens Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025
Thursday morning brings macro catalysts that can easily overwhelm single-stock news — especially for large-cap growth names like Netflix.
1) U.S. CPI is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET — and this one is unusual
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule shows the Consumer Price Index for November 2025 is scheduled for Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025 at 8:30 a.m. ET. [19]
BLS also noted the CPI release was affected by the 2025 lapse in appropriations, including the fact that some month-to-month comparisons will be limited because October CPI data could not be collected retroactively. [20]
MarketWatch also flagged the stakes for this CPI print, noting inflation dynamics have been complicated and the report could reshape rate expectations. [21]
Why this matters for NFLX tomorrow:
- If CPI runs hot, bond yields can rise, and rate-sensitive growth stocks often face pressure.
- If CPI is cooler than feared, it can support a relief rally — especially after a rough stretch for broader tech. [22]
2) Initial jobless claims and Philly Fed manufacturing data are also on the morning docket
MarketWatch’s calendar lists initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey among key Thursday morning releases (8:30 a.m. ET). [23]
These reports can move index futures and “risk appetite” — which, in turn, can move Netflix even if there’s no new company-specific headline.
3) “Inflation risk” is still the market’s central theme right now
Reuters’ “Morning Bid” emphasized inflation concerns as a primary factor weighing on Wall Street’s typical year-end rally dynamic, with traders looking to Thursday’s inflation data as a potential disruptor. [24]
In practice, that means Thursday’s opening tone for NFLX may be determined as much by macro prints and yields as by streaming-related news.
A quick NFLX checklist for Thursday’s open
Here’s what to watch between now and the opening bell:
- After-hours and premarket headlines on the Warner/Paramount battle: any filing, new bid talk, or regulator commentary can move NFLX quickly. [25]
- CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET and immediate bond-market reaction — this can set the direction for tech and communication services. [26]
- Jobless claims / Philly Fed as secondary macro drivers. [27]
- Narrative follow-through on Netflix’s non-streaming initiatives (games + video podcasts). These likely won’t drive tomorrow’s first move, but they add to the longer-term positioning story investors are debating. [28]
Bottom line: NFLX is steady after-hours, but tomorrow’s risk is headline + macro
Netflix stock is essentially unchanged after the bell on Dec. 17, 2025 — but the setup into Thursday is not “quiet.” NFLX is trading in the crosscurrents of (1) high-stakes M&A headlines tied to Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount, and (2) market-wide sensitivity to inflation and rates with a BLS CPI release due before the opening bell. [29]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. apnews.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.investopedia.com, 10. www.prnewswire.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. inside.fifa.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.netflix.com, 17. www.businessinsider.com, 18. www.marketscreener.com, 19. www.bls.gov, 20. www.bls.gov, 21. www.marketwatch.com, 22. apnews.com, 23. www.marketwatch.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.bls.gov, 27. www.marketwatch.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. stockanalysis.com
