NEW YORK, January 3, 2026, 04:57 ET
OPEC+ is expected to keep oil output steady through March when eight key members meet on Sunday, three delegates said. The alliance, which pumps about half the world’s crude, raised output targets by about 2.9 million barrels per day from April to December and then paused further hikes for the first quarter. 1
The decision matters because even small shifts in supply can move benchmark crude prices that feed into transport costs, inflation and energy-company cash flow. Traders are looking for a clearer floor after a year in which surplus supply concerns dominated sentiment.
Oil prices fell nearly 20% in 2025, their biggest annual drop since 2020, and Brent notched a third straight yearly decline, the Guardian reported. Brent, the international benchmark, ended the year at $60.85 a barrel after dipping below $60 in December for the first time in almost five years; U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled at $57.42. The International Energy Agency expects supply to outstrip demand by about 3.8 million barrels per day in 2026, and analysts at BNP Paribas, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have flagged risks of prices slipping into the $50s. 2
On Friday, Brent futures closed down 10 cents at $60.75 and WTI fell 10 cents to $57.32. “Oil prices are locked in this long-term trading range,” said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group. Investors weighed oversupply against risks including Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and new U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil firms. 3
OPEC+ is shorthand for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia. The group uses output targets — effectively production ceilings — to manage supply and try to avoid sharp price swings.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two of OPEC’s biggest producers, head into the meeting amid a widening rift over Yemen. The UAE said on Saturday it was deeply concerned by escalation after Saudi-backed forces moved into areas seized last month by UAE-backed southern separatists seeking independence. 4
The standoff has raised questions about how easily the producer alliance can keep politics from spilling into oil policy. OPEC+ has generally been most effective when it can present a unified signal to the market.
For consumers, lower crude prices can translate into cheaper gasoline and diesel, though the pass-through can lag and varies by region and taxes. For producers, prices in the $50s and low $60s can tighten budgets and sharpen competition for market share.
In its latest short-term outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast Brent would average $55 a barrel in the first quarter of 2026 and stay near that level for the rest of the year as global inventories rise. The agency said OPEC+ policy and continued stockpiling by China could help limit deeper declines. 5
