New York, Feb 16, 2026, 12:36 EST — Market closed.
- U.S. cash stocks and Treasuries are shut for Presidents Day; stock index futures are still trading.
- S&P 500 futures were up about 0.1%, holding near 6,853, after a volatile week marked by AI-led sector swings.
- Investors’ focus turns to late-week U.S. GDP and inflation readings, plus Walmart results as a read on consumers.
U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for the Presidents Day holiday, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures up 0.1% and 0.2% in thin trading. S&P 500 futures hovered around 6,853.
The pause comes with investors bracing for a shortened week packed with catalysts: Walmart earnings, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — and an advance reading on fourth-quarter GDP. “It’s all this whack-a-mole game,” Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth, said of AI-driven narratives hitting different industries. Reuters
The last cash session on Friday ended with the Dow up 0.10% at 49,500.93 and the S&P 500 up 0.05% at 6,836.17, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.22% to 22,546.67. Traders had leaned on cooler January inflation to nudge up June rate-cut odds, but “large cap tech stocks continue to be an anchor,” said Michael James, managing director at Rosenblatt Securities. Reuters
AI spending worries have also left a mark on the biggest tech names this year, as investors question whether heavy capital expenditure will pay off quickly enough. Microsoft shares are down about 17% year-to-date, while Amazon has fallen nearly 14%, Reuters reported, as the market shifts from long-horizon AI promises to nearer-term earnings visibility.
Thin holiday liquidity showed up across assets, with gold sliding more than 1% on Monday as the dollar firmed and U.S. markets stayed shut. “Gold is range-trading around $5,000/oz in a week with lower liquidity due to holidays,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. Reuters
On the U.S. economic calendar, the Bureau of Economic Analysis lists a Thursday release of the U.S. international trade report for December, followed Friday by the advance estimate of fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 GDP at 8:30 a.m. ET. The same time slot also carries December personal income and outlays, which includes the PCE inflation figures.
Also on Friday, the University of Michigan is set to publish its final February consumer sentiment reading at 10 a.m. ET, a closely watched gauge for household confidence and inflation expectations.
Some calendar uncertainty persists after recent disruptions, with the Census Bureau’s retail trade release schedule listing the January 2026 advance monthly retail trade report as “to be announced.” The schedule shows the December 2025 report was released on Feb. 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Census.gov
But the downside risk for stocks is straightforward: if growth and PCE inflation come in hot, traders could push rate-cut expectations further out, reviving pressure on the rate-sensitive parts of the market. Separately, AI disruption fears that started in software have already spread to other pockets seen as vulnerable to automation, broadening the scope of selloffs.
Energy is another wild card. Brent crude rose 41 cents to $68.16 a barrel and U.S. WTI gained 43 cents to $63.32 in subdued trade ahead of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, Reuters reported.
When Wall Street reopens on Tuesday, investors will spend the week parsing whether the consumer is holding up and whether inflation is cooling fast enough to keep rate cuts on the table. The next hard tests land on Friday with U.S. GDP and the personal spending and inflation data, alongside the Michigan sentiment read.
