Sydney, February 17, 2026, 16:59 AEDT — Trading after the bell.
- NAB shares slipped after hours, with rate expectations still hanging in the air following new RBA minutes.
- NAB’s first-quarter trading update lands Wednesday, drawing investor attention.
National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX:NAB) dropped 0.44% to A$45.34 on Tuesday, with the stock swinging from A$45.26 up to A$45.81 over the session. Volume came in around 3.16 million shares.
Investors digested the Reserve Bank of Australia’s signal that rate direction remains uncertain. According to minutes, policymakers weren’t settled on “any particular path for the cash rate” after this month’s 25 basis point hike to 3.85%. Market bets now tilt toward another increase in May. Reuters
Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis took the minutes as further support for her expectation that “the next increase in the cash rate is coming in May, not March.” This keeps the focus on the duration of higher funding costs, and the pace at which demand slows. Westpaciq
The broader market managed to stay afloat, though volumes were light. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.24% during a holiday-thinned Asian session as investors weighed geopolitical tensions along with shifts in oil prices.
NAB shareholders won’t have to wait long for fresh numbers—the bank has its first-quarter trading update lined up for Feb. 18, per its financial calendar.
IG’s Tony Sycamore picked up on the hawkish tone in the RBA minutes, saying they underline the point that “interest rates may need to stay higher for longer.” He also pointed to NAB, which is set to deliver a key update Wednesday. IG
Investors tend to watch the update closely for any early read on net interest margin — that crucial gap between what a bank makes on loans and pays out on deposits and funding. Costs and the first signs of credit trends also get scrutiny. Sometimes, subtle shifts here end up carrying more weight than the headline profit figure.
Still, there’s a clear risk on the table. Should NAB flag stiffer deposit competition—or if credit losses begin edging higher in its business and household portfolios—the stock could get hit fast by the market.
There’s another wild card, one beyond the company itself. Bank valuations can react sharply to even small changes in rate expectations—just watch what happens if bond yields or the Australian dollar start moving with the latest data.
