NEW YORK, March 10, 2026, 14:26 EDT
Oil tumbled over 13% Tuesday, with prices reversing sharply after U.S. President Donald Trump commented the Iran conflict could wrap up soon—knocking down those supply fears that had sent crude spiking just the day before. As of 12:58 p.m. EDT, Brent slid $12.46 to $86.50 a barrel; U.S. West Texas Intermediate was off $12.24 at $82.53. “Short-lived war” chatter helped take the edge off, said DBS Bank’s Suvro Sarkar. Reuters
It’s a live issue now: Monday’s price spike amplified inflation fears and sparked talk of emergency stock draws. Brent ended the session at $98.96, having briefly surged to $119.50 after Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members pulled back on supply. With traders zeroed in on the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow Gulf chokepoint where about a fifth of global oil and LNG moves—market nerves stayed tight.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration isn’t calling the shock finished just yet. Brent, the agency said, is likely to hold above $95 a barrel for the next two months, then drop below $80 in Q3. For 2026, the EIA bumped its Brent forecast to $79, lifted its U.S. gasoline estimate to $3.34 a gallon, and now expects U.S. crude output to average 13.6 million bpd this year.
Trump’s newest comments got plenty of traction in the markets, while Tehran showed no signs of softening its stance. For John Belton at Gabelli Funds, the key issue now is whether pricier oil “leak[s] into inflation expectations” and puts a dent in optimism about easing price pressures. Reuters
No action from policy makers for now. G7 energy ministers opted against tapping strategic oil reserves, choosing instead to direct the International Energy Agency to outline what a stock release might look like. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol emphasized that members plan to review “security of supply and market conditions” before any move. Reuters
But any pullback might not last. The Pentagon said Tuesday marked the heaviest day of strikes yet. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards threatened that if attacks persist, no oil will leave the Middle East. Over at Saudi Aramco, Chief Executive Amin Nasser warned that a drawn-out Hormuz disruption could spell “catastrophic consequences” for oil markets and the broader economy. Reuters
Regional producers are scaling back. Aramco is already curbing output at two fields. Over in Abu Dhabi, ADNOC is pulling back offshore production. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation has gone further, slashing supply and invoking force majeure—allowing them to halt deliveries after serious disruptions. Consultancy IIR estimates about 1.9 million bpd of refining capacity is currently offline across Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
Wood Mackenzie reports that roughly 15 million bpd of Gulf oil and product supply is already off the market due to war, and warns Brent prices may reach $150 in the next few weeks if the shutdown persists. The firm also noted that even a quick end to the conflict wouldn’t mean an immediate return of supply.
