New York, April 29, 2026, 10:57 EDT
Alphabet will post first-quarter numbers after the U.S. market closes on Wednesday. Investors want to see whether the hefty tech investment—driven by Google’s Gemini AI ambitions and a surging cloud business—holds up. The earnings call is set for 4:30 p.m. Eastern, following the release on the investor website.
The reason this is moving the needle shows in the price: Alphabet stock climbed in late-morning New York hours, with GOOG printing $351.86 and GOOGL at $354.05. The Google parent hovered just shy of all-time highs ahead of a report that could shake up expectations across the AI sector.
The report hits during a packed stretch for the major cloud players—Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Alphabet—with all four set to brief Wall Street on AI infrastructure demand. “From a market perspective, they still are the straw that stirs the drinks,” Horizon Investment Services CEO Chuck Carlson told Reuters. Reuters
Wall Street’s expecting robust growth, but earnings aren’t looking straightforward. Barron’s quotes analysts who see Alphabet revenue hitting around $107 billion, a jump of 19%. Still, they’re penciling in earnings per share at $2.63, down from last year—thanks to a big non-cash gain from venture investments in the prior-year period.
The hotter issue is spending. Back in February, Alphabet told investors it was looking at 2026 capital expenditures in the $175 billion to $185 billion range, targeting long-term assets like servers and data centers, with spending set to accelerate as the year unfolds. The company also reported that Gemini had surpassed 750 million monthly active users, and Google Cloud’s backlog shot up, more than doubling year over year to $240 billion by the end of the fourth quarter.
Google wants investors to see a link between its spending and sales, rather than just pouring cash into model development. During its cloud conference this month, the company spotlighted AI agents — digital assistants that handle planning and execution — as a core part of its enterprise offerings. Google Cloud chief Thomas Kurian put it bluntly: “the experimental phase is behind us.” Reuters
Bulls point to Alphabet firing on all cylinders: Search ads, YouTube, Cloud, and now Gemini in the mix. YR Research, writing for Seeking Alpha, called the first quarter an “inflection,” suggesting the market isn’t fully pricing in just how big Alphabet’s AI prospects are—even after the stock’s strong climb. Seeking Alpha
Analyst sentiment heading into the report leans positive, though there’s no clear consensus. Needham’s Laura Martin stays bullish, keeping a Buy call and a $400 price target, according to Benzinga. BMO Capital’s Brian Pitz is a bit more aggressive—he’s got an Outperform rating and a $410 target. Rosenblatt’s Barton Crockett, on the other hand, is more reserved, sticking with Neutral and a $357 target.
The competitive angle is key here. According to Reuters, Google Cloud revenue is forecast to jump 50.1% for the March quarter, outpacing the 40% projected for Microsoft Azure and 25% for Amazon Web Services. That makes the cloud segment the sharpest gauge yet of how much AI spending is turning into actual sales.
Margins are the big question mark. Google Cloud’s margin estimates for the quarter, according to S&P Global’s Melissa Otto, go anywhere from 11.6% up to 34%. That spread underlines just how unclear the cost picture is for running AI. S&P Global also flagged that consensus puts Alphabet’s 2026 capex at $179.3 billion—over five times higher than what it spent in 2023.
A revenue beat won’t end the debate. Investors want to know if Alphabet is sticking to that February spending range, how much margin gets clipped by depreciation and power bills, and if Gemini brings in fresh dollars for Search and Cloud—or just props up Google’s legacy lines.
