New York, May 12, 2026, 12:06 EDT
- SoFi shares hovered around $15.75 halfway through the session, off 51 cents from the previous close. Truist lowered its price target to $17 from $20 while maintaining a Hold rating.
- This selloff has little to do with headline growth. SoFi’s Q1 numbers landed above water, with adjusted net revenue hitting a record $1.1 billion, loan originations shooting up to $12.2 billion—a new high—and total membership reaching 14.7 million.
- Durability is the question here. Investors want to see if SoFi’s fee, loan-platform, and tech operations really justify a premium price tag while chances of rate cuts remain slim.
SoFi Technologies lost ground on Tuesday, reversing some of Monday’s gains. The move followed a new target cut from Truist that grabbed investor attention, overshadowing SoFi’s latest acquisition headlines. Shares kicked off at $16.04, briefly reached $16.31, but then slipped to a session low of $15.63. By late morning, the stock hovered around $15.75.
Here’s what sparked the drop: Truist’s Matthew Coad slashed the price target to $17, flagging weaker sales forecasts for SoFi’s loan platform and dialing down his outlook for Galileo and Technisys. That hit a nerve with investors. SoFi’s headline numbers are strong, but Wall Street isn’t convinced the growth runs deep enough for a premium valuation.
The chart tells the story. Monday brought the PrimaryBid deal, offering a look at SoFi beyond just lending. But on Tuesday, the stock couldn’t hold above $16.30—sellers kept up the pressure after earnings. Upstart and LendingClub slipped too, and Robinhood dropped harder; the weakness wasn’t limited to SoFi, fintech names broadly struggled.
PrimaryBid’s role remains key here. SoFi is set to pick up most of the British fintech’s assets, adding more tech muscle for retail IPO access and similar deals. Directed share platforms—these let issuers reserve shares for employees, customers, or retail investors—were on SoFi’s menu already, thanks to its U.S. partnership with PrimaryBid.
The real story centers on earnings. CEO Anthony Noto called the first quarter a “remarkable start”—and the figures back him up: adjusted net revenue jumped 41% to $1.1 billion, while adjusted EBITDA surged 62% to $340 million. Membership climbed 35% compared to a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA, here, is measured before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, with some items excluded. Q4 Capital
Bulls point to SoFi’s growth machine still running. Management stuck to its outlook for the year: adjusted net revenue of around $4.655 billion, adjusted EBITDA at about $1.6 billion, and roughly 60 cents in adjusted EPS. Loan originations broke records at $12.2 billion, spanning personal, student, and home loans. Net interest income—what’s left after funding costs—remained solid.
The bear argument zeros in on SoFi’s soft spots—precisely the units the company has yet to validate. Net revenue from the technology platform slumped 27% in Q1, landing at $75.1 million. That drop followed a full departure by a major client. Truist warned about more conservative assumptions for future loan-platform sales. In this segment, SoFi originates loans for others rather than booking everything itself, but if outside buyers pull back, those fees can vanish fast.
Management batted away concerns over that risk on the earnings call. CFO Chris Lapointe described capital-partner demand as “extremely robust” and highlighted three fresh partnerships, together bringing in about $3.6 billion in commitments over the past two years. Noto added that originations hit records across personal loans, student-loan refinancing, and home loans. Q4 Capital
Rates are muddying the picture. April’s CPI showed 3.8% headline inflation for the year and 2.8% on the core, and Reuters reported the numbers firmed up views that the Fed will stand pat on rates for now. Over at Polymarket, traders are pricing in a 98% chance of no rate move in June; Kalshi’s Fed page has “Fed maintains rate” trading in the 96%–97% range. Notably, Kalshi also places the odds of zero cuts in 2026 at 54.3%. Bureau of Labor Statistics
For SoFi, the picture isn’t straightforward. Higher rates help boost loan yields and widen net interest margins, but they also dampen refinancing activity and keep the brakes on growth names that are sensitive to credit conditions. The company’s Q2 guidance already factors in no rate cuts in 2026, so there’s no element of surprise getting priced in—investors just want to know how much room is left if rates stay stuck.
Competitive forces aren’t pulling in just one direction. Affirm leans heavily on buy-now-pay-later, Upstart’s fortunes swing with loan origination, LendingClub’s tied to digital banking and credit, and Robinhood’s business rides on trading volumes. SoFi straddles all of these—investors like the breadth, the whole-platform pitch, but that breadth also leaves it vulnerable when the market turns risk-averse on fintech. One hit, but it can come from multiple angles.
Valuation rounds out the picture here. SoFi trades at a P/E of about 35 at midday—a figure that doesn’t look wild for a profitable, growing fintech, but doesn’t offer much leeway if the company takes its time delivering results. Shares are already trading well under the 52-week high of $32.73.
Here’s what matters next: Q2 loan-platform sales, tech-platform revenue, credit losses, and whether PrimaryBid brings tangible metrics instead of more chatter. Bulls still have member growth on their side—a solid argument. But bears aren’t going away; this stock has to show sharp execution outside lending, and Tuesday’s action suggests the market isn’t ready to give it the benefit of the doubt.
