NEW YORK, June 22, 2026, 5:02 a.m. ET
- Stocks in the U.S. moved off weekend jitters as diplomacy between the U.S. and Iran in Switzerland advanced and oil prices gave up earlier gains.
- AI stocks pushed higher again. SK Hynix passed Samsung to become South Korea’s biggest listed company, with memory chips driving the day’s main move.
- Micron is up next with results set for Wednesday, and the May PCE inflation data follows on Thursday.
Oil slid on Monday as progress in U.S.-Iran talks hit prices, but AI stocks stayed strong with fresh money coming in. U.S. stock futures turned higher after early losses, with investors watching for signs out of Tehran and Washington, according to Investing.com. Brent crude traded close to $80 a barrel after Iran said it got waivers for oil and petrochemical exports, easing concerns about supply, Reuters reported. President Donald Trump also took a less tough line on Anthropic.
Markets shifted after a strained weekend. Iran said talks in Switzerland made “major progress.” Mediators Qatar and Pakistan said both sides set a 60-day plan for a final deal. Vice President JD Vance put it this way: “Can we turn over a new leaf?” The early market response: maybe—but cautious, hedges in place. The Guardian
Oil led the move, as it was the most exposed to any negative headlines. Brent topped $82.30 early after Trump threatened more strikes and Tehran shut the Strait of Hormuz again. By 0815 GMT, Brent had slipped 61 cents to $79.96, Reuters reported. “Progress between the U.S. and Iran in the talks in Switzerland is likely the main factor weighing on oil prices today,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Reuters
Brent gives back more of its war premium, but crude still trades above prewar levels
Here is the overlooked calculation: taking AP’s reference for Brent around $70 before the war, with Reuters’ peak at $126.41 in May, moving back toward $80 Monday means about 82% of the May war-premium spike has been erased. But crude keeps about a $10-a-barrel premium over prewar prices. That’s the key market takeaway. Traders are not betting on peace, just on a lower chance of an immediate supply shock.
Stocks moved unevenly before the bell. SPY added roughly 0.84% and QQQ gained about 2.37%. Nvidia was up about 2.85%. DIA edged a bit lower. That gap mattered. Investors weren’t buying it all—just the names and ETFs with the tightest AI links.
Seoul sent the strongest message. SK Hynix finished up 5.6%, with market cap hitting 2,080.4 trillion won (about $1.35 trillion), moving past Samsung Electronics. Samsung closed at 2,066.7 trillion won not counting preferred shares. The difference was just 13.7 trillion won — around $8.9 billion by Reuters’ exchange rate — which is under 1% of SK Hynix’s value. But the shift carried weight. AI memory briefly took the top spot over Korea’s tech giant.
High-bandwidth memory, or HBM, is the bottleneck feeding AI chips. Reuters said SK Hynix shipped HBM to Nvidia and Google, taking 61% of the global market in 2025. Samsung had 17%, Micron was at 21%. “The emergence of customised AI memory fundamentally changed the industry’s economics,” Meritz Securities senior analyst Kim Sunwoo told Reuters. Reuters
Anthropic made headlines again. Trump told Axios, via iTnews, that he doesn’t see Anthropic as a national security risk anymore after suggesting last week he might have. Pressed on Anthropic and CEO Dario Amodei, Trump said, “Well, not now, but a week ago, maybe.” He also mentioned Amodei reacted “very quickly” and “responsibly” to the export-control order from the administration, though Trump didn’t close the door on Defense Production Act powers. iTnews
Monday’s trade is built on two shaky foundations. Diplomatic progress hangs on Lebanon, Hormuz shipping, and how sanctions get enforced. AI stocks still face possible export curbs, valuation hits, and unpredictable policy. “Still a long way to go” before a long-term deal, Susannah Streeter at Wealth Club told Reuters. Neil Newman at Astris Advisory Japan told AP the Japanese market is “probably getting a little stretched.” For now, lower oil helps central banks and equity traders. Reuters
Having some breathing room doesn’t mean an all-clear. Reuters reported that Treasury markets still price a 75% chance the Fed raises rates by September, after last week’s hawkish tone. Fed funds futures are showing about 38 basis points of tightening by the end of the year. The Bureau of Economic Analysis says the next PCE price index is due out June 25. April’s headline PCE inflation was 3.8% year over year.
Now traders are watching Boise and Washington, not just Switzerland. Micron will post its fiscal Q3 numbers on June 24 at 2:30 p.m. Mountain time. Reuters calls the Micron report a key test for continued surprise AI spending and memory-chip profit gains. If Micron sticks to the HBM shortage script and Thursday’s PCE data doesn’t light up new rate worries, Monday’s choppy session could spill into a broader rally. If either misses, the market has to figure out if it was betting on peace, AI, or just chasing a quick win.
This article is for information only and doesn’t offer financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. All markets carry risk, with losses of principal possible. Readers should do their own research and talk to a qualified financial adviser before making any investment choices.
