NEW YORK, June 28, 2026, 17:05 EDT
- Tesla, Inc. NASDAQ:TSLA finished Friday at $379.71, a gain of 1.22% for the day. Shares are still off 5.2% from last week’s close.
- Tesla’s own Q2 consensus for deliveries comes in at 406,024 cars. Model 3/Y are seen driving all the quarter-to-quarter change. “All other models” are projected to drop. Tesla Investor Relations
- Trading will be shortened this week. The NYSE is closed Friday, July 3, for Independence Day.
Nasdaq trades Monday to Friday, 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Tesla’s latest price is from Friday’s session. U.S. markets will skip a day next week for the July 3 holiday.
The next hurdle for Tesla is more than just hitting 400,000 deliveries in Q2. The question is whether the market keeps Tesla’s $1.43 trillion valuation when Street forecasts see 2026 vehicle numbers barely above 2025 but energy storage volumes rising faster. Barron’s puts Tesla’s market cap at $1.43 trillion with a trailing P/E of 346.89.
Here’s how the data stacked up Friday:
| Instrument | Friday close | Friday move | Week move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA | $379.71 | up 1.22% | down 5.2% from June 18 close |
| Nasdaq Composite (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) | 25,297.62 | fell 0.24% | off 4.7% for the week |
| S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) | 7,353.95 | slipped 0.05% | dropped 2.05% over the week |
Tesla fell about as much as the Nasdaq, but for a different reason. Nasdaq’s drop came as chip names linked to AI got sold down again. For Tesla, it’s mostly about deliveries, with the next bounce depending on Model 3 and Model Y numbers, not growth across its whole lineup.
Tesla put out its Q2 consensus on June 26, using numbers from 22 sell-side estimates. The table lines up Tesla’s actual results from Q1 with those Q2 consensus numbers, and shows 2026 full-year consensus next to actuals for 2025.
| Line item | Q1 2026 actual | Q2 2026 consensus | 2026 consensus vs 2025 actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model 3/Y deliveries | 341,893 | 392,625 | +0.6% |
| All other model deliveries | 16,130 | 12,978 | +10.4% |
| Total deliveries | 358,023 | 406,024 | +1.1% |
| Energy storage deployments | 8.8 GWh | 13.8 GWh | +24.0% |
The Q2 delivery increase is 48,001 vehicles over Q1. Model 3/Y added 50,732, but the rest of the lineup took away 3,152. That’s the problem for the stock: headline growth, but numbers outside the Model 3/Y are slipping.
Full-year consensus shows little change. Tesla delivered 1,636,129 vehicles in 2025, and analysts see 1,654,808 for 2026. That’s up just 18,679 cars, or 1.1%. Energy storage goes the other way: Tesla deployed 46.7 GWh in 2025, with the 2026 estimate at 57.9 GWh.
This makes a difference for price. With a $1.43 trillion market cap, Tesla is at around $864,000 per vehicle based on 2026 delivery estimates. That’s far from a typical auto sector multiple. The stock relies on buyers sticking around for the storage, autonomy, and robotics story, not just car sales.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. NYSE:JPM analysts, led by Rajat Gupta, upgraded Tesla to neutral earlier this month. They said valuation now leans on autonomous driving and robotics, not short-term profits. The team called Tesla’s hardware-software mix “somewhat under-appreciated and misunderstood.” JPMorgan bumped its price target on the stock to $475 from $145. Reuters
Tech stocks overall didn’t offer much support. “It’s too early to say a big tech correction is starting,” David Stubbs, chief investment strategist at AlphaCore Wealth Advisory, told Reuters on Friday. Still, he said investors are sticking with concerns over AI profits and capital spending. Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth, pointed to supply issues, saying the latest pressure came from “memory.” Reuters
Tesla’s autonomy timing is still up for debate. CEO Elon Musk told investors in April the “limiting factor for expansion is really rigorous validation.” Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein told Reuters Tesla was being careful since “the stakes are very high.” CFRA’s Garrett Nelson said, “People who have been following the story for years know that things happen on Elon time.” Reuters
Tesla plans to boost output at its Berlin factory by 20% to 7,500 units a week starting in October and will add 1,000 hires. The higher Model Y volumes may help longer term, but the ramp comes too late to shift Q2 delivery numbers.
The setup for the week is clear: four normal U.S. sessions, quarter ends Tuesday, and Tesla’s Q2 production and delivery numbers are next up on its IR calendar.
