NEW YORK, July 5, 2026, 11:06 EDT
- U.S. markets are closed for the long weekend, with Nasdaq set to reopen Monday after the July 3 Independence Day break.
- Tesla closed at $393.45 in the last regular session, sliding 7.5%, but shares were still up roughly 3.6% from the previous Friday’s close.
- Tesla’s gap between production and deliveries shifted by 78,731 vehicles from the first to the second quarter.
- The company reports Q2 earnings on July 22. Investors will be looking to see if the delivery beat hurt margins.
U.S. markets were closed Friday for the Independence Day break and will stay shut on Sunday. That gives Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA holders the weekend to digest the stock’s sudden turnaround before Monday’s session. Both the Nasdaq and NYSE were closed on July 3—since July 4 was a Saturday this year in 2026.
Tesla finished Thursday at $393.45, dropping 7.5% after its delivery numbers topped analyst estimates by a lot. Shares had climbed earlier—starting at $379.71 on June 26 and ending up 3.6% higher by Thursday’s close, according to Investing.com data.
The key for investors isn’t just Tesla’s sales count, but whether the gains came from real demand or just from old inventory. Tesla built 408,386 cars and shipped 358,023 in Q1, so production was 50,363 units over deliveries. In Q2, output was 451,758, but deliveries hit 480,126—a drawdown of 28,368 vehicles. That swings the gap between production and deliveries by 78,731 units. SEC
| Tesla quarterly data | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production | 408,386 | 451,758 | up 43,372 |
| Deliveries | 358,023 | 480,126 | gain of 122,103 |
| Production minus deliveries | plus 50,363 | minus 28,368 | down 78,731 |
| Energy storage deployments | 8.8 GWh | 13.5 GWh | up 4.7 GWh |
The 78,731-unit swing stands out because it’s bigger than Tesla’s 74,102-vehicle beat versus its own consensus of 406,024 deliveries. Tesla said investors shouldn’t look only at deliveries and storage deployments each quarter, since net income and cash flow also depend on factors like average selling price, cost of sales, foreign exchange, and more. Tesla Investor Relations
Seth Goldstein, a senior equity analyst at Morningstar, said Europe is the “key driver” for Tesla right now and added it would be “hard to see a decline” for the full year after these numbers. Sam Fiorani, AutoForecast Solutions VP, said Tesla’s mix of pricing and products is helping buyers look past worries over Elon Musk himself. Reuters
| Q2 item | Actual | Tesla-compiled consensus | Beat/(miss) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model 3/Y deliveries | 467,762 | 392,625 | +75,137 |
| Other model deliveries | 12,364 | 12,978 | -614 |
| Total deliveries | 480,126 | 406,024 | +74,102 |
| Energy storage | 13.5 GWh | 13.8 GWh | -0.3 GWh |
Tesla’s delivery mix puts more focus on the July 22 earnings than on just the top-line unit number. The delivery beat over consensus came entirely from Model 3 and Model Y volumes; the “other models” group missed estimates. Storage deployments jumped from Q1 but came in just under the consensus figure collected by the company. Tesla Investor Relations Tesla Investor Relations
Markets were mixed. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.80% to 25,832.67 on Thursday, while the S&P 500 closed nearly unchanged at 7,483.24. The Dow ended up 1.14% at 52,900.07. Tesla shares fell, Reuters said, despite deliveries beating estimates.
| Last regular session | Close | Session move | Week move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA | $393.45 | fell 7.5% | up 3.6% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,832.67 | off 0.80% | gained 2.1% |
| S&P 500 | 7,483.24 | about flat | rose 1.8% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,900.07 | added 1.14% | advanced 2.0% |
Autonomy moved into focus for the week ahead. Tesla announced Friday that its robotaxi service is now live in Miami. This follows an unsupervised debut in Austin in June and previous plans for Dallas and Houston. Waymo, the Alphabet Inc. NASDAQ:GOOGL self-driving arm, and Zoox, part of Amazon.com, Inc. NASDAQ:AMZN, are also working to grow their robotaxi operations.
Morningstar bumped its fair value on Tesla to $450 from $425 following the Q2 delivery numbers. Still, Goldstein said investors should “wait for a larger margin of safety” before stepping in. Tesla plans to post its full Q2 results after the market close on July 22, with the management webcast set for 5:30 p.m. Eastern. Morningstar Tesla Investor Relations
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