NEW YORK, July 6, 2026, 05:02 EDT
- American Airlines Group Inc. NASDAQ:AAL was changing hands at $17.92 in early Nasdaq pre-market trading, 1.3% under its last close.
- Brent dropped 1.4% as OPEC+ set higher output goals for August, raising them by 188,000 barrels a day.
- American says its 2026 fuel bill could top $4 billion, which comes out to roughly 34% of its current market cap.
- JETS ETF lists AAL as its biggest airline position, making up 11.37% of net assets.
American Airlines Group Inc. NASDAQ:AAL is on track to resume trading after the U.S. holiday, with investors focused on the fuel relief trade again. The airline is the most responsive to fuel-price drops on earnings compared to its U.S. peers, but the stock also faces the biggest valuation pressures in the group. Nasdaq reported July 3 as closed for Independence Day. Normal trading is 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET, pre-market from 4 a.m. to 9:30 a.m. ET.
AAL was trading at $17.92 at 08:41 UTC, or 04:41 EDT, off 24 cents from its last close. The company had a market cap of $11.85 billion and a trailing P/E of about 58. That’s close to three times what United Airlines Holdings Inc. NASDAQ:UAL, Delta Air Lines Inc. NYSE:DAL and Southwest Airlines Co. NYSE:LUV trade at, looking at live data.
| Company | Ticker | Last price | Move vs prior close | Market value | P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines Group Inc. | NASDAQ:AAL | $17.92 | fell 1.3% | $11.85 bln | 57.8 |
| United Airlines Holdings Inc. | NASDAQ:UAL | $133.32 | dropped 1.3% | $43.27 bln | 11.9 |
| Delta Air Lines Inc. | NYSE:DAL | $92.75 | slipped 0.3% | $60.94 bln | 13.5 |
| Southwest Airlines Co. | NYSE:LUV | $50.25 | down 0.5% | $25.28 bln | 33.5 |
Oil prices slipped, offering airline names a clear signal ahead. Brent crude dropped $1.02 to $71.10 a barrel, and U.S. WTI lost 80 cents to $67.89. OPEC+ is raising output targets from August. Gulf exports through the Strait of Hormuz have picked up. Reuters noted no WTI settlement on Friday as U.S. markets closed early for the holiday.
| Input for airline margins | Latest reading |
|---|---|
| Brent crude | $71.10/bbl, down 1.4% |
| WTI crude | $67.89/bbl, off 1.2% |
| OPEC+ August target increase | 188,000 barrels per day |
| Gulf oil exports in June | Above 10 million barrels per day, still 40% below pre-war |
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) is staring at a jet fuel bill set to jump by more than $4 billion in 2026, roughly a third of its current market cap. The carrier flagged the hit back in April. For the first quarter, American posted revenue of $13.9 billion and a GAAP net loss of $382 million. Total debt dropped to $34.7 billion, marking its lowest point since mid-2015.
American Airlines stuck to a tight forecast, seeing second-quarter adjusted EPS between a 20-cent loss and a 20-cent gain. The airline said it expects the full-year midpoint to be about flat with 2025, even factoring in higher fuel costs. CEO Robert Isom said American is “on track for another record in the second quarter” and that “Demand for our product is growing.” American Airlines Newsroom
American cut its 2026 forecast back in April, now seeing earnings between a 40-cent loss and a $1.10 gain per share, down from its old range of $1.70 to $2.70 profit, Reuters reported. The airline said at the time it was offsetting about half the fuel cost jump in Q2, expected to get back 75% to 85% in Q3, and said it could recover over 90% if fuel stayed high into Q4.
That’s why cheaper oil is a bigger deal for AAL than for its rivals. Jefferies said every 5% cut to its $3-a-gallon 2027 fuel-price estimate adds 10% to 15% to forecast EPS for Delta, Southwest, and United — but up to 50% for American. United CEO Scott Kirby told Reuters, “We’re on a path to recovering 100% by the end of the year.” Southwest COO Andrew Watterson made the margin issue sharp: “When’s fuel going to go down?” Reuters
The index story looks less loose than what the stock screen shows. U.S. Global Jets ETF (NYSEARCA:JETS), which follows the U.S. Global Jets Index, put AAL at 11.37% of net assets as of July 1, a bigger weight than United, Southwest, or Delta in its holdings table.
| JETS holding | Google Finance ticker | Weight in ETF |
|---|---|---|
| American Airlines Group Inc. | NASDAQ:AAL | 11.37% |
| United Airlines Holdings Inc. | NASDAQ:UAL | 11.01% |
| Southwest Airlines Co. | NYSE:LUV | 10.46% |
| Delta Air Lines Inc. | NYSE:DAL | 10.44% |
Delta is up next among the big airlines. The carrier will report June-quarter earnings via webcast at 10 a.m. ET Friday, July 10. Investors are watching to see if cheaper fuel is sticking in margins, passed on through fares, or offset by costs.
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