NEW YORK, July 2, 2026, 04:20 EDT
- American Airlines Group Inc. NASDAQ:AAL ended Wednesday at $18.15, gaining 0.44%. Shares hit a 52-week high of $18.47 in the session.
- Bernstein raised its target to $23, while BofA moved its target up to $19. Both firms marked up fuel and demand assumptions.
- American is projecting 8.1 million customers for its July 4 travel window, up nearly 10% from last year. That’s compared to AAA’s forecast for just 0.2% growth in all U.S. air travel.
- Nasdaq regular hours had not started yet. The market is shut all day July 3 for the Independence Day holiday.
American Airlines Group Inc. NASDAQ:AAL heads into Thursday’s premarket as investors weigh summer demand without much new guidance on earnings. The stock finished Wednesday at $18.15, up 0.44%. Google Finance showed shares hit $18.47, matching the 52-week high.
Airline stocks didn’t move together. American climbed, but Delta Air Lines Inc. NYSE:DAL, United Airlines Holdings Inc. NASDAQ:UAL and Southwest Airlines Co. NYSE:LUV dropped Wednesday, MarketWatch data showed. The S&P 500 Index (INDEXSP:.INX) was also down.
| Wednesday market move | Change |
|---|---|
| American Airlines Group NASDAQ:AAL | up 0.44% |
| Delta Air Lines NYSE:DAL | down 0.64% |
| United Airlines Holdings NASDAQ:UAL | down 0.63% |
| Southwest Airlines NYSE:LUV | dropped 1.85% |
| S&P 500 Index (INDEXSP:.INX) | off 0.22% |
The stock is trading near the average analyst target, but this week the bullish scenario got a boost. Google Finance listed 14 analysts covering AAL in the last three months: seven rated it a buy and seven rated it a hold. No analysts had sell ratings. Their average target over 12 months was $18.18, just above where shares closed on Wednesday. The highest target was $24.
| Analyst / firm | Latest call shown | Target | Implied move from $18.15 |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Vernon / Bernstein | Buy kept | $23 | +26.7% |
| Andrew Didora / BofA Securities | Hold kept | $19 | +4.7% |
| Ravi Shanker / Morgan Stanley | Buy restated | $24 | +32.2% |
| Street average | 14-analyst average | $18.18 | +0.17% |
Bernstein’s David Vernon bumped the target on the stock up to $23 from $20, sticking with his Outperform call, according to a note on TheFly. He pointed to steady demand and softer fuel costs as reasons. TipRanks BofA’s Andrew Didora also moved his target up, raising it to $19 from $16 while maintaining a Neutral rating. BofA described a “constructive setup” due to demand and cheaper fuel, per TradingView. TradingView
The interesting detail is the difference between American’s numbers and the general travel market. American said it’s planning for 8.1 million customers on over 80,000 flights between June 25 and July 6, which would be up about 10% from last year, the airline told ABC News. AAA expects 5.85 million Americans to fly domestically during the July 4 week, just 0.2% higher than last year. The periods are different, so this isn’t a direct market share read. It’s still a decent stress test for the shares.
| Travel measure | Window | 2026 figure | Year-on-year change |
|---|---|---|---|
| American customers | June 25-July 6 | 8.1 million | Up almost 10% |
| American flights | June 25-July 6 | Over 80,000 | Up nearly 10% |
| U.S. domestic air travelers, AAA | July 4 week | 5.85 million | Up 0.2% |
| Total U.S. July 4 travelers, AAA | July 4 week | 72.2 million | Beats 71.8 million a year ago |
This is important since another move higher in the stock will depend on how the company runs things, not just breaking travel numbers. Bringing in more travelers means more revenue opportunities for American, but running more flights also adds risk if there are delays or fuel spikes, especially if July performance falls short.
American’s April outlook offers something for both bulls and bears. The airline posted a record $13.9 billion in Q1 revenue and is targeting Q2 revenue growth from 13.5% to 16.5%. But it also projected adjusted EPS for the second quarter to range from a 20 cent loss to a 20 cent gain. “Demand for our product is growing,” CEO Robert Isom said. American Airlines Newsroom
Nasdaq hadn’t started regular trading at the time of the dateline. The exchange says its market opens at 9:30 a.m. Eastern and shuts at 4 p.m., with premarket trading from 4 a.m. to 9:30 a.m. Nasdaq marks Friday, July 3, as closed for the Independence Day holiday.
