NEW YORK, July 18, 2026, 4:16 p.m. EDT
American Airlines Group Inc. NASDAQ:AAL heads into Thursday’s earnings release following an 11.6% drop over the past week. The stock closed at $14.98 on Friday, falling 3.97% that session. U.S. markets did not trade on Saturday.
American fell behind a three-peer average by 7.3 percentage points and underperformed the S&P 500 by 10.1 points. The difference highlights margin conversion as Thursday’s main focus.
In April, American projected second-quarter revenue growth between 13.5% and 16.5%. The airline’s adjusted earnings outlook was between a 20-cent loss and a 20-cent gain, with the midpoint at zero, offering minimal buffer if fuel recovery is weaker than expected.
Friday saw renewed pressure. The S&P 500 dropped 1.01%. All of the listed peers below declined by less than American.
| Company or index | July 17 close | Friday move | Weekly move |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines Group Inc. NASDAQ:AAL | $14.98 | fell 4.0% | dropped 11.6% |
| United Airlines Holdings Inc. NASDAQ:UAL | $115.41 | lost 2.9% | down 8.4% |
| Delta Air Lines Inc. NYSE:DAL | $84.17 | fell 2.9% | down 3.7% |
| Southwest Airlines Co. NYSE:LUV | $48.08 | down 2.7% | off 0.7% |
| S&P 500 | 7,457.69 | slipped 1.0% | off 1.6% |
Weekly shifts are based on July 10 and July 17 closing levels. The average drop for the three-stock peer group was 4.3%.
American projected a full-year outlook ranging from a $0.40 loss per share to a $1.10 profit per share. The company anticipated additional fuel costs exceeding $4 billion. For the second quarter, assumptions were based on fuel prices close to $4 per gallon and a partial offset through higher fares.
Leverage increases risk. At the end of March, American’s total debt stood at $34.7 billion, its lowest since mid-2015. This figure factors in leases and pension liabilities, remaining around 3.5 times the company’s $9.91 billion market capitalisation as of Friday.
United has set a new standard. The airline’s second-quarter revenue climbed 16%, approaching the upper end of American’s guidance. United reported $1.99 per adjusted share in earnings and lifted its full-year forecast to $9-$11 per share. The company anticipates almost $6 billion in additional fuel costs.
United CEO Scott Kirby stated that yields are expected to return to “reasonable pre-pandemic levels.” According to the airline, increased fares have had minimal impact on demand. This presents the benchmark for fuel cost recovery for American. Reuters
American CEO Robert Isom commented on the matter in April, maintaining expectations for “modest profitability for the year” given fuel prices at the time. That forecast will come under scrutiny in Thursday’s update. American Airlines Newsroom
Fuel prices have remained unstable. United reported that July’s increase by itself raised anticipated third-quarter expenses by $575 million, or $1.12 per share. The outlook is based on the July 14 forward curve.
American’s call is set for July 23 at 7:30 a.m. CDT. Investors are focused on third-quarter unit revenue, expectations for fuel costs, and progress on debt reduction. The outlook may be more significant than a slight quarterly beat.
Risks persist. A decline in oil may rapidly close the stock gap. Higher fares could boost guidance, while softer demand may delay debt repayment.
The zero-cent midpoint places the earnings bar low, putting greater focus on fuel recovery and debt-related cash flow.
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